{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "event_id": "fed_rate_direction_2026",
  "title": "Fed rate path in 2026 — cut vs hike",
  "category": "Fed policy direction",
  "event_type": "binary",
  "as_of": "2026-07-03T15:06:19Z",
  "resolution_date": "2026-12-31",
  "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve FOMC target range decisions through Dec 31 2026",
  "confidence": "Low",
  "definition_match": "low",
  "liquidity_regime": {
    "week_ending": "2026-06-26",
    "urli": 25.75,
    "read": "Mildly supportive"
  },
  "key_drivers": [
    {
      "name": "Inflation (core PCE)",
      "stance": "HAWKISH",
      "impact": "−−",
      "detail": "core-PCE YoY 3.4% vs 3.0% 3m ago"
    },
    {
      "name": "Labor Market (unemployment)",
      "stance": "NEUTRAL",
      "impact": "0",
      "detail": "unemployment 4.2% vs 4.3% 3m ago"
    },
    {
      "name": "Treasury Yields",
      "stance": "HAWKISH",
      "impact": "−−",
      "detail": "2y yield 4.17% vs 3.79% 3m ago"
    },
    {
      "name": "Liquidity (URLI)",
      "stance": "DOVISH",
      "impact": "+",
      "detail": "URLI +25.8 (Mildly supportive)"
    }
  ],
  "market_consensus": {
    "top_outcome": "Hike",
    "top_probability": 0.475
  },
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "outcome_id": "cut",
      "label": "Cut",
      "market_odds": 0.2655,
      "xpower_score": 0.2749,
      "crypto_impact": "A Fed cut cycle can ease discount-rate pressure on long-duration risk assets; crypto impact depends on whether cuts are growth-supportive or stress-driven.",
      "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the Federal Reserve cuts its target range at least once before Dec 31 2026. Source: Kalshi KXRATECUT-26DEC31.",
      "sources_live": [
        "Kalshi"
      ]
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "hike",
      "label": "Hike",
      "market_odds": 0.475,
      "xpower_score": 0.7251,
      "crypto_impact": "A Fed hike would tighten financial conditions; historically bearish for high-beta crypto unless accompanied by strong macro growth.",
      "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the Federal Reserve raises its target range at least once during 2026. Source: Polymarket.",
      "sources_live": [
        "Polymarket"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "source_rows": [
    {
      "outcome_id": "cut",
      "outcome": "Cut",
      "market_question": "Will the Fed CUT by Dec 31 2026?",
      "platform": "Kalshi",
      "probability": 0.2655,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 640494.01,
      "liquidity": 0.0,
      "market_ref": "KXRATECUT-26DEC31",
      "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxratecut/fed-rate-cut/kxratecut-26dec31?op_market_ticker=KXRATECUT-26DEC31",
      "last_updated": "2026-04-09T10:26:58.534179Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    },
    {
      "outcome_id": "hike",
      "outcome": "Hike",
      "market_question": "Will the Fed HIKE in 2026?",
      "platform": "Polymarket",
      "probability": 0.475,
      "odds_label": null,
      "volume": 3406514.4140870045,
      "liquidity": 205909.0827,
      "market_ref": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
      "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
      "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z",
      "pending": false,
      "derived": false
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    "Polymarket Gamma",
    "Kalshi public market-data"
  ],
  "fetch_notes": [],
  "cross_platform": {
    "raw_gap": null,
    "gap_outcome_id": null,
    "definition_match": "low",
    "wording_note": "The two tracked platforms price OPPOSITE directional questions over a full year. Kalshi asks 'Will the Fed CUT by Dec 31 2026?' (YES = P(cut)). Polymarket asks 'Will the Fed HIKE in 2026?' (YES = P(hike)). Because the Fed can both cut AND hike at different meetings during 2026, these markets are NOT complementary: they do not sum to 1 and any derived 'hold' probability (1 − P(cut) − P(hike)) is an approximate synthetic, not a rigorous probability. Treat the implied distribution as directional context only.",
    "verdict": "insufficient_platform_overlap",
    "disclaimer": "Descriptive only. Settlement wording may make superficially similar markets non-equivalent."
  },
  "not_investment_advice": true,
  "directional_synthesis": {
    "p_cut": 0.2655,
    "p_hike": 0.475,
    "p_hold": 0.2595,
    "hold_status": "derived",
    "consistency_flag": "positive_hold",
    "consistency_explanation": "P(cut) + P(hike) = 74.0% < 1: markets imply an approximately 26.0% probability of a full-year hold scenario (no cut, no hike). Because the two questions span different directional moves over a full year, this implied hold is approximate.",
    "hedge_description": "To express a 'hold' view synthetically, a participant might consider taking the NO side on both legs: NO on 'Will the Fed cut?' (Kalshi) + NO on 'Will the Fed hike?' (Polymarket). Both legs pay only if their respective event does NOT occur. However, because these are independent questions, this is NOT a riskless position: if the Fed cuts but does not hike, the Kalshi NO leg loses while the Polymarket NO leg wins, and vice versa.",
    "hypothetical_example": "HYPOTHETICAL ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE (not a recommendation):\n  Current cache shows Kalshi 27% P(cut) and Polymarket 48% P(hike).\n  Implied P(hold) ≈ 1 − 27% − 48% = 26%.\n  A $100 stake on Kalshi NO at 73% implied odds → hypothetical payout ~$136 if Fed does NOT cut.\n  A $60 stake on Polymarket NO at 52% implied odds → hypothetical payout ~$114 if Fed does NOT hike.\n  Combined 'hold' scenario (both resolve NO): hypothetical gross payout ~$250 on $160 staked.\n  But if the Fed cuts without hiking: the Kalshi leg is lost; only Polymarket NO wins.\n  These are HYPOTHETICAL mechanics using current cached odds — not a recommendation.",
    "bold_disclaimer": "Not investment advice. Illustrative only — these two markets ask different questions over a full year (the Fed can cut and hike), so 'hold' is an approximate synthetic, NOT a riskless arbitrage. Excludes fees, slippage, settlement timing, and counterparty risk. Verify all terms with each platform before acting.",
    "live_odds_available": true
  }
}