CRYPTO LIQUIDITY — MACRO TRANSMISSION + STABLECOIN FLOW + RISK ROTATION
Crypto Liquidity Monitor
Tracking whether macro liquidity is reaching BTC, ETH, SOL, alts, and crypto beta.
CRYPTO BIAS
Risk-Off
Risk-OnRisk-Off
(D) Final crypto liquidity regime
STABLECOIN SIGNAL
Drain
RotationDefensive
(D) Stablecoin supply + dominance
ROTATION SIGNAL
Mixed
Alt RotationBTC-Led
(D) BTC vs ETH / alt risk
LEVERAGE HEAT
Neutral
CoolOverheated
(D) Funding + OI + borrow cost
BTC DOMINANCE
56.06%
(D) Higher = BTC-led / defensive
ETH/BTC
0.02711
(D) 24h -0.48%
STABLECOIN DOMINANCE
13.79%
(D) Higher = more defensive cash
TOTAL3 PROXY
$793.6B
(D) Total market cap ex BTC / ETH
MACRO CONNECTION
Macro-to-Crypto Transmission
URLI
-66.50
(W) Bearish liquidity contraction
PROJECTED URLI
+43.50
(W) Next wk est. · Bullish liquidity backdrop · wide ±band
GMLCI
+22.00
(W) Mild global liquidity support
RISK GATE
Restricted
(W) Final filter before risk assets
CRYPTO TRANSMISSION
Risk-Off
(D) Stablecoins + rotation + leverage
URLI+GMLCI→Risk Gate→BTC / ETH→Crypto Beta
Liquidity can exist in the system, but it only becomes bullish for crypto when it passes through the gates and reaches Crypto Beta.
CRYPTO-NATIVE MONEY SUPPLY
Stablecoin Liquidity
TOTAL STABLECOIN SUPPLY
$314.5B
(D) 7D -0.11% · 30D -2.41%
STABLECOIN DOMINANCE
13.79%
(D) Higher = more defensive cash
USDT SUPPLY
$186.4B
(D) 7D -0.19% · 30D -1.72%
USDC SUPPLY
$74.8B
(D) 7D -0.20% · 30D -2.84%
STABLECOIN SIGNAL
Drain
RotationDefensive
(D) Supply trend + stablecoin dominance read
Stablecoin supply measures dry powder. Stablecoin dominance measures whether that dry powder is staying defensive or rotating into crypto risk.
RISK ROTATION
BTC / ETH / Alt Rotation
BTC DOMINANCE
56.06%
(D) Higher = BTC-led / defensive
ETH DOMINANCE
9.15%
(D) Used with ETH/BTC to judge broadening
SOL DOMINANCE
1.80%
(D) Higher = SOL share of total market
ETH/BTC
0.02711
(D) 24h -0.48%
TOTAL3 PROXY
$793.6B
(D) Total crypto market cap ex BTC / ETH
ROTATION SIGNAL
Mixed
Alt RotationBTC-Led
(D) Rising ETH/BTC suggests rotation beyond BTC
Rotation is the key question: liquidity may reach BTC first, but high-beta crypto needs ETH/BTC and TOTAL3 confirmation.
POSITION AGGRESSION
Funding, Borrowing & Yield APY
BTC FUNDING APY
+1.38%
ShortsLongs
(D) Longs paying shorts
ETH FUNDING APY
+1.94%
ShortsLongs
(D) Longs paying shorts
SOL FUNDING APY
-5.74%
ShortsLongs
(D) Shorts paying longs
BTC OPEN INTEREST
-4.75%
(D) $6.4B open interest
ETH OPEN INTEREST
-3.98%
(D) $3.9B open interest
SOL OPEN INTEREST
-3.01%
(D) $740.2M open interest
USDT BORROW COST APY
+3.37%
(D) Bybit public No VIP USDT hourly margin borrow rate, compounded to APY.
USDC EARNING YIELD APY
+3.12%
(D) Aave V3 USDC supply yield
FUTURES INTEREST APY
+11.57%
ShortsLongs
(D) Baseline futures interest component
LEVERAGE HEAT
Neutral
CoolOverheated
(D) Funding + OI + borrow cost
Funding and futures interest are converted from 8h rates into compounded APY. APY assumes the current 8h rate persists for a full year and compounds every funding period; it is not guaranteed yield.
INTERPRETATION
Crypto Bias Playbook
| Regime | Conditions | Crypto Read |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive | Stables rising, Risk Gate restricted, BTC dominance rising | Stay cautious; liquidity not fully deployed |
| BTC-Led | BTC dominance rising, ETH/BTC weak or flat | Liquidity reaching BTC first |
| Risk-On | ETH/BTC rising, stablecoin dominance falling, funding manageable | Broader crypto risk appetite improving |
| High-Beta Risk-On | TOTAL3 rising, ETH/BTC firm, leverage not overheated | Alts / memes receiving liquidity |
| Overheated | Funding and OI hot | Upside can continue, but flush risk is elevated |
| Risk-Off | Stablecoin supply falling, dominance defensive, BTC/ETH weak | Liquidity hiding or leaving crypto risk |
Risk-Off Current read: Risk-Off. Stablecoin signal is Drain; rotation signal is Mixed; leverage heat is Neutral.
SOURCE NOTES
| Module | Cadence | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| URLI / GMLCI | Weekly | Existing Liquidity Monitor methodology | Macro liquidity anchor |
| Stablecoin supply | Daily | DeFiLlama | Free no-auth endpoint |
| Stablecoin dominance | Daily | DeFiLlama + CoinGecko | Calculated internally |
| BTC / ETH / SOL dominance | Intraday to daily | CoinGecko (SOL only on CoinGecko; null on fallbacks) | Snapshot daily for reliability |
| ETH/BTC | Intraday | Bybit public spot | Ratio only; no token price card |
| Funding APY (BTC / ETH / SOL) | Daily snapshot from latest 8h rate | Bybit linear futures | Displayed as compounded APY; folded into leverage-heat average |
| Open interest (BTC / ETH / SOL) | Intraday / daily change | Bybit linear futures | Daily Worker source; folded into leverage-heat average |
| Futures interest APY | Daily baseline | Baseline 0.01% / 8h component | Bybit does not expose this as a live ticker field |
| USDC earning yield APY | Daily | DeFiLlama Aave V3 USDC pool | Supply / lending APY proxy |
| USDT borrow cost APY | Daily | Bybit public spot margin data | CEX borrow-cost proxy from hourly USDT borrow rate |
| Liquidations | Later | Public liquidation feed pending | Not included in leverage heat until source is reliable |
| ETF flow | Later | Public tables / scrape | Not included in MVP |
| Status labels | Daily | Crypto daily snapshot | Crypto Bias, Stablecoin Signal, Rotation Signal, Leverage Heat, Crypto Transmission, and Crypto Bias Playbook update from the daily signal snapshot |
| Macro gate labels | Weekly | URLI / GMLCI weekly run | URLI, GMLCI, and Risk Gate update during the weekly macro workflow |
| Cadence labels | (D) / (W) | Renderer convention | (D)=daily crypto snapshot; (W)=weekly manual macro run |
| Field | Source | URL | Cadence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total market cap / dominance | CoinGecko Global API | https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/global | intraday to daily |
| Stablecoin supply | DeFiLlama Stablecoins API | https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoins | daily |
| Stablecoin history | DeFiLlama Stablecoin Charts | https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoincharts/all | daily |
| ETH/BTC | Bybit Spot public API | https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=spot&symbol=ETHBTC | intraday |
| Funding / OI (BTC, ETH, SOL) | Binance USD-M Futures public API | https://fapi.binance.com | 8h to daily |
| Bitcoin Power Law daily close | Bybit Spot public API | https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/kline?category=spot&symbol=BTCUSDT&interval=D | daily |
| USDT borrow cost APY | Bybit public spot margin data / No VIP USDT | https://api.bybit.com/v5/spot-margin-trade/data?vipLevel=No%20VIP¤cy=USDT | daily |
| USDC supply APY | DeFiLlama Yields API / Aave V3 Ethereum USDC | https://yields.llama.fi/pools | daily |