US FED / TREASURY LIQUIDITY — WEEKLY MEMO
Week Ending 2025-06-27
Reconstructed archive: URLI-Core +24.50 (Mildly supportive); net liquidity +23.6B injection.
URLI Score
+24.50
Mildly supportive
Net Liquidity
+$23.6B
Meaningful injection
Bank Reserves
+$24.3B
Reserve build
TGA Change
-$49.3B
Cash injection
RRP Change
+$6.9B
Cash parked
Fed Regime
Archive neutral
Not reconstructed
Treasury Outlook
Not reconstructed
Supportive
Market Bias
RISK ON
Supportive
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
- Frozen URLI-Core read: +24.50 (Mildly supportive).
- Net liquidity change: +23.6B from FRED H.4.1 plumbing.
Restrictive
- Bank reserves changed +24.3B.
- Fed rate-path and Treasury-outlook judgment components are neutral placeholders in this archive reconstruction.
Main Warning
- Reconstructed from frozen URLI-Core scores + FRED H.4.1; interpretation is derived, not the contemporaneous human read.
POSITIVE URLI +24.50 — Mildly supportive.
Early Archive Coverage
The 2D flow panel starts with the 2025-07-04 memo because the daily crypto and meme market-cap history used by that panel begins on 2025-06-29; this earlier archive memo keeps the sourced Fed/Treasury liquidity tables only.
What Changed This Week
| Item | Previous | Latest | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,681.1B | $6,662.2B | -$18.9B (-0.3%) | NEGATIVE |
| Bank reserves | $3,323.0B | $3,347.3B | +$24.3B (+0.7%) | POSITIVE |
| TGA | $383.9B | $334.6B | -$49.3B (-12.8%) | POSITIVE |
| RRP | $577.2B | $584.1B | +$6.9B (+1.2%) | NEGATIVE |
| Fed rate path | — | archive neutral placeholder | Not reconstructed | POSITIVE |
| Dollar / yields | — | dollar/yields supportive | Not reconstructed | POSITIVE |
Previous week: 2025-06-20 (H.4.1 weekly levels).
Net Liquidity Calculation
Net Liquidity Change = Fed Balance Sheet Change - TGA Change - RRP Change
| Component | Weekly Change | Effect | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | -$18.9B | NEGATIVE | Balance-sheet growth adds liquidity. |
| TGA | -$49.3B | POSITIVE | TGA up pulls cash into Treasury; TGA down injects it. |
| RRP | +$6.9B | NEGATIVE | RRP up parks cash at the Fed; RRP down releases it. |
| Net liquidity | +$23.6B | MEANINGFUL INJECTION | Sum of the three flows above. |
URLI — US Risk Liquidity Index
URLI = 0.35 x Net Liquidity + 0.20 x Bank Reserves + 0.15 x Fed Rate Path + 0.10 x Treasury Outlook + 0.10 x Funding Stress + 0.10 x Dollar/Yield Pressure
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Liquidity | 35% | +40 | +14.00 |
| Bank Reserves | 20% | +30 | +6.00 |
| Fed Rate Path | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Treasury Outlook | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Funding Stress | 10% | +20 | +2.00 |
| Dollar / Yield Pressure | 10% | +25 | +2.50 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly URLI | +24.50 |
| 4-week moving average | N/A — insufficient history |
| 13-week moving average | N/A — insufficient history |
Observed URLI history
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-27 | +24.50 | +$23.6B | +$24.3B | -$49.3B | +$6.9B | MILDLY SUPPORTIVE |
| 2025-06-20 | -53.00 | -$104.1B | -$106.7B | +$106.8B | +$1.1B | NEGATIVE |
Observed URLI history covers completed weekly runs. Historical percentile ranking uses URLI-Core: the four data-derived components (Net Liquidity, Bank Reserves, Funding Stress, Dollar/Yield Pressure), representing 75% of URLI weight, ranked against frozen weekly FRED history since 2020 and shown in the distribution gauge above. The two policy-judgment components and 13-week live average are outside this percentile lens.
Alerts & Warnings
| Alert | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Major injection / drain | NEUTRAL | Net liquidity +23.6B; no breach of the +/-$100B threshold. |
| Reserve shock | POSITIVE | Bank reserves +24.3B; inside the +/-$75B shock band. |
| TGA drawdown | POSITIVE | TGA fell -49.3B, injecting liquidity. |
| RRP shock | NEUTRAL | RRP +6.9B; below the $50B shock threshold. |
| Fed rate path | POSITIVE | Fed rate-path judgment was not reconstructed; neutral placeholder used so the frozen URLI-Core archive read is preserved. |
| Funding stress | POSITIVE | Frozen URLI-Core funding-stress score: +20. |
| Historical significance | POSITIVE | URLI-Core (4 data components, 75% weight) = +24.50 ranks in the 64th percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=337). |
Market Transmission
| Asset | Bias | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| SPX / QQQ | SUPPORTED | Mildly supportive; index-level liquidity supports multiple expansion. |
| Small caps / breadth | NEUTRAL | Rate-sensitive; needs reserve support and lower yields. |
| BTC / ETH | SUPPORTED | Crypto tracks net liquidity; this week's flow was +$23.6B. |
| High-beta alts | WATCH | Need both a positive URLI trend and BTC leadership to outperform. |
POSITIVE Supportive.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | Liquidity Setup | Market Impact | Confirms / Invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | TGA drawdown resumes; SOMA support continues; yields cool. | Risk assets bid. | Confirms: net liquidity > +$50B. Invalidates: TGA rebuild accelerates. |
| BASE | Flat net liquidity; Treasury supply offsets SOMA. | Choppy, range-bound. | Confirms: stable reserves, calm SOFR. Invalidates: auction stress or USD breakout. |
| BEAR | TGA rebuild + bill supply + higher yields. | Risk-off. | Confirms: TGA spikes with rising yields. Invalidates: TGA drawdown and falling yields. |
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Balance sheet / reserves / RRP / TGA | Federal Reserve H.4.1 | Official |
| Verification series | FRED WALCL / WRBWFRBL / WDTGAL / WLRRAL | Official |
| Fed policy / rate path | FOMC statement & minutes | Official |
| Treasury outlook | Quarterly Refunding Statement | Official |
| Funding stress score | FRED SOFR / IORB — 5-business-day avg SOFR−IORB spread (bps) | Official |
| Dollar/yield score | FRED DTWEXBGS / DGS10 — weekly Δ broad dollar (%) × Δ 10Y yield (bps) | Official |
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | H.4.1 Total assets, weekly point-in-time level. |
| Bank reserves | H.4.1 Table 5 'Other deposits held by depository institutions' (weekly reserve balances). |
| TGA | U.S. Treasury, General Account. TGA down is liquidity positive. |
| RRP | Reverse repurchase agreements. RRP up parks cash at the Fed. |
| Basis | Latest week 2025-06-27; previous week 2025-06-20; H.4.1 levels in $M, displayed in $B. |