Will the Fed cut at the July FOMC?

XPOWER PREDICTION INTELLIGENCE · EVENT DETAIL MULTI-OUTCOME · 2026-07-03 15:06 UTC

‹ Back to hub Will the Fed cut at the July FOMC?

1. Summary

Market ModeNo change90.8%

XPOWER ModeNo change66.1%

XPOWER's own calculated probability — our liquidity & rates models blended with the Claude & Codex LLMs. An independent estimate shown alongside the market's, not a prediction of who's right.

As of 2026-07-03 15:06 UTC.

2. Outcome Distribution

» Market vs XPOWER probability per outcome. Δ vs Market = XPOWER − market (pp). MODE = most-likely.

Outcome	Polymarket	Kalshi	XPOWER	Δ vs Market
50+ bps decrease	0.1%	0.5%	1.3%	+1.2pp
25 bps decrease	0.7%	0.5%	11.4%	+10.8pp
No change MODE	91.5%	90.5%	66.1%	-24.7pp
25 bps increase	8.2%	8.5%	17.8%	+9.5pp
50+ bps increase	0.1%	0.5%	3.4%	+3.2pp

Platform

Market vs XPOWER Distribution — Polymarket vs XPOWER

Outcome Range       Market (Polymarket)           XPOWER probability
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
50+ bps decrease    ▓ (0%)                        ▓ (1%)
25 bps decrease     ▓ (1%)                        ▓▓ (11%)
No change           ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ (92%)        ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓ (66%)
25 bps increase     ▓ (8%)                        ▓▓▓ (18%)
50+ bps increase    ▓ (0%)                        ▓ (3%)

Sources: Polymarket 50+ bps decrease · vol $7,039,246 · Kalshi 50+ bps decrease · vol $668,875 · Kalshi 25 bps decrease · vol $2,032,844 · Kalshi No change · vol $3,299,772 · Kalshi 25 bps increase · vol $2,534,932 · Kalshi 50+ bps increase · vol $292,748

3. Market Odds by Platform

» Every venue quote + payout + volume, one row per real market.

Platform	Market / Contract	Odds	Payout ($100)	Volume	Updated
Polymarket	50+ bps decrease	▼ 0.1%	$66,667	$7,039,246	2026-07-03
Kalshi	50+ bps decrease	▼ 0.5%	$20,000	$668,875	2026-04-09
Polymarket	25 bps decrease	▼ 0.7%	$15,385	$5,993,814	2026-07-03
Kalshi	25 bps decrease	▼ 0.5%	$20,000	$2,032,844	2026-04-09
Polymarket	No change	▲ 91.5%	$109	$7,882,619	2026-07-03
Kalshi	No change	▲ 90.5%	$110	$3,299,772	2026-04-09
Polymarket	25 bps increase	▼ 8.2%	$1,212	$9,767,256	2026-07-03
Kalshi	25 bps increase	▼ 8.5%	$1,176	$2,534,932	2026-04-09
Polymarket	50+ bps increase	▼ 0.1%	$66,667	$5,549,652	2026-07-03
Kalshi	50+ bps increase	▼ 0.5%	$20,000	$292,748	2026-04-09

Payout = gross return on a $100 stake if the outcome resolves yes, at current odds (before fees/slippage).

Outbound market links may include referral codes. Venues settle by different rules — see §7 Terms.

4. Key Drivers

» Macro backdrop from live FRED data + URLI. Dovish = easier-policy pressure.

Driver	Stance	Impact	Signal
Inflation (core PCE)	HAWKISH	▼▼	core-PCE YoY 3.4% vs 3.0% 3m ago
Labor Market (unemployment)	NEUTRAL	▪	unemployment 4.2% vs 4.3% 3m ago
Treasury Yields	HAWKISH	▼▼	2y yield 4.17% vs 3.79% 3m ago
Liquidity (URLI)	DOVISH	▲	URLI +25.8 (Mildly supportive)

5. Headline News

» News feed coming soon — headline layer not yet wired.

6. Cross-Platform Read

MAX CROSS-PLATFORM GAP : 1.0%  (No change: Kalshi 90.5% vs Polymarket 91.5%)
SETTLEMENT REVIEW      : ≈0% gap after wording review.
WORDING NOTE           : see §7 Terms. Gaps are descriptive unless settlement text is identical.

7. Terms & Definition Comparison

Outcome	Resolution Summary	Def. Match
50+ bps decrease	Resolves positive if the FOMC lowers the upper bound of the target range by more than 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.	●●○
25 bps decrease	Resolves positive if the FOMC lowers the upper bound of the target range by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.	●●○
No change	Resolves positive if the FOMC leaves the upper bound of the target range unchanged at the July 2026 meeting.	●●○
25 bps increase	Resolves positive if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target range by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.	●●○
50+ bps increase	Resolves positive if the FOMC raises the upper bound of the target range by more than 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting.	●●○

Wording note: Markets may differ on whether they reference the July FOMC decision, the effective date, or a broader rate-change wording. Treat cross-platform gaps as descriptive unless settlement text is identical.

8. Export

JSON: /api/prediction/events/fed_july_cut_2026.json — machine-readable event object
Markdown: /api/prediction/events/fed_july_cut_2026.md — AI-native plain-text
Hub JSON: /api/prediction/latest.json — all events