GLOBAL M2 LIQUIDITY & CREDIT — ARCHIVAL MEMO
Week Ending 2025-09-05
Historical GMLCI reconstruction reflects only the two FRED-derived market-tier components (Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission). The four judgment components are not reconstructed.
Archive GMLCI
-3.00
Neutral / mixed
Funding / Dollar
-30
FRED-derived market tier
Risk Transmission
+0
FRED-derived market tier
Coverage
2 / 6
Market-tier reconstruction
Archival Reconstruction Notes
Coverage caution
- Historical GMLCI reconstruction reflects only the two FRED-derived market-tier components (Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission). The four judgment components are not reconstructed.
NEUTRAL Archive market-tier score -3.00 — Neutral / mixed.
GMLCI Market-Tier Lens
GMLCI = 0.30 x Global M2 Momentum + 0.20 x USD-Adjusted M2 + 0.15 x Central Bank Liquidity + 0.15 x Credit Impulse + 0.10 x Funding/Dollar Stress + 0.10 x Risk Transmission
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global M2 Momentum | 30% | +0 | +0.00 |
| USD-Adjusted M2 | 20% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Central Bank Liquidity | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Credit Impulse | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Funding / Dollar Stress | 10% | -30 | -3.00 |
| Risk Transmission | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Week | Archive GMLCI | Funding / Dollar | Risk Transmission | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-05 | -3.00 | -30 | +0 | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-08-29 | +2.50 | +25 | +0 | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-08-22 | -6.00 | -30 | -30 | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-08-15 | +2.50 | +0 | +25 | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-08-08 | +2.50 | +25 | +0 | NEUTRAL |
Show 7 earlier entries
| Week | Archive GMLCI | Funding / Dollar | Risk Transmission | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | -3.00 | -30 | +0 | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-07-25 | +5.00 | +50 | +0 | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-07-18 | -3.00 | -30 | +0 | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-07-11 | +2.50 | +0 | +25 | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-07-04 | +7.50 | +50 | +25 | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-06-27 | +5.00 | +25 | +25 | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-06-20 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL |
Historical GMLCI reconstruction reflects only the two FRED-derived market-tier components (Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission). The four judgment components are not reconstructed. Full GMLCI is not percentile-ranked for reconstructed archive weeks.
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Funding / Dollar Stress | FRED DTWEXBGS + BAMLH0A0HYM2 | Market |
| Risk Transmission | FRED SP500 + NASDAQCOM + CBBTCUSD | Market |
| Unreconstructed components | Global M2 Momentum, USD-Adjusted M2, Central Bank Liquidity, Credit Impulse | Documented judgment; not backfilled |