US FED / TREASURY LIQUIDITY — WEEKLY MEMO
Week Ending 2026-06-12
Liquidity injection: Fed assets rose, TGA fell, RRP fell, and reserves rebounded.
URLI Score
+29.75
Mildly supportive
Net Liquidity
+$67.0B
Meaningful injection
Bank Reserves
+$65.8B
Reserve build
TGA Change
-$44.6B
Treasury cash injection
RRP Change
-$8.5B
Cash released
Fed Regime
Hold with hike risk
3.50%-3.75%
Treasury Outlook
TGA rebuild expected
Forward liquidity risk
Market Bias
RISK ON
Liquidity supportive; yields still matter
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
- Fed total assets rose +$13.9B.
- TGA fell -$44.6B, pushing cash back into the system.
- RRP fell -$8.5B, releasing cash from the Fed.
- Bank reserves rose +$65.8B.
- Funding markets remain calm; no emergency stress visible.
Restrictive
- Rate path stays restrictive with hike risk priced for 2027.
- DGS10 rose +6 bps and DTWEXBGS rose +0.4% vs June 3; both moves within flat bands, so dollar/yield score = 0, but a directional drift worth monitoring.
- TGA is now well below Treasury's end-June cash-balance assumption, so rebuild risk remains.
Main Warning
- Main risk next week is a hawkish FOMC/SEP or renewed TGA rebuild that offsets this week's liquidity injection.
POSITIVE URLI +29.75 — Mildly supportive.
What Changed This Week
| Item | Previous | Latest | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,711.5B | $6,725.4B | +$13.9B (+0.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Bank reserves | $3,045.7B | $3,111.5B | +$65.8B (+2.2%) | POSITIVE |
| TGA | $845.7B | $801.1B | -$44.6B (-5.3%) | POSITIVE |
| RRP | $325.8B | $317.3B | -$8.5B (-2.6%) | POSITIVE |
| Fed rate path | — | hold with hike risk | 3.50%-3.75% | NEGATIVE |
| Dollar / yields | — | dollar flat; yields flat (+6 bps) | Broad USD 119.91 (FRED DTWEXBGS, 2026-06-10); prior 119.38 (2026-06-03) | POSITIVE |
Previous week: 2026-06-05 (H.4.1 weekly levels).
Fed Balance Sheet Detail
| Indicator | Latest | Weekly Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,725.4B | +$13.9B (+0.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Securities held outright | $6,447.1B | +$10.6B (+0.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Treasury securities | $4,479.9B | +$10.6B (+0.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Bank reserves | $3,111.5B | +$65.8B (+2.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Discount window | $6.7B | +$0.5B (+8.8%) | WATCH |
H.4.1 Table 5 weekly levels in millions of dollars, from the Federal Reserve H.4.1 release dated June 11, 2026 for Wednesday June 10, 2026. Bank reserves use Table 5 'Other deposits held by depository institutions'. FRED helper failed local SSL verification during the run, so values were read directly from the official H.4.1 page.
Net Liquidity Calculation
Net Liquidity Change = Fed Balance Sheet Change - TGA Change - RRP Change
| Component | Weekly Change | Effect | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | +$13.9B | POSITIVE | Balance-sheet growth adds liquidity. |
| TGA | -$44.6B | POSITIVE | TGA up pulls cash into Treasury; TGA down injects it. |
| RRP | -$8.5B | POSITIVE | RRP up parks cash at the Fed; RRP down releases it. |
| Net liquidity | +$67.0B | MEANINGFUL INJECTION | Sum of the three flows above. |
URLI — US Risk Liquidity Index
URLI = 0.35 x Net Liquidity + 0.20 x Bank Reserves + 0.15 x Fed Rate Path + 0.10 x Treasury Outlook + 0.10 x Funding Stress + 0.10 x Dollar/Yield Pressure
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Liquidity | 35% | +75 | +26.25 |
| Bank Reserves | 20% | +70 | +14.00 |
| Fed Rate Path | 15% | -50 | -7.50 |
| Treasury Outlook | 10% | -50 | -5.00 |
| Funding Stress | 10% | +20 | +2.00 |
| Dollar / Yield Pressure | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly URLI | +29.75 |
| 4-week moving average | -17.19 |
| 13-week moving average | N/A — insufficient history |
Observed URLI history
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | +31.25 | +$70.7B | +$65.9B | -$55.3B | +$3.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-05-22 | -23.50 | -$5.7B | -$10.7B | -$25.4B | +$16.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-29 | -41.50 | -$28.2B | -$39.7B | +$60.7B | -$41.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-06-05 | -33.50 | -$20.9B | -$21.4B | +$3.1B | +$24.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-06-12 | +29.75 | +$67.0B | +$65.8B | -$44.6B | -$8.5B | MILDLY SUPPORTIVE |
| 2026-06-19 | -66.50 | -$162.7B | -$175.1B | +$155.4B | +$18.3B | NEGATIVE |
Observed URLI history covers completed weekly runs. Historical percentile ranking uses URLI-Core: the four data-derived components (Net Liquidity, Bank Reserves, Funding Stress, Dollar/Yield Pressure), representing 75% of URLI weight, ranked against frozen weekly FRED history since 2020 and shown in the distribution gauge above. The two policy-judgment components and 13-week live average are outside this percentile lens.
Forward View
Projected URLI — 2026-06-19 estimate
| Item | Estimate | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| Projected URLI point | -38.50 | MILD LIQUIDITY DRAIN |
| Backtested URLI range | -65.50 to +29.75 | RANGE |
| Projected net liquidity | -$157.7B to $68.6B | NEUTRAL |
| Confidence | Model backtest cleared: RMSE $113.2B vs naive $142.9B; hit rate 58.0%. Manual review required for calendar-risk flags. | WATCH |
| Backtest gate | RMSE improvement 20.81% | MODEL |
| Component | Projected Change | Method |
|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | -0.8B | Trailing 4-week mean |
| TGA | +46.0B | Treasury settlements minus maturities |
| RRP | -2.3B | Trailing 4-week mean |
| Net liquidity | -44.5B | Fed BS - TGA - RRP |
Model track record: last 5 completed projections hit 4/5; mean absolute URLI error 28.40.
Assumptions
- TGA projected from Treasury settlements ($614.0B) minus maturities ($568.0B) for the Thursday-Wednesday week.
- Fed balance sheet change carries forward the trailing 4-week mean: -0.8B.
- RRP change carries forward the trailing 4-week mean: -2.3B.
- Projected bank reserves use net liquidity as a reserve-identity approximation; actual reserves can differ.
- Fed rate path, Treasury outlook, funding stress, and dollar/yield scores are held at the latest actual week.
- 2026-06-14 quarterly tax/FOMC-adjacent window; manual review required.
- 2026-06-15 tax-date watch: potential Treasury cash inflow / liquidity drain.
- 2026-06-15 quarterly tax/FOMC-adjacent window; manual review required.
- 2026-06-16 quarterly tax/FOMC-adjacent window; manual review required.
- 2026-06-17 quarterly tax/FOMC-adjacent window; manual review required.
- Scheduled FOMC risk may fall near this projection window; verify the official Fed calendar manually.
Projection is a model-derived scenario with a measured historical error band, not an observed URLI value. It is replaced by actual H.4.1 / TGA / RRP data in the next weekly run.
Next-week liquidity calendar
| Date | Event | Expected Size | Liquidity Effect | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | 13-week and 26-week Treasury bill auction / settlement watch | Auction announcement required | Coupon settlement and bill auction cash flows can drain liquidity if cash moves into Treasury | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-06-16 | 6-week and 52-week bill auction / FOMC meeting begins | Auction announcement required | Bill settlement can rebuild TGA and drain reserves unless offset by RRP release | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-06-17 | FOMC decision / SEP and 17-week bill auction | Auction announcement required | No direct flow from FOMC; auction and settlement flows are cash-flow dependent | WATCH |
| 2026-06-18 | 4-week and 8-week bill auction / post-FOMC funding watch | Auction announcement required | Treasury cash flow versus remaining SOMA support | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-06-19 | Post-FOMC rates and funding follow-through | N/A | No direct flow; can tighten or ease financial conditions via yields and Fed path | WATCH |
| Mid-June 2026 | NY Fed SOMA Treasury purchase schedule rollover | New monthly schedule required after the May 14-June 11 period | Technical reserve support if purchase operations continue | WATCH |
| 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-17 | FOMC meeting and Summary of Economic Projections | N/A | No direct flow; major rate-path and financial-conditions event | WATCH |
| June 2026 | TGA rebuild / bill-CMB pressure watch | Path depends on Treasury cash balance and bill settlement | Potential TGA rebuild / reserve drain | WATCH |
Alerts & Warnings
| Alert | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Major injection / drain | NEUTRAL | Net liquidity +67.0B; no breach of the +/-$100B threshold. |
| Reserve shock | POSITIVE | Bank reserves +65.8B; inside the +/-$75B shock band. |
| TGA rebuild risk | WATCH | Treasury assumes a $900B cash balance at end-June and says TGA could peak near $1T +/- $50B in late July; the June 10 Wednesday TGA level fell to roughly $801B, so a renewed rebuild remains a forward drain risk. |
| RRP shock | NEUTRAL | RRP -8.5B; below the $50B shock threshold. |
| Fed rate path | NEGATIVE | April 29, 2026 FOMC held the target range at 3.50%-3.75%; May 20 minutes showed market-implied expectations of little change this year and options pricing around a 30% hike probability by Q1 2027. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is June 16-17. |
| Funding stress | POSITIVE | FRED-derived: -3.60 bps avg SOFR−IORB (2026-06-04 to 2026-06-10, 5 business days). SOFR below IORB; reserve-abundant conditions confirm no funding stress. |
| Historical significance | POSITIVE | URLI-Core (4 data components, 75% weight) = +42.25 ranks in the 83rd percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=337). |
Market Transmission
| Asset | Bias | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| SPX / QQQ | SUPPORTED | Mildly supportive; index-level liquidity supports multiple expansion. |
| Small caps / breadth | NEUTRAL | Rate-sensitive; needs reserve support and lower yields. |
| BTC / ETH | SUPPORTED | Crypto tracks net liquidity; this week's flow was +$67.0B. |
| High-beta alts | WATCH | Need both a positive URLI trend and BTC leadership to outperform. |
POSITIVE Liquidity supportive; yields still matter.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | Liquidity Setup | Market Impact | Confirms / Invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | TGA drawdown resumes; SOMA support continues; yields cool. | Risk assets bid. | Confirms: net liquidity > +$50B. Invalidates: TGA rebuild accelerates. |
| BASE | Flat net liquidity; Treasury supply offsets SOMA. | Choppy, range-bound. | Confirms: stable reserves, calm SOFR. Invalidates: auction stress or USD breakout. |
| BEAR | TGA rebuild + bill supply + higher yields. | Risk-off. | Confirms: TGA spikes with rising yields. Invalidates: TGA drawdown and falling yields. |
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Balance sheet / reserves / RRP / TGA | Federal Reserve H.4.1 | Official |
| Verification series | FRED WALCL / WRBWFRBL / WDTGAL / WLRRAL | Official |
| Fed policy / rate path | FOMC statement & minutes | Official |
| Treasury outlook | Quarterly Refunding Statement | Official |
| Funding stress score | FRED SOFR / IORB — 5-business-day avg SOFR−IORB spread (bps) | Official |
| Dollar/yield score | FRED DTWEXBGS / DGS10 — weekly Δ broad dollar (%) × Δ 10Y yield (bps) | Official |
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | H.4.1 Total assets, weekly point-in-time level. |
| Bank reserves | H.4.1 Table 5 'Other deposits held by depository institutions' (weekly reserve balances). |
| TGA | U.S. Treasury, General Account. TGA down is liquidity positive. |
| RRP | Reverse repurchase agreements. RRP up parks cash at the Fed. |
| Basis | Latest week 2026-06-12; previous week 2026-06-05; H.4.1 levels in $M, displayed in $B. |