1. Summary
XPOWER's own calculated probability — our liquidity & rates models blended with the Claude & Codex LLMs. An independent estimate shown alongside the market's, not a prediction of who's right.
As of 2026-07-03 15:06 UTC.
2. Outcome Probabilities
| Outcome | Market Odds | XPOWER | Δ vs Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut | ▼ 26.6% | 27.5% | +0.9pp |
| Hike | ▪ 47.5% | 72.5% | +25.0pp |
3. Market Odds by Platform
» Every venue quote + payout + volume, one row per real market.
| Platform | Market / Contract | Odds | Payout ($100) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Will the Fed CUT by Dec 31 2026? | ▼ 26.6% | $377 |
| Polymarket | Will the Fed HIKE in 2026? | ▪ 47.5% | $211 |
Payout = gross return on a $100 stake if the outcome resolves yes, at current odds (before fees/slippage).
Outbound market links may include referral codes. Venues settle by different rules — see §7 Terms.
4. Key Drivers
» Macro backdrop from live FRED data + URLI. Dovish = easier-policy pressure.
| Driver | Stance | Impact | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (core PCE) | HAWKISH | ▼▼ | core-PCE YoY 3.4% vs 3.0% 3m ago |
| Labor Market (unemployment) | NEUTRAL | ▪ | unemployment 4.2% vs 4.3% 3m ago |
| Treasury Yields | HAWKISH | ▼▼ | 2y yield 4.17% vs 3.79% 3m ago |
| Liquidity (URLI) | DOVISH | ▲ | URLI +25.8 (Mildly supportive) |
5. Headline News
» News feed coming soon — headline layer not yet wired.
6. Cross-Platform Read — Directional Synthesis
» Kalshi and Polymarket ask OPPOSITE questions, so their odds don't add to 100%. What's left over is the market's implied "hold". Kalshi asks "Will the Fed CUT by Dec 2026?" P(cut) = 26.6% Polymarket asks "Will the Fed HIKE in 2026?" P(hike) = 47.5% ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Implied "hold" (no change) ≈ 100% − 26.6% − 47.5% = 25.9% "Hold" is not traded directly — it is simply what is left over after cut and hike. Approximate (excludes fees and timing).
7. Terms & Definition Comparison
| Outcome | Resolution Summary | Def. Match |
|---|---|---|
| Cut | Resolves positive if the Federal Reserve cuts its target range at least once before Dec 31 2026. Source: Kalshi KXRATECUT-26DEC31. | ●○○ |
| Hike | Resolves positive if the Federal Reserve raises its target range at least once during 2026. Source: Polymarket. | ●○○ |
Wording note: The two tracked platforms price OPPOSITE directional questions over a full year. Kalshi asks 'Will the Fed CUT by Dec 31 2026?' (YES = P(cut)). Polymarket asks 'Will the Fed HIKE in 2026?' (YES = P(hike)). Because the Fed can both cut AND hike at different meetings during 2026, these markets are NOT complementary: they do not sum to 1 and any derived 'hold' probability (1 − P(cut) − P(hike)) is an approximate synthetic, not a rigorous probability. Treat the implied distribution as directional context only.
8. Export
- JSON: /api/prediction/events/fed_rate_direction_2026.json — machine-readable event object
- Markdown: /api/prediction/events/fed_rate_direction_2026.md — AI-native plain-text
- Hub JSON: /api/prediction/latest.json — all events