US FED / TREASURY LIQUIDITY — WEEKLY MEMO
Week Ending 2025-10-17
Reconstructed archive: URLI-Core -24.50 (Mild liquidity drain); net liquidity -44.3B drain.
URLI Score
-24.50
Mild liquidity drain
Net Liquidity
-$44.3B
Meaningful drain
Bank Reserves
-$45.7B
Reserve drain
TGA Change
+$57.9B
Cash pulled into Treasury
RRP Change
-$7.9B
Cash released
Fed Regime
Archive neutral placeholder
Not reconstructed
Treasury Outlook
not reconstructed
Supportive
Market Bias
RISK OFF
Liquidity drag caps risk appetite
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
- Frozen URLI-Core read: -24.50 (Mild liquidity drain).
- Net liquidity change: -44.3B from FRED H.4.1 plumbing.
Restrictive
- Bank reserves changed -45.7B.
- Fed rate-path and Treasury-outlook judgment components are neutral placeholders in this archive reconstruction.
Main Warning
- Reconstructed from frozen URLI-Core scores + FRED H.4.1; interpretation is derived, not the contemporaneous human read.
NEGATIVE URLI -24.50 — Mild liquidity drain.
WEEKLY LIQUIDITY MAP
Liquidity Waterline
Every node is a water tank: the solid fill is this week's level, the dashed line is last week, and the faint line is the 3-month average. Funding sources feed net liquidity, which flows through the risk gate to crypto markets. Fill colour marks liquidity effect, not raw level.
Funding Sources
TGA+$57.9BDRAIN
Fed B/S+$5.6BADD
Reserves-$45.7BWATCH
RRP-$7.9BNEUTRAL
Net Liquidity
US Net Cash-44.3BDRAIN
Risk Gate
Risk AssetsURLI -24.5DRAIN
Crypto Markets
AddDrainWatchNeutralLast week3-month avg
Liquidity tanks update weekly (Fed H.4.1 / FRED · as of Oct 17, 2025). Crypto & meme market cap sampled at week close (CoinGecko · as of Jun 22, 2026). Updated weekly. AI-readable: JSON · Markdown.
What Changed This Week
| Item | Previous | Latest | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,590.8B | $6,596.5B | +$5.6B (+0.1%) | POSITIVE |
| Bank reserves | $3,033.9B | $2,988.2B | -$45.7B (-1.5%) | NEGATIVE |
| TGA | $794.1B | $852.0B | +$57.9B (+7.3%) | NEGATIVE |
| RRP | $355.8B | $347.9B | -$7.9B (-2.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Fed rate path | — | archive neutral placeholder | Not reconstructed | POSITIVE |
| Dollar / yields | — | dollar/yields supportive | Not reconstructed | POSITIVE |
Previous week: 2025-10-10 (H.4.1 weekly levels).
Net Liquidity Calculation
Net Liquidity Change = Fed Balance Sheet Change - TGA Change - RRP Change
| Component | Weekly Change | Effect | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | +$5.6B | POSITIVE | Balance-sheet growth adds liquidity. |
| TGA | +$57.9B | NEGATIVE | TGA up pulls cash into Treasury; TGA down injects it. |
| RRP | -$7.9B | POSITIVE | RRP up parks cash at the Fed; RRP down releases it. |
| Net liquidity | -$44.3B | MEANINGFUL DRAIN | Sum of the three flows above. |
URLI — US Risk Liquidity Index
URLI = 0.35 x Net Liquidity + 0.20 x Bank Reserves + 0.15 x Fed Rate Path + 0.10 x Treasury Outlook + 0.10 x Funding Stress + 0.10 x Dollar/Yield Pressure
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Liquidity | 35% | -40 | -14.00 |
| Bank Reserves | 20% | -70 | -14.00 |
| Fed Rate Path | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Treasury Outlook | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Funding Stress | 10% | +10 | +1.00 |
| Dollar / Yield Pressure | 10% | +25 | +2.50 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly URLI | -24.50 |
| 4-week moving average | -8.12 |
| 13-week moving average | -14.73 |
Observed URLI history
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-17 | -24.50 | -$44.3B | -$45.7B | +$57.9B | -$7.9B | MILD LIQUIDITY DRAIN |
| 2025-10-10 | +38.25 | +$58.0B | +$54.3B | -$25.3B | -$28.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-10-03 | -34.25 | -$58.2B | -$20.1B | +$61.4B | -$24.5B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-26 | -12.00 | +$11.2B | -$20.7B | -$49.2B | +$37.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-19 | -51.50 | -$125.5B | -$130.6B | +$139.6B | -$11.4B | NEGATIVE |
Show 13 earlier entries
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-12 | -2.50 | -$16.0B | -$17.0B | +$5.6B | +$14.2B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-09-05 | -26.00 | -$43.0B | -$48.9B | +$66.1B | -$24.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-29 | -44.25 | -$78.9B | -$80.8B | +$69.7B | -$5.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-22 | -29.00 | -$32.7B | -$30.7B | +$10.6B | -$3.1B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-15 | +2.00 | -$4.7B | -$2.0B | +$51.2B | -$43.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-08-08 | +35.00 | +$33.2B | +$30.7B | +$44.9B | -$79.8B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-08-01 | -41.25 | -$59.7B | -$58.7B | +$85.9B | -$41.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-07-25 | -1.50 | -$15.3B | -$16.7B | +$21.5B | -$7.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-07-18 | +23.00 | +$31.4B | +$33.0B | +$1.0B | -$35.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-07-11 | +48.25 | +$84.9B | +$85.5B | -$61.2B | -$21.4B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-07-04 | -42.75 | -$87.3B | -$90.8B | +$37.7B | +$47.1B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-06-27 | +24.50 | +$23.6B | +$24.3B | -$49.3B | +$6.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-06-20 | -53.00 | -$104.1B | -$106.7B | +$106.8B | +$1.1B | NEGATIVE |
Observed URLI history covers completed weekly runs. Historical percentile ranking uses URLI-Core: the four data-derived components (Net Liquidity, Bank Reserves, Funding Stress, Dollar/Yield Pressure), representing 75% of URLI weight, ranked against frozen weekly FRED history since 2020 and shown in the distribution gauge above. The two policy-judgment components and 13-week live average are outside this percentile lens.
Alerts & Warnings
| Alert | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Major injection / drain | NEUTRAL | Net liquidity -44.3B; no breach of the +/-$100B threshold. |
| Reserve shock | NEGATIVE | Bank reserves -45.7B; inside the +/-$75B shock band. |
| RRP shock | NEUTRAL | RRP -7.9B; below the $50B shock threshold. |
| Fed rate path | POSITIVE | Fed rate-path judgment was not reconstructed; neutral placeholder used so the frozen URLI-Core archive read is preserved. |
| Funding stress | POSITIVE | Frozen URLI-Core funding-stress score: +10. |
| Historical significance | NEGATIVE | URLI-Core (4 data components, 75% weight) = -24.50 ranks in the 29th percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=337). |
Market Transmission
| Asset | Bias | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| SPX / QQQ | HEADWIND | Mild liquidity drain; index-level liquidity does not support multiple expansion. |
| Small caps / breadth | NEGATIVE | Rate-sensitive; needs reserve support and lower yields. |
| BTC / ETH | HEADWIND | Crypto tracks net liquidity; this week's flow was -$44.3B. |
| High-beta alts | WATCH | Need both a positive URLI trend and BTC leadership to outperform. |
NEGATIVE Liquidity drag caps risk appetite.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | Liquidity Setup | Market Impact | Confirms / Invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | TGA drawdown resumes; SOMA support continues; yields cool. | Risk assets bid. | Confirms: net liquidity > +$50B. Invalidates: TGA rebuild accelerates. |
| BASE | Flat net liquidity; Treasury supply offsets SOMA. | Choppy, range-bound. | Confirms: stable reserves, calm SOFR. Invalidates: auction stress or USD breakout. |
| BEAR | TGA rebuild + bill supply + higher yields. | Risk-off. | Confirms: TGA spikes with rising yields. Invalidates: TGA drawdown and falling yields. |
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Balance sheet / reserves / RRP / TGA | Federal Reserve H.4.1 | Official |
| Verification series | FRED WALCL / WRBWFRBL / WDTGAL / WLRRAL | Official |
| Fed policy / rate path | FOMC statement & minutes | Official |
| Treasury outlook | Quarterly Refunding Statement | Official |
| Funding stress score | FRED SOFR / IORB — 5-business-day avg SOFR−IORB spread (bps) | Official |
| Dollar/yield score | FRED DTWEXBGS / DGS10 — weekly Δ broad dollar (%) × Δ 10Y yield (bps) | Official |
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | H.4.1 Total assets, weekly point-in-time level. |
| Bank reserves | H.4.1 Table 5 'Other deposits held by depository institutions' (weekly reserve balances). |
| TGA | U.S. Treasury, General Account. TGA down is liquidity positive. |
| RRP | Reverse repurchase agreements. RRP up parks cash at the Fed. |
| Basis | Latest week 2025-10-17; previous week 2025-10-10; H.4.1 levels in $M, displayed in $B. |