GLOBAL M2 LIQUIDITY & CREDIT — WEEKLY MEMO
Week Ending 2026-09-04
Global liquidity turned mildly supportive while the money tier held: US net liquidity +$19.8B as the TGA drew down -$15.1B to $944.4B and bank reserves rose +$12.5B to $2,929.3B (first weekly gain in a month), and the ECB balance sheet edged up +EUR2.3B though its monetary-policy securities fell -EUR2.5B (QT intact). US M2 at $23.22T (+5.4% YoY), euro-area M3 +3.4% and China M2 +7.7% keep the money-momentum score at +50, so GMLCI holds at 19.00 (mild support) as URLI recovers to about -3.5 from -29.50.
GMLCI Score
+19.00
Mild global liquidity support
Global M2 Momentum
+50
Broad money trend
USD-Adjusted M2
+20
FX-adjusted research proxy
Central Bank Liquidity
+0
Fed / ECB / BOJ / PBOC / BOE
Credit Impulse
+0
Quantity, breadth, pricing
Funding / Dollar
+0
HY OAS 2.65%
Risk Transmission
+0
BTC 2.3% wk
Gold (XAU/USD)
$4,433
-0.5% weekly
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
- US M2 5.4% YoY (2026-07); Euro area M3 3.4% YoY (2026-07).
- China M2 CNY 355.51T, 7.7% YoY (2026-07).
- US HY spreads at 2.65% with a 5bp weekly move.
Restrictive
- No new China release this week -- July data (published Aug 14) carried forward: TSF stock 463.27T CNY (+7.4% YoY), July new social financing 1.40T CNY (+271B YoY) driven almost entirely by government bond issuance, new RMB loans contracting -340B (a record monthly decline), and M2 +7.7% YoY (355.51T CNY). Next release around Sep 15.
- Broad USD index moved 0.0% over the weekly window.
- BTC changed 2.3% and gold -0.5% over the week.
Main Warning
- The policy signal turned decisively hawkish: the August US jobs report (+162k vs ~53k expected, ~+55k revisions, unemployment 4.1%) landed with core PCE stuck at 3.3%, and markets now price a ~60% chance of a 25bp Fed hike on September 16, with no 2026 cut priced anywhere. The broad dollar firmed +0.6% against its prior confirmed print and global yields backed up; a Fed tightening into a US Treasury cash rebuild toward ~$1.05T by late October is a two-sided drag on global dollar liquidity.
POSITIVE GMLCI +19.00 — Mild global liquidity support.
GMLCI — Global M2 Liquidity & Credit Index
GMLCI = 0.30 x Global M2 Momentum + 0.20 x USD-Adjusted M2 + 0.15 x Central Bank Liquidity + 0.15 x Credit Impulse + 0.10 x Funding/Dollar Stress + 0.10 x Risk Transmission
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global M2 Momentum | 30% | +50 | +15.00 |
| USD-Adjusted M2 | 20% | +20 | +4.00 |
| Central Bank Liquidity | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Credit Impulse | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Funding / Dollar Stress | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Risk Transmission | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly GMLCI | +19.00 |
| 4-week moving average | +20.25 |
| 13-week moving average | +19.79 |
GMLCI history (release-aware)
| Week | GMLCI | Global M2 | USD-Adj | Credit | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-08-28 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-08-21 | +24.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-08-14 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-08-07 | +27.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
Show 59 earlier entries
| Week | GMLCI | Global M2 | USD-Adj | Credit | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | +18.25 | +50 | +20 | +5 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-24 | +21.25 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-17 | +18.25 | +50 | +20 | +5 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-10 | +23.75 | +50 | +20 | +5 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-03 | +25.25 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-26 | +12.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-19 | +22.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-12 | +8.50 | +50 | +10 | -20 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-06-05 | +14.50 | +50 | +40 | -10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-29 | +22.50 | +60 | +30 | -10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-22 | +11.00 | +50 | +10 | -20 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-15 | +23.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-08 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-05-01 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-24 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-17 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-10 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-03 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-27 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-20 | -7.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-13 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-06 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-27 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-20 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-13 | -0.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY DRAG |
| 2026-01-30 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-23 | -0.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-16 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-09 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-02 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-26 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-19 | -7.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-12 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-05 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-28 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-21 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-14 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-07 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-31 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-24 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-17 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-10 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-03 | +2.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-26 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-19 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-12 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-05 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-29 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-22 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-15 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-08 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-01 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-25 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-18 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-11 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-04 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-06-27 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-06-20 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
Each weekly score uses only releases public by that week ending; history is not rewritten when later data arrives. The gauge ranks only the FRED-derived 20% market tier — Funding/Dollar Stress plus Risk Transmission — versus frozen 2020+ history. The four judgment components are outside this lens; the full GMLCI is not percentile-ranked.
Market-Stress Alert
| Alert | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Market-Stress percentile (20% tier) | NEUTRAL | Market-Stress (20% tier) = +0.00 ranks in the 52nd percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=155). This ranks only Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission; the full GMLCI is not percentile-ranked. |
Global Liquidity Dashboard
Broad money (release-aware)
| Bloc | Level | Growth | Reference Month | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US M2 | $23.22T | 5.4% YoY | 2026-07 | POSITIVE |
| Euro area M3 | — | 3.4% YoY | 2026-07 | POSITIVE |
| China M2 | CNY 355.51T | 7.7% YoY | 2026-07 | POSITIVE |
| Japan M2 | JPY 1297.0T | 2.2% YoY | 2026-07 | POSITIVE |
| UK M4ex | — | 4.3% YoY / -£10.1B flow MoM | 2026-07 | NEUTRAL |
Market transmission (weekly)
| Series | Latest | Weekly Change | As Of | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad USD index | 118.75 | 0.0% | 2026-08-28 | NEUTRAL |
| US HY OAS | 2.65% | 5bp | 2026-09-03 | NEUTRAL |
| S&P 500 | 7,718.60 | 0.1% | 2026-09-04 | POSITIVE |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,506.99 | 0.4% | 2026-09-04 | POSITIVE |
| Bitcoin | $79,659 | 2.3% | 2026-09-04 | POSITIVE |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,432.56 | -0.5% | 2026-09-04 | NEGATIVE |
Monthly releases are carried forward until a new official release is public. Market series use the latest observation available by the report week. Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission scores are FRED-derived from the market inputs shown above. Gold is a tracked confirmation layer, not an independently scored GMLCI component.
Central Bank Liquidity
| Central Bank | Latest Input | Read | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | US URLI memo (companion report) | NEUTRAL | See the US memo for reserves, TGA, RRP, and net-liquidity plumbing. |
| ECB | EUR 5,915.3B / +2.3B wk | POSITIVE | Policy-purpose securities changed -2.5B (statement 2026-08-28). |
| BOJ | M2 2.2% YoY | POSITIVE | Money-stock reference month: 2026-07. |
| PBOC | M2 7.7% YoY | NEUTRAL | No new China release this week -- July data (published Aug 14) carried forward: TSF stock 463.27T CNY (+7.4% YoY), July new social financing 1.40T CNY (+271B YoY) driven almost entirely by government bond issuance, new RMB loans contracting -340B (a record monthly decline), and M2 +7.7% YoY (355.51T CNY). Next release around Sep 15. |
| BOE | M4ex 4.3% YoY | NEUTRAL | Reference month: 2026-07. |
Global Credit Map
| Credit Layer | Latest | Read | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| US bank credit (H.8) | $19,830.2B / +2.0B wk | POSITIVE | Released 2026-09-04; observation covers 2026-08-26. |
| C&I loans | $2,956.9B / +11.2B | POSITIVE | Business-credit channel. |
| Real-estate loans | $5,830.9B / -0.7B | NEUTRAL | Credit-breadth channel. |
| Consumer loans | $1,920.0B / -0.6B | NEUTRAL | Household channel. |
| China TSF / RMB loans | Release-aware read | NEUTRAL | No new China release this week -- July data (published Aug 14) carried forward: TSF stock 463.27T CNY (+7.4% YoY), July new social financing 1.40T CNY (+271B YoY) driven almost entirely by government bond issuance, new RMB loans contracting -340B (a record monthly decline), and M2 +7.7% YoY (355.51T CNY). Next release around Sep 15. |
| BIS cross-border / FX credit | Quarterly context layer | NEUTRAL | BIS total credit and Global Liquidity Indicators; not a weekly datapoint. |
| Credit pricing | HY OAS 2.65% (5bp) | NEUTRAL | Market-pricing confirmation layer. |
NEUTRAL Credit is scored as a layered transmission check, not a single headline datapoint.
Next Week Watchlist
Scheduled / probable focus
- Watch the US August CPI (Sep 11), the decisive input for the Sep 15-16 FOMC and the dot plot; the September refunding auctions (3Y Sep 8 $58B, 10Y Sep 9 $39B, 30Y Sep 10 $22B, all settling Sep 15) for long-end demand; and China's August money and credit data due around Sep 15.
- Monitor broad USD, HY spreads, and gold for confirmation or invalidation.
- Compare the companion URLI memo: global money can stay supportive while US plumbing drains risk liquidity.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | Setup | Market Impact | Confirms / Invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | USD-adjusted M2 strengthens; China credit broadens; HY spreads stay tight. | Supports equities, EM, BTC, high beta. | Confirms: GMLCI > +40. Invalidates: USD spike or spread widening. |
| BASE | Broad money grows but credit transmission stays mixed. | Selective risk support. | Confirms: GMLCI +10 to +39. Invalidates: China credit weakens further. |
| BEAR | USD-adjusted M2 contracts; credit and funding stress worsen. | Risk-off, high-beta pressure. | Confirms: GMLCI < -40. Invalidates: USD weakens and credit broadens. |
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| US M2 | Federal Reserve H.6 / FRED M2SL | Official |
| Euro M3 / loans | ECB monetary developments | Official |
| ECB balance sheet | ECB weekly financial statement | Official |
| China M2 / TSF | PBOC releases | Official |
| Japan M2 | BOJ money stock | Official |
| UK M4ex | BOE money and credit | Official |
| US bank credit | Federal Reserve H.8 | Official |
| USD / HY / equities / BTC | FRED DTWEXBGS, BAMLH0A0HYM2, SP500, NASDAQCOM, CBBTCUSD | Market |
| Gold spot | Public XAU/USD spot snapshots | Market (secondary) |
| Cross-border credit | BIS Global Liquidity Indicators | Official (quarterly) |
Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission are FRED-derived at week creation. Global M2 Momentum, USD-Adjusted M2, Central Bank Liquidity, and Credit Impulse remain documented research/judgment components until complete keyless feeds are available.