{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "event_id": "fed_july_cut_2026",
  "title": "Will the Fed cut at the July FOMC?",
  "category": "Fed policy",
  "event_type": "multi_outcome",
  "as_of": "2026-07-03T15:06:19Z",
  "resolution_date": "2026-07-29",
  "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve FOMC target range decision",
  "confidence": "Medium",
  "definition_match": "medium",
  "liquidity_regime": {
    "week_ending": "2026-06-26",
    "urli": 25.75,
    "read": "Mildly supportive"
  },
  "key_drivers": [
    {
      "name": "Inflation (core PCE)",
      "stance": "HAWKISH",
      "impact": "−−",
      "detail": "core-PCE YoY 3.4% vs 3.0% 3m ago"
    },
    {
      "name": "Labor Market (unemployment)",
      "stance": "NEUTRAL",
      "impact": "0",
      "detail": "unemployment 4.2% vs 4.3% 3m ago"
    },
    {
      "name": "Treasury Yields",
      "stance": "HAWKISH",
      "impact": "−−",
      "detail": "2y yield 4.17% vs 3.79% 3m ago"
    },
    {
      "name": "Liquidity (URLI)",
      "stance": "DOVISH",
      "impact": "+",
      "detail": "URLI +25.8 (Mildly supportive)"
    }
  ],
  "market_consensus": {
    "top_outcome": "No change",
    "top_probability": 0.9079
  },
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "outcome_id": "cut_50_plus",
      "label": "50+ bps decrease",
      "market_odds": 0.0017,
      "xpower_score": 0.0133,
      "crypto_impact": "A large cut can ease discount-rate pressure, but crypto impact depends on whether the cut is growth-friendly or stress-driven.",
      "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the FOMC lowers the upper bound of the target range by more than 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.",
      "sources_live": [
        "Polymarket",
        "Kalshi"
      ]
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "cut_25",
      "label": "25 bps decrease",
      "market_odds": 0.0061,
      "xpower_score": 0.1144,
      "crypto_impact": "A standard cut can support risk if it comes with stable growth and easier liquidity conditions.",
      "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the FOMC lowers the upper bound of the target range by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.",
      "sources_live": [
        "Polymarket",
        "Kalshi"
      ]
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "no_change",
      "label": "No change",
      "market_odds": 0.9079,
      "xpower_score": 0.661,
      "crypto_impact": "No change keeps policy restrictive; crypto usually needs liquidity, yields, and dollar pressure to improve elsewhere.",
      "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the FOMC leaves the upper bound of the target range unchanged at the July 2026 meeting.",
      "sources_live": [
        "Polymarket",
        "Kalshi"
      ]
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "hike_25",
      "label": "25 bps increase",
      "market_odds": 0.0826,
      "xpower_score": 0.1776,
      "crypto_impact": "A hike would tighten financial conditions; historically negative for high-beta crypto unless growth is very strong.",
      "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target range by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.",
      "sources_live": [
        "Polymarket",
        "Kalshi"
      ]
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "hike_50_plus",
      "label": "50+ bps increase",
      "market_odds": 0.0016,
      "xpower_score": 0.0337,
      "crypto_impact": "A large hike would be a restrictive shock for risk assets and crypto beta.",
      "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target range by more than 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.",
      "sources_live": [
        "Polymarket",
        "Kalshi"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "source_rows": [
    {
      "outcome_id": "cut_50_plus",
      "outcome": "50+ bps decrease",
      "market_question": "50+ bps decrease",
      "platform": "Polymarket",
      "probability": 0.0015,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 7039246.481816002,
      "liquidity": 1761497.76406,
      "market_ref": "will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting",
      "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181",
      "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "cut_50_plus",
      "outcome": "50+ bps decrease",
      "market_question": "50+ bps decrease",
      "platform": "Kalshi",
      "probability": 0.005,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 668875.49,
      "liquidity": 0.0,
      "market_ref": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-C26",
      "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul?op_market_ticker=KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-C26",
      "last_updated": "2026-04-09T14:07:16.142028Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "cut_25",
      "outcome": "25 bps decrease",
      "market_question": "25 bps decrease",
      "platform": "Polymarket",
      "probability": 0.0065,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 5993814.307549104,
      "liquidity": 744816.18974,
      "market_ref": "will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting",
      "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181",
      "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "cut_25",
      "outcome": "25 bps decrease",
      "market_question": "25 bps decrease",
      "platform": "Kalshi",
      "probability": 0.005,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 2032844.08,
      "liquidity": 0.0,
      "market_ref": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-C25",
      "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul?op_market_ticker=KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-C25",
      "last_updated": "2026-04-09T14:07:15.799138Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "no_change",
      "outcome": "No change",
      "market_question": "No change",
      "platform": "Polymarket",
      "probability": 0.915,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 7882618.839199026,
      "liquidity": 1273803.4748,
      "market_ref": "will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting",
      "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181",
      "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "no_change",
      "outcome": "No change",
      "market_question": "No change",
      "platform": "Kalshi",
      "probability": 0.905,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 3299772.0,
      "liquidity": 0.0,
      "market_ref": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0",
      "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul?op_market_ticker=KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0",
      "last_updated": "2026-04-09T14:07:16.25048Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "hike_25",
      "outcome": "25 bps increase",
      "market_question": "25 bps increase",
      "platform": "Polymarket",
      "probability": 0.0825,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 9767256.430574076,
      "liquidity": 798301.32933,
      "market_ref": "will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting",
      "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181",
      "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "hike_25",
      "outcome": "25 bps increase",
      "market_question": "25 bps increase",
      "platform": "Kalshi",
      "probability": 0.085,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 2534932.26,
      "liquidity": 0.0,
      "market_ref": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25",
      "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul?op_market_ticker=KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25",
      "last_updated": "2026-04-09T14:07:16.349298Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "hike_50_plus",
      "outcome": "50+ bps increase",
      "market_question": "50+ bps increase",
      "platform": "Polymarket",
      "probability": 0.0015,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 5549652.008446985,
      "liquidity": 1409053.70245,
      "market_ref": "will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting",
      "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181",
      "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "hike_50_plus",
      "outcome": "50+ bps increase",
      "market_question": "50+ bps increase",
      "platform": "Kalshi",
      "probability": 0.005,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 292747.93,
      "liquidity": 0.0,
      "market_ref": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H26",
      "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul?op_market_ticker=KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H26",
      "last_updated": "2026-04-09T14:07:16.441941Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    "Polymarket Gamma",
    "Kalshi public market-data"
  ],
  "fetch_notes": [],
  "cross_platform": {
    "raw_gap": 0.01,
    "gap_outcome_id": "no_change",
    "definition_match": "medium",
    "wording_note": "Markets may differ on whether they reference the July FOMC decision, the effective date, or a broader rate-change wording. Treat cross-platform gaps as descriptive unless settlement text is identical.",
    "verdict": "fully_effective_market",
    "disclaimer": "Descriptive only. Settlement wording may make superficially similar markets non-equivalent."
  },
  "not_investment_advice": true
}