GLOBAL M2 LIQUIDITY & CREDIT — WEEKLY MEMO
Week Ending 2026-07-10
US plumbing extended its liquidity-positive run for a third week (TGA -$58.1B, reserves +$60.4B, net liquidity +$59.1B) and risk-transmission channels stayed firm -- S&P +1.2%, Nasdaq +1.7%, BTC +2.4% -- even as global central-bank liquidity was mixed: the ECB's balance sheet fell a sharp -€134.2B on quarter-end effects while the Fed's grew modestly. Japan's M2 confirmed +2.5% YoY.
GMLCI Score
+23.75
Mild global liquidity support
Global M2 Momentum
+50
Broad money trend
USD-Adjusted M2
+20
FX-adjusted research proxy
Central Bank Liquidity
+10
Fed / ECB / BOJ / PBOC / BOE
Credit Impulse
+5
Quantity, breadth, pricing
Funding / Dollar
+0
HY OAS 2.70%
Risk Transmission
+25
BTC 2.4% wk
Gold (XAU/USD)
$4,121
-1.2% weekly
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
- US M2 5.6% YoY (2026-05); Euro area M3 2.7% YoY (2026-04).
- China M2 CNY 353.67T, TBD YoY (2026-05).
- US HY spreads at 2.70% with a -4bp weekly move.
Restrictive
- China M2 May level 353.67T CNY (PBOC release confirmed); YoY still unconfirmed for May (April was 8.6%); credit transmission read carried forward pending the mid-July TSF/new-loans release.
- Broad USD index moved 0.0% over the weekly window.
- BTC changed 2.4% and gold -1.2% over the week.
Main Warning
- Treasury has now confirmed a bill-auction-size increase to rebuild the TGA toward its ~$1T late-July target (Treasury Outlook score cut to -30), and market-implied September hike odds have risen past 50% even as the June dot plot holds steady. US bank credit (H.8) contracted -$36.3B on the week, the first pullback in recent prints.
POSITIVE GMLCI +23.75 — Mild global liquidity support.
GMLCI — Global M2 Liquidity & Credit Index
GMLCI = 0.30 x Global M2 Momentum + 0.20 x USD-Adjusted M2 + 0.15 x Central Bank Liquidity + 0.15 x Credit Impulse + 0.10 x Funding/Dollar Stress + 0.10 x Risk Transmission
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global M2 Momentum | 30% | +50 | +15.00 |
| USD-Adjusted M2 | 20% | +20 | +4.00 |
| Central Bank Liquidity | 15% | +10 | +1.50 |
| Credit Impulse | 15% | +5 | +0.75 |
| Funding / Dollar Stress | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Risk Transmission | 10% | +25 | +2.50 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly GMLCI | +23.75 |
| 4-week moving average | +20.75 |
| 13-week moving average | +13.85 · 4 of 13 reconstructed (4-week MA is fully live) |
GMLCI history (release-aware)
| Week | GMLCI | Global M2 | USD-Adj | Credit | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | +23.75 | +50 | +20 | +5 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-03 | +25.25 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-26 | +12.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-19 | +22.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-12 | +8.50 | +50 | +10 | -20 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
Show 51 earlier entries
| Week | GMLCI | Global M2 | USD-Adj | Credit | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | +14.50 | +50 | +40 | -10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-29 | +22.50 | +60 | +30 | -10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-22 | +11.00 | +50 | +10 | -20 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-15 | +23.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-08 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-05-01 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-24 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-17 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-10 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-03 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-27 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-20 | -7.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-13 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-06 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-27 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-20 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-13 | -0.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY DRAG |
| 2026-01-30 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-23 | -0.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-16 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-09 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-02 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-26 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-19 | -7.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-12 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-05 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-28 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-21 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-14 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-07 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-31 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-24 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-17 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-10 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-03 | +2.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-26 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-19 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-12 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-05 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-29 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-22 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-15 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-08 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-01 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-25 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-18 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-11 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-04 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-06-27 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-06-20 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
Each weekly score uses only releases public by that week ending; history is not rewritten when later data arrives. The gauge ranks only the FRED-derived 20% market tier — Funding/Dollar Stress plus Risk Transmission — versus frozen 2020+ history. The four judgment components are outside this lens; the full GMLCI is not percentile-ranked.
Market-Stress Alert
| Alert | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Market-Stress percentile (20% tier) | POSITIVE | Market-Stress (20% tier) = +2.50 ranks in the 75th percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=155). This ranks only Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission; the full GMLCI is not percentile-ranked. |
Global Liquidity Dashboard
Broad money (release-aware)
| Bloc | Level | Growth | Reference Month | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US M2 | $23.05T | 5.6% YoY | 2026-05 | POSITIVE |
| Euro area M3 | — | 2.7% YoY | 2026-04 | NEUTRAL |
| China M2 | CNY 353.67T | TBD YoY | 2026-05 | POSITIVE |
| Japan M2 | JPY 1298.1T | 2.5% YoY | 2026-05 | POSITIVE |
| UK M4ex | — | TBD YoY / £11.0B flow MoM | 2026-05 | NEUTRAL |
Market transmission (weekly)
| Series | Latest | Weekly Change | As Of | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad USD index | 120.69 | 0.0% | 2026-07-02 | NEUTRAL |
| US HY OAS | 2.70% | -4bp | 2026-07-09 | POSITIVE |
| S&P 500 | 7,575.39 | 1.2% | 2026-07-10 | POSITIVE |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,281.61 | 1.7% | 2026-07-10 | POSITIVE |
| Bitcoin | $64,057 | 2.4% | 2026-07-10 | POSITIVE |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,121.05 | -1.2% | 2026-07-10 | NEGATIVE |
Monthly releases are carried forward until a new official release is public. Market series use the latest observation available by the report week. Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission scores are FRED-derived from the market inputs shown above. Gold is a tracked confirmation layer, not an independently scored GMLCI component.
Central Bank Liquidity
| Central Bank | Latest Input | Read | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | US URLI memo (companion report) | POSITIVE | See the US memo for reserves, TGA, RRP, and net-liquidity plumbing. |
| ECB | EUR 5,983.0B / -134.2B wk | NEGATIVE | Policy-purpose securities changed -1.7B (statement 2026-07-03). |
| BOJ | M2 2.5% YoY | POSITIVE | Money-stock reference month: 2026-05. |
| PBOC | M2 TBD YoY | NEGATIVE | China M2 May level 353.67T CNY (PBOC release confirmed); YoY still unconfirmed for May (April was 8.6%); credit transmission read carried forward pending the mid-July TSF/new-loans release. |
| BOE | M4ex TBD YoY | NEUTRAL | Reference month: 2026-05. |
Global Credit Map
| Credit Layer | Latest | Read | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| US bank credit (H.8) | $19,615.1B / -36.3B wk | NEGATIVE | Released 2026-07-10; observation covers 2026-07-01. |
| C&I loans | $2,878.1B / -24.5B | NEUTRAL | Business-credit channel. |
| Real-estate loans | $5,803.3B / -1.0B | NEUTRAL | Credit-breadth channel. |
| Consumer loans | $1,900.1B / +3.1B | POSITIVE | Household channel. |
| China TSF / RMB loans | Release-aware read | NEGATIVE | China M2 May level 353.67T CNY (PBOC release confirmed); YoY still unconfirmed for May (April was 8.6%); credit transmission read carried forward pending the mid-July TSF/new-loans release. |
| BIS cross-border / FX credit | Quarterly context layer | NEUTRAL | BIS total credit and Global Liquidity Indicators; not a weekly datapoint. |
| Credit pricing | HY OAS 2.70% (-4bp) | POSITIVE | Market-pricing confirmation layer. |
NEUTRAL Credit is scored as a layered transmission check, not a single headline datapoint.
Next Week Watchlist
Scheduled / probable focus
- Watch the July 14 CPI print, this week's bill auctions (13-week/26-week July 13, 6-week July 14), the ~$119B in Note/Bond settlements landing July 15, whether the ~$284B calendar-model TGA drawdown materializes, and the next FOMC (July 28-29).
- Monitor broad USD, HY spreads, and gold for confirmation or invalidation.
- Compare the companion URLI memo: global money can stay supportive while US plumbing drains risk liquidity.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | Setup | Market Impact | Confirms / Invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | USD-adjusted M2 strengthens; China credit broadens; HY spreads stay tight. | Supports equities, EM, BTC, high beta. | Confirms: GMLCI > +40. Invalidates: USD spike or spread widening. |
| BASE | Broad money grows but credit transmission stays mixed. | Selective risk support. | Confirms: GMLCI +10 to +39. Invalidates: China credit weakens further. |
| BEAR | USD-adjusted M2 contracts; credit and funding stress worsen. | Risk-off, high-beta pressure. | Confirms: GMLCI < -40. Invalidates: USD weakens and credit broadens. |
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| US M2 | Federal Reserve H.6 / FRED M2SL | Official |
| Euro M3 / loans | ECB monetary developments | Official |
| ECB balance sheet | ECB weekly financial statement | Official |
| China M2 / TSF | PBOC releases | Official |
| Japan M2 | BOJ money stock | Official |
| UK M4ex | BOE money and credit | Official |
| US bank credit | Federal Reserve H.8 | Official |
| USD / HY / equities / BTC | FRED DTWEXBGS, BAMLH0A0HYM2, SP500, NASDAQCOM, CBBTCUSD | Market |
| Gold spot | Public XAU/USD spot snapshots | Market (secondary) |
| Cross-border credit | BIS Global Liquidity Indicators | Official (quarterly) |
Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission are FRED-derived at week creation. Global M2 Momentum, USD-Adjusted M2, Central Bank Liquidity, and Credit Impulse remain documented research/judgment components until complete keyless feeds are available.