{ "schema_version": "1.0", "source": "XPOWERFLOW Prediction Layer", "generated_at": "2026-07-03T23:28:32Z", "events": [ { "schema_version": "1.0", "event_id": "fed_july_cut_2026", "title": "Will the Fed cut at the July FOMC?", "category": "Fed policy", "event_type": "multi_outcome", "as_of": "2026-07-03T15:06:19Z", "resolution_date": "2026-07-29", "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve FOMC target range decision", "confidence": "Medium", "definition_match": "medium", "liquidity_regime": { "week_ending": "2026-06-26", "urli": 25.75, "read": "Mildly supportive" }, "key_drivers": [ { "name": "Inflation (core PCE)", "stance": "HAWKISH", "impact": "−−", "detail": "core-PCE YoY 3.4% vs 3.0% 3m ago" }, { "name": "Labor Market (unemployment)", "stance": "NEUTRAL", "impact": "0", "detail": "unemployment 4.2% vs 4.3% 3m ago" }, { "name": "Treasury Yields", "stance": "HAWKISH", "impact": "−−", "detail": "2y yield 4.17% vs 3.79% 3m ago" }, { "name": "Liquidity (URLI)", "stance": "DOVISH", "impact": "+", "detail": "URLI +25.8 (Mildly supportive)" } ], "market_consensus": { "top_outcome": "No change", "top_probability": 0.9079 }, "outcomes": [ { "outcome_id": "cut_50_plus", "label": "50+ bps decrease", "market_odds": 0.0017, "xpower_score": 0.0133, "crypto_impact": "A large cut can ease discount-rate pressure, but crypto impact depends on whether the cut is growth-friendly or stress-driven.", "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the FOMC lowers the upper bound of the target range by more than 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.", "sources_live": [ "Polymarket", "Kalshi" ] }, { "outcome_id": "cut_25", "label": "25 bps decrease", "market_odds": 0.0061, "xpower_score": 0.1144, "crypto_impact": "A standard cut can support risk if it comes with stable growth and easier liquidity conditions.", "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the FOMC lowers the upper bound of the target range by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.", "sources_live": [ "Polymarket", "Kalshi" ] }, { "outcome_id": "no_change", "label": "No change", "market_odds": 0.9079, "xpower_score": 0.661, "crypto_impact": "No change keeps policy restrictive; crypto usually needs liquidity, yields, and dollar pressure to improve elsewhere.", "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the FOMC leaves the upper bound of the target range unchanged at the July 2026 meeting.", "sources_live": [ "Polymarket", "Kalshi" ] }, { "outcome_id": "hike_25", "label": "25 bps increase", "market_odds": 0.0826, "xpower_score": 0.1776, "crypto_impact": "A hike would tighten financial conditions; historically negative for high-beta crypto unless growth is very strong.", "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target range by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.", "sources_live": [ "Polymarket", "Kalshi" ] }, { "outcome_id": "hike_50_plus", "label": "50+ bps increase", "market_odds": 0.0016, "xpower_score": 0.0337, "crypto_impact": "A large hike would be a restrictive shock for risk assets and crypto beta.", "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target range by more than 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.", "sources_live": [ "Polymarket", "Kalshi" ] } ], "source_rows": [ { "outcome_id": "cut_50_plus", "outcome": "50+ bps decrease", "market_question": "50+ bps decrease", "platform": "Polymarket", "probability": 0.0015, "odds_label": null, "volume": 7039246.481816002, "liquidity": 1761497.76406, "market_ref": "will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181", "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z", "pending": false, "derived": false }, { "outcome_id": "cut_50_plus", "outcome": "50+ bps decrease", "market_question": "50+ bps decrease", "platform": "Kalshi", "probability": 0.005, "odds_label": null, "volume": 668875.49, "liquidity": 0.0, "market_ref": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-C26", "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul?op_market_ticker=KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-C26", "last_updated": "2026-04-09T14:07:16.142028Z", "pending": false, "derived": false }, { "outcome_id": "cut_25", "outcome": "25 bps decrease", "market_question": "25 bps decrease", "platform": "Polymarket", "probability": 0.0065, "odds_label": null, "volume": 5993814.307549104, "liquidity": 744816.18974, "market_ref": "will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181", "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z", "pending": false, "derived": false }, { "outcome_id": "cut_25", "outcome": "25 bps decrease", "market_question": "25 bps decrease", "platform": "Kalshi", "probability": 0.005, "odds_label": null, "volume": 2032844.08, "liquidity": 0.0, "market_ref": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-C25", "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul?op_market_ticker=KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-C25", "last_updated": "2026-04-09T14:07:15.799138Z", "pending": false, "derived": false }, { "outcome_id": "no_change", "outcome": "No change", "market_question": "No change", "platform": "Polymarket", "probability": 0.915, "odds_label": null, "volume": 7882618.839199026, "liquidity": 1273803.4748, "market_ref": "will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-july-2026-meeting", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181", "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z", "pending": false, "derived": false }, { "outcome_id": "no_change", "outcome": "No change", "market_question": "No change", "platform": "Kalshi", "probability": 0.905, "odds_label": null, "volume": 3299772.0, "liquidity": 0.0, "market_ref": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0", "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul?op_market_ticker=KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H0", "last_updated": "2026-04-09T14:07:16.25048Z", "pending": false, "derived": false }, { "outcome_id": "hike_25", "outcome": "25 bps increase", "market_question": "25 bps increase", "platform": "Polymarket", "probability": 0.0825, "odds_label": null, "volume": 9767256.430574076, "liquidity": 798301.32933, "market_ref": "will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181", "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z", "pending": false, "derived": false }, { "outcome_id": "hike_25", "outcome": "25 bps increase", "market_question": "25 bps increase", "platform": "Kalshi", "probability": 0.085, "odds_label": null, "volume": 2534932.26, "liquidity": 0.0, "market_ref": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25", "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul?op_market_ticker=KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H25", "last_updated": "2026-04-09T14:07:16.349298Z", "pending": false, "derived": false }, { "outcome_id": "hike_50_plus", "outcome": "50+ bps increase", "market_question": "50+ bps increase", "platform": "Polymarket", "probability": 0.0015, "odds_label": null, "volume": 5549652.008446985, "liquidity": 1409053.70245, "market_ref": "will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-july-181", "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z", "pending": false, "derived": false }, { "outcome_id": "hike_50_plus", "outcome": "50+ bps increase", "market_question": "50+ bps increase", "platform": "Kalshi", "probability": 0.005, "odds_label": null, "volume": 292747.93, "liquidity": 0.0, "market_ref": "KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H26", "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26jul?op_market_ticker=KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-H26", "last_updated": "2026-04-09T14:07:16.441941Z", "pending": false, "derived": false } ], "sources": [ "Polymarket Gamma", "Kalshi public market-data" ], "fetch_notes": [], "cross_platform": { "raw_gap": 0.01, "gap_outcome_id": "no_change", "definition_match": "medium", "wording_note": "Markets may differ on whether they reference the July FOMC decision, the effective date, or a broader rate-change wording. Treat cross-platform gaps as descriptive unless settlement text is identical.", "verdict": "fully_effective_market", "disclaimer": "Descriptive only. Settlement wording may make superficially similar markets non-equivalent." }, "not_investment_advice": true }, { "schema_version": "1.0", "event_id": "fed_rate_direction_2026", "title": "Fed rate path in 2026 — cut vs hike", "category": "Fed policy direction", "event_type": "binary", "as_of": "2026-07-03T15:06:19Z", "resolution_date": "2026-12-31", "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve FOMC target range decisions through Dec 31 2026", "confidence": "Low", "definition_match": "low", "liquidity_regime": { "week_ending": "2026-06-26", "urli": 25.75, "read": "Mildly supportive" }, "key_drivers": [ { "name": "Inflation (core PCE)", "stance": "HAWKISH", "impact": "−−", "detail": "core-PCE YoY 3.4% vs 3.0% 3m ago" }, { "name": "Labor Market (unemployment)", "stance": "NEUTRAL", "impact": "0", "detail": "unemployment 4.2% vs 4.3% 3m ago" }, { "name": "Treasury Yields", "stance": "HAWKISH", "impact": "−−", "detail": "2y yield 4.17% vs 3.79% 3m ago" }, { "name": "Liquidity (URLI)", "stance": "DOVISH", "impact": "+", "detail": "URLI +25.8 (Mildly supportive)" } ], "market_consensus": { "top_outcome": "Hike", "top_probability": 0.475 }, "outcomes": [ { "outcome_id": "cut", "label": "Cut", "market_odds": 0.2655, "xpower_score": 0.2749, "crypto_impact": "A Fed cut cycle can ease discount-rate pressure on long-duration risk assets; crypto impact depends on whether cuts are growth-supportive or stress-driven.", "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the Federal Reserve cuts its target range at least once before Dec 31 2026. Source: Kalshi KXRATECUT-26DEC31.", "sources_live": [ "Kalshi" ] }, { "outcome_id": "hike", "label": "Hike", "market_odds": 0.475, "xpower_score": 0.7251, "crypto_impact": "A Fed hike would tighten financial conditions; historically bearish for high-beta crypto unless accompanied by strong macro growth.", "settlement_text": "Resolves positive if the Federal Reserve raises its target range at least once during 2026. Source: Polymarket.", "sources_live": [ "Polymarket" ] } ], "source_rows": [ { "outcome_id": "cut", "outcome": "Cut", "market_question": "Will the Fed CUT by Dec 31 2026?", "platform": "Kalshi", "probability": 0.2655, "odds_label": null, "volume": 640494.01, "liquidity": 0.0, "market_ref": "KXRATECUT-26DEC31", "market_url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxratecut/fed-rate-cut/kxratecut-26dec31?op_market_ticker=KXRATECUT-26DEC31", "last_updated": "2026-04-09T10:26:58.534179Z", "pending": false, "derived": false }, { "outcome_id": "hike", "outcome": "Hike", "market_question": "Will the Fed HIKE in 2026?", "platform": "Polymarket", "probability": 0.475, "odds_label": null, "volume": 3406514.4140870045, "liquidity": 205909.0827, "market_ref": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026", "market_url": "https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026", "last_updated": "2026-07-03T15:05:49.309635Z", "pending": false, "derived": false } ], "sources": [ "Polymarket Gamma", "Kalshi public market-data" ], "fetch_notes": [], "cross_platform": { "raw_gap": null, "gap_outcome_id": null, "definition_match": "low", "wording_note": "The two tracked platforms price OPPOSITE directional questions over a full year. Kalshi asks 'Will the Fed CUT by Dec 31 2026?' (YES = P(cut)). Polymarket asks 'Will the Fed HIKE in 2026?' (YES = P(hike)). Because the Fed can both cut AND hike at different meetings during 2026, these markets are NOT complementary: they do not sum to 1 and any derived 'hold' probability (1 − P(cut) − P(hike)) is an approximate synthetic, not a rigorous probability. Treat the implied distribution as directional context only.", "verdict": "insufficient_platform_overlap", "disclaimer": "Descriptive only. Settlement wording may make superficially similar markets non-equivalent." }, "not_investment_advice": true, "directional_synthesis": { "p_cut": 0.2655, "p_hike": 0.475, "p_hold": 0.2595, "hold_status": "derived", "consistency_flag": "positive_hold", "consistency_explanation": "P(cut) + P(hike) = 74.0% < 1: markets imply an approximately 26.0% probability of a full-year hold scenario (no cut, no hike). Because the two questions span different directional moves over a full year, this implied hold is approximate.", "hedge_description": "To express a 'hold' view synthetically, a participant might consider taking the NO side on both legs: NO on 'Will the Fed cut?' (Kalshi) + NO on 'Will the Fed hike?' (Polymarket). Both legs pay only if their respective event does NOT occur. However, because these are independent questions, this is NOT a riskless position: if the Fed cuts but does not hike, the Kalshi NO leg loses while the Polymarket NO leg wins, and vice versa.", "hypothetical_example": "HYPOTHETICAL ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE (not a recommendation):\n Current cache shows Kalshi 27% P(cut) and Polymarket 48% P(hike).\n Implied P(hold) ≈ 1 − 27% − 48% = 26%.\n A $100 stake on Kalshi NO at 73% implied odds → hypothetical payout ~$136 if Fed does NOT cut.\n A $60 stake on Polymarket NO at 52% implied odds → hypothetical payout ~$114 if Fed does NOT hike.\n Combined 'hold' scenario (both resolve NO): hypothetical gross payout ~$250 on $160 staked.\n But if the Fed cuts without hiking: the Kalshi leg is lost; only Polymarket NO wins.\n These are HYPOTHETICAL mechanics using current cached odds — not a recommendation.", "bold_disclaimer": "Not investment advice. Illustrative only — these two markets ask different questions over a full year (the Fed can cut and hike), so 'hold' is an approximate synthetic, NOT a riskless arbitrage. Excludes fees, slippage, settlement timing, and counterparty risk. Verify all terms with each platform before acting.", "live_odds_available": true } } ], "disclaimer": "Prediction-market odds and XPOWER interpretation are descriptive research, not investment advice." }