XPOWER
US FED / TREASURY LIQUIDITY — WEEKLY MEMO

Week Ending 2025-06-20

Reconstructed archive: URLI-Core -53.00 (Bearish liquidity contraction); net liquidity -104.1B drain.
ARCHIVED RECONSTRUCTION — Reconstructed from frozen URLI-Core scores + FRED H.4.1; interpretation is derived, not the contemporaneous human read.
URLI Score
-53.00
Bearish liquidity contraction
Net Liquidity
-$104.1B
Huge drain
Bank Reserves
-$106.7B
Reserve drain
TGA Change
+$106.8B
Cash pulled into Treasury
RRP Change
+$1.1B
Cash parked at the Fed
Fed Regime
Archive neutral placeholder
Not reconstructed
Treasury Outlook
not reconstructed
Supportive
Market Bias
RISK OFF
Liquidity drag caps risk appetite

Executive Conclusion

Supportive
  • Frozen URLI-Core read: -53.00 (Bearish liquidity contraction).
  • Net liquidity change: -104.1B from FRED H.4.1 plumbing.
Restrictive
  • Bank reserves changed -106.7B.
  • Fed rate-path and Treasury-outlook judgment components are neutral placeholders in this archive reconstruction.
Main Warning
  • Reconstructed from frozen URLI-Core scores + FRED H.4.1; interpretation is derived, not the contemporaneous human read.

NEGATIVE URLI -53.00 — Bearish liquidity contraction.

What Changed This Week

ItemPreviousLatestChangeImpact
Fed total assets$6,677.2B$6,681.1B+$3.9B (+0.1%)POSITIVE
Bank reserves$3,429.7B$3,323.0B-$106.7B (-3.1%)NEGATIVE
TGA$277.0B$383.9B+$106.8B (+38.6%)NEGATIVE
RRP$576.1B$577.2B+$1.1B (+0.2%)NEGATIVE
Fed rate path—archive neutral placeholderNot reconstructedPOSITIVE
Dollar / yields—dollar/yields neutralNot reconstructedPOSITIVE

Previous week: 2025-06-13 (H.4.1 weekly levels).

Net Liquidity Calculation

Net Liquidity Change = Fed Balance Sheet Change - TGA Change - RRP Change
ComponentWeekly ChangeEffectNotes
Fed balance sheet+$3.9BPOSITIVEBalance-sheet growth adds liquidity.
TGA+$106.8BNEGATIVETGA up pulls cash into Treasury; TGA down injects it.
RRP+$1.1BNEGATIVERRP up parks cash at the Fed; RRP down releases it.
Net liquidity-$104.1BHUGE DRAINSum of the three flows above.
+3.9BFed BS-106.8BTGA (inverted)-1.1BRRP (inverted)-104.1BNET

URLI — US Risk Liquidity Index

URLI = 0.35 x Net Liquidity + 0.20 x Bank Reserves + 0.15 x Fed Rate Path + 0.10 x Treasury Outlook + 0.10 x Funding Stress + 0.10 x Dollar/Yield Pressure
Net Liquidity-35.00Bank Reserves-20.00Fed Rate Path+0.00Treasury Outlook+0.00Funding Stress+2.00Dollar / Yield Pressure+0.00URLI-53.00
ComponentWeightScoreContribution
Net Liquidity35%-100-35.00
Bank Reserves20%-100-20.00
Fed Rate Path15%+0+0.00
Treasury Outlook10%+0+0.00
Funding Stress10%+20+2.00
Dollar / Yield Pressure10%+0+0.00
MetricValue
Weekly URLI-53.00
4-week moving averageN/A — insufficient history
13-week moving averageN/A — insufficient history

Observed URLI history

WeekURLINet LiquidityReservesTGARRPRead
2025-06-20-53.00-$104.1B-$106.7B+$106.8B+$1.1BBEARISH LIQUIDITY CONTRACTION
8-9-27-44-61 -53.02025 URLI-Core percentile distribution gauge URLI-Core percentile 7th percentile -53.00 Min -61.00 Median +4.50 Max +62.00 N=337 frozen weekly observations; percentile uses inclusive count ≤ current value.

Observed URLI history covers completed weekly runs. Historical percentile ranking uses URLI-Core: the four data-derived components (Net Liquidity, Bank Reserves, Funding Stress, Dollar/Yield Pressure), representing 75% of URLI weight, ranked against frozen weekly FRED history since 2020 and shown in the distribution gauge above. The two policy-judgment components and 13-week live average are outside this percentile lens.

Alerts & Warnings

AlertStatusNotes
Huge liquidity drainALERTNet liquidity -104.1B breached the -$100B major threshold.
Reserve shockALERTBank reserves -106.7B, below the -$75B threshold.
RRP shockNEUTRALRRP +1.1B; below the $50B shock threshold.
Fed rate pathPOSITIVEFed rate-path judgment was not reconstructed; neutral placeholder used so the frozen URLI-Core archive read is preserved.
Funding stressPOSITIVEFrozen URLI-Core funding-stress score: +20.
Historical significanceNEGATIVEURLI-Core (4 data components, 75% weight) = -53.00 ranks in the 7th percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=337).

Market Transmission

AssetBiasReason
SPX / QQQHEADWINDBearish liquidity contraction; index-level liquidity does not support multiple expansion.
Small caps / breadthNEGATIVERate-sensitive; needs reserve support and lower yields.
BTC / ETHHEADWINDCrypto tracks net liquidity; this week's flow was -$104.1B.
High-beta altsWATCHNeed both a positive URLI trend and BTC leadership to outperform.

NEGATIVE Liquidity drag caps risk appetite.

Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios

ScenarioLiquidity SetupMarket ImpactConfirms / Invalidates
BULLTGA drawdown resumes; SOMA support continues; yields cool.Risk assets bid.Confirms: net liquidity > +$50B. Invalidates: TGA rebuild accelerates.
BASEFlat net liquidity; Treasury supply offsets SOMA.Choppy, range-bound.Confirms: stable reserves, calm SOFR. Invalidates: auction stress or USD breakout.
BEARTGA rebuild + bill supply + higher yields.Risk-off.Confirms: TGA spikes with rising yields. Invalidates: TGA drawdown and falling yields.

Sources & Data Definitions

FieldSourceType
Balance sheet / reserves / RRP / TGAFederal Reserve H.4.1Official
Verification seriesFRED WALCL / WRBWFRBL / WDTGAL / WLRRALOfficial
Fed policy / rate pathFOMC statement & minutesOfficial
Treasury outlookQuarterly Refunding StatementOfficial
Funding stress scoreFRED SOFR / IORB — 5-business-day avg SOFR−IORB spread (bps)Official
Dollar/yield scoreFRED DTWEXBGS / DGS10 — weekly Δ broad dollar (%) × Δ 10Y yield (bps)Official
MetricDefinition
Fed balance sheetH.4.1 Total assets, weekly point-in-time level.
Bank reservesH.4.1 Table 5 'Other deposits held by depository institutions' (weekly reserve balances).
TGAU.S. Treasury, General Account. TGA down is liquidity positive.
RRPReverse repurchase agreements. RRP up parks cash at the Fed.
BasisLatest week 2025-06-20; previous week 2025-06-13; H.4.1 levels in $M, displayed in $B.