The plumbing flipped to draining this week -- the July 15 tax date and ~$119B in coupon settlements rebuilt the TGA +$46.7B, pulling net liquidity down ~$45B and bank reserves down $36.9B, ending a three-week bullish run.
LATEST WEEKLY RUN — REPORT DATE 2026-07-18
URLI Score
-38.50
Mild liquidity drain
Net Liquidity
-$44.9B
Meaningful drain
Bank Reserves
-$36.9B
Reserve drain
TGA Change
+$46.7B
Cash drain
RRP Change
+$5.6B
Cash parked
Fed Regime
Hold
3.50%-3.75%
Treasury Outlook
TGA rebuild
Liquidity risk
Market Bias
RISK OFF
Liquidity drag
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
Funding markets stayed exceptionally calm through the tax-date drain: SOFR-IORB averaged -4.2bps for the week and bank reserves, though down -$36.9B, remain ample at $3.10T with no repo-market stress.
The Fed's balance sheet still grew +$7.4B (Treasury holdings +$7.2B via reinvestment), and the discount window fell to a negligible $4.8B -- the runoff backdrop stayed orderly.
Global money growth held up: euro-area M3 accelerated to +3.2% YoY in May (from +2.7%) and US M2 held +5.6% YoY; HY credit spreads barely moved (+1bp to 2.71%), still historically tight despite the equity pullback.
The calendar-mechanical model projects next week's net liquidity swinging back positive (~+$183B) as ~$465B of maturities outweigh ~$279B of settlements, driving a projected URLI of +46.5.
Restrictive
Net liquidity drained an estimated -$44.9B as the TGA rebuilt +$46.7B toward its ~$1T late-July target after the July 15 tax date and ~$119B of coupon settlements; bank reserves fell -$36.9B to $3.10T and the RRP rose +$5.6B.
Treasury Outlook was cut to -50 (TGA rebuild now underway) from -30: the rebuild has begun to show up in the cash balance itself and is backed by announced bill-auction-size increases running into the September 15 tax date.
The Fed remains hold-with-hike-risk: Chair Warsh's July 14 testimony stressed 'no tolerance' for elevated inflation and declined to rule out further tightening, with roughly half the FOMC penciling a hike by year-end ahead of the July 28-29 meeting.
Risk assets pulled back: the S&P 500 fell -1.6% to 7,458, the Nasdaq -2.9% to 25,520, and BTC -0.2% to ~$63.9K; gold dropped -2.5% to ~$4,017.
China's June data softened: M2 decelerated to +8.0% YoY (from +8.6%) and M1 to +4.0%, while H1 social financing ran 2.02T CNY below last year -- a soft credit impulse from the second-largest economy.
Main Warning
The tax-date TGA rebuild has flipped the plumbing from a three-week tailwind to a drain, and Treasury's bill-led cash rebuild toward ~$1T continues into the July 28-29 FOMC. Watch next week's 2Y/5Y/7Y note auctions (settling July 31), the July 22 19-year bond and July 23 10-year TIPS, whether the ~$186B calendar-model net-liquidity rebound materializes, and whether bank reserves hold above ~$3T as the rebuild proceeds.
NEGATIVE URLI -38.50 — Mild liquidity drain.
WEEKLY LIQUIDITY MAP
Liquidity Waterline
Every node is a water tank: the solid fill is this week's level, the dashed line is last week, and the faint line is the 3-month average. Funding sources feed net liquidity, which flows through the risk gate to crypto markets. Fill colour marks liquidity effect, not raw level.
Funding Sources
TGA+$46.7BDRAIN
Fed B/S+$7.4BADD
Reserves-$36.9BWATCH
RRP+$5.6BNEUTRAL
Net Liquidity
US Net Cash-44.9BDRAIN
Risk Gate
Risk AssetsURLI -38.5DRAIN
Crypto Markets
Crypto Beta$2.29TADD
Meme Beta$25BDRAIN
AddDrainWatchNeutralLast week3-month avg
Liquidity tanks update weekly (Fed H.4.1 / FRED · as of Jul 17, 2026). Crypto & meme market cap and read use the weekly report snapshot (CoinGecko · as of Jul 19, 2026). Homepage and latest weekly memo use the same Waterline snapshot. AI-readable: JSON · Markdown.
What Changed This Week
Item
Previous
Latest
Change
Impact
Fed total assets
$6,735.6B
$6,743.0B
+$7.4B (+0.1%)
POSITIVE
Bank reserves
$3,137.4B
$3,100.4B
-$36.9B (-1.2%)
NEGATIVE
TGA
$749.2B
$796.0B
+$46.7B (+6.2%)
NEGATIVE
RRP
$348.5B
$354.1B
+$5.6B (+1.6%)
NEGATIVE
Fed rate path
—
hold with hike risk
3.50%-3.75%
NEGATIVE
Dollar / yields
—
yields ~flat (10Y +1bp); dollar soft but on a stale H.10 print
Broad USD 120.50 (FRED/H.10 DTWEXBGS, 2026-07-10 -- latest available; the H.10 broad dollar index's multi-day publication lag means no confirmed print past 2026-07-10 as of this report date, so the week-over-week comparison used for the score reads ~flat)
NEUTRAL
Previous week: 2026-07-10 (H.4.1 weekly levels).
Fed Balance Sheet Detail
Indicator
Latest
Weekly Change
Read
Fed total assets
$6,743.0B
+$7.4B (+0.1%)
POSITIVE
Securities held outright
$6,460.6B
+$7.1B (+0.1%)
POSITIVE
Treasury securities
$4,509.9B
+$7.2B (+0.2%)
POSITIVE
Bank reserves
$3,100.4B
-$36.9B (-1.2%)
NEGATIVE
Discount window
$4.8B
-$1.0B (-17.3%)
POSITIVE
H.4.1 Wednesday levels in millions of dollars for July 15, 2026 (release dated July 16, 2026). WALCL (total assets), WRBWFRBL (bank reserves), WDTGAL (TGA), WLRRAL (RRP), Reserve Bank credit, securities held outright, Treasury securities, MBS, primary credit/discount window (Loans), and Net portfolio holdings of MS Facilities 2020 LLC were cross-checked against the official H.4.1 Table 1/Table 5 Wednesday-level columns and FRED. Reserve Bank credit was $6,696,163M, +$10,624M versus the prior Wednesday; securities held outright +$7,131M (Treasuries +$7,192M, MBS -$61M); Loans (discount window) fell -$1,009M to $4,813M; MS Facilities 2020 LLC was $628M, unchanged. Bank reserves fell -$36,929M and the TGA rose +$46,732M as the July 15 tax date and coupon settlements pulled cash out of the banking system.
TGA up pulls cash into Treasury; TGA down injects it.
RRP
+$5.6B
NEGATIVE
RRP up parks cash at the Fed; RRP down releases it.
Net liquidity
-$44.9B
MEANINGFUL DRAIN
Sum of the three flows above.
URLI — US Risk Liquidity Index
URLI = 0.35 x Net Liquidity + 0.20 x Bank Reserves + 0.15 x Fed Rate Path + 0.10 x Treasury Outlook + 0.10 x Funding Stress + 0.10 x Dollar/Yield Pressure
Component
Weight
Score
Contribution
Net Liquidity
35%
-40
-14.00
Bank Reserves
20%
-70
-14.00
Fed Rate Path
15%
-50
-7.50
Treasury Outlook
10%
-50
-5.00
Funding Stress
10%
+20
+2.00
Dollar / Yield Pressure
10%
+0
+0.00
Metric
Value
Weekly URLI
-38.50
4-week moving average
+13.94
13-week moving average
-2.38· 3 of 13 reconstructed (4-week MA is fully live)
Observed URLI history covers completed weekly runs. Historical percentile ranking uses URLI-Core: the four data-derived components (Net Liquidity, Bank Reserves, Funding Stress, Dollar/Yield Pressure), representing 75% of URLI weight, ranked against frozen weekly FRED history since 2020 and shown in the distribution gauge above. The two policy-judgment components and 13-week live average are outside this percentile lens.
Forward View
Projected URLI — 2026-07-24 estimate
Item
Estimate
Bias
Projected URLI point
+44.50
BULLISH LIQUIDITY BACKDROP
Backtested URLI range
+29.75 to +44.50
RANGE
Projected net liquidity
$69.9B to $296.2B
NEUTRAL
Range note
Backtested URLI range +29.75 to +44.50.
NEUTRAL
Confidence
Model backtest cleared: RMSE $113.2B vs naive $142.9B; hit rate 58.0%. Manual review required for calendar-risk flags.
WATCH
Backtest gate
RMSE improvement 20.81%
MODEL
Component
Projected Change
Method
Fed balance sheet
+1.7B
Trailing 4-week mean
TGA
-186.0B
Treasury settlements minus maturities
RRP
+4.6B
Trailing 4-week mean
Net liquidity
+183.0B
Fed BS - TGA - RRP
Projection track record
Metric
Value
Meaning
Scored weeks (N)
8
Realized forward projections
Directional hit rate
7/8
Projected regime sign matched realized
Range containment
4/8
Realized URLI inside the displayed ±band
Avg absolute error
22.5 pts
Mean |projected − realized|
Point bias
-6.0 pts
Mean projected − realized (− = bearish skew)
Model track record: last 8 completed projections hit 4/8; mean absolute URLI error 22.53.
Assumptions
TGA projected from Treasury settlements ($279.0B) minus maturities ($465.0B) for the Thursday-Wednesday week.
RRP change carries forward the trailing 4-week mean: +4.6B.
Projected bank reserves use net liquidity as a reserve-identity approximation; actual reserves can differ.
Fed rate path, Treasury outlook, funding stress, and dollar/yield scores are held at the latest actual week.
Scheduled FOMC risk may fall near this projection window; verify the official Fed calendar manually.
Projection is a model-derived scenario with a measured historical error band, not an observed URLI value. It is replaced by actual H.4.1 / TGA / RRP data in the next weekly run.
Next-week liquidity calendar
Date
Event
Expected Size
Liquidity Effect
Bias
2026-07-20
13-week ($92B) and 26-week ($79B) Treasury bill auctions
$171B combined; settlement July 23
Bill settlement drains cash to Treasury; net effect depends on par of maturing bills vs. new issuance
NEGATIVE
2026-07-21
6-week Treasury bill auction
$95B; settlement July 23
Bill settlement drains cash to Treasury as part of the TGA rebuild toward the ~$1T late-July target
NEGATIVE
2026-07-22
19-Year Bond auction (reopening)
$13B; settlement July 24
Coupon settlement drains cash to Treasury on July 24
NEGATIVE
2026-07-23
10-Year TIPS auction
$21B; settlement July 31
Coupon settlement drains cash to Treasury on July 31 (outside the projection week)
NEUTRAL
2026-07-27
2-Year and 5-Year Note auctions (plus 13-/26-week bills)
Regular monthly coupon supply; settlement July 31
Large end-of-month coupon settlement drains cash to Treasury on July 31; reinforces the TGA rebuild
N/A (rate decision); 7-Year Note settlement July 31
Rate decision -- the June statement held rates at 3.50%-3.75% while Chair Warsh described inflation as elevated with 'no tolerance' for persistence; the SEP shows roughly half the Committee penciling a hike by year-end. No market-implied probability is asserted without a stored source snapshot.
WATCH
Week of 2026-07-18
Projected net-liquidity swing: settlements ($279B) vs. maturities ($465B)
Net TGA drawdown of ~$186B projected by the calendar-mechanical model for the week ending July 24
If realized, injects reserves back into the banking system -- a bullish URLI signal after this week's tax-date drain; drives the projected URLI to +46.5
POSITIVE
Alerts & Warnings
Alert
Status
Notes
Major injection / drain
NEUTRAL
Net liquidity -44.9B; no breach of the +/-$100B threshold.
Reserve shock
NEGATIVE
Bank reserves -36.9B; inside the +/-$75B shock band.
TGA rebuild risk
WATCH
The TGA rose +$46.7B on the week to $796.0B as of July 15, its first weekly build after three consecutive drawdowns, as the July 15 tax date and roughly $119B in Note/Bond coupon settlements pulled cash out of the banking system into Treasury's account. This confirms the rebuild path Treasury signaled in the May refunding statement (SB0489): cash is now being rebuilt toward the ~$1T (+/- $50B) late-July target, still roughly $200B away, and Treasury has announced marginal bill-auction-size increases across the curve to fund it into the September 15 tax date. The score moves to TGA rebuild underway (-50) from bill/coupon issuance pressure (-30) to reflect that the rebuild has now begun to show up in the TGA level itself, not just in guidance.
RRP shock
NEUTRAL
RRP +5.6B; below the $50B shock threshold.
Fed rate path
NEGATIVE
No FOMC meeting occurred this week. On July 14, Chair Kevin Warsh's semiannual monetary-policy testimony to the House stressed that the Committee has 'no tolerance' for persistently elevated inflation and characterized June's inflation improvement as not 'mission accomplished'; he declined to signal the July decision. June CPI showed headline inflation easing (core down to +2.6% YoY from +2.9%), but the June SEP had roughly half of the 19 policymakers penciling at least one more hike by year-end. The stance remains a restrictive hold with hike risk; no market-implied July/September probability is asserted because a sourced market-probability snapshot is not stored. Next FOMC is July 28-29, 2026.
Funding stress
POSITIVE
FRED-derived: -4.20 bps avg SOFR-IORB (2026-07-10 to 2026-07-16, 5 business days). SOFR (3.62% on July 16) held modestly below IORB (3.65%) even as the July 15 tax date and ~$119B coupon settlements drained cash to the TGA. Bank reserves fell -$36.9B to $3.10T but remain ample; no repo-market stress signals despite the drain.
Historical significance
NEGATIVE
URLI-Core (4 data components, 75% weight) = -26.00 ranks in the 28th percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=337).
Market Transmission
Asset
Bias
Reason
SPX / QQQ
HEADWIND
Mild liquidity drain; index-level liquidity does not support multiple expansion.
Small caps / breadth
NEGATIVE
Rate-sensitive; needs reserve support and lower yields.
BTC / ETH
HEADWIND
Crypto tracks net liquidity; this week's flow was -$44.9B.
High-beta alts
WATCH
Need both a positive URLI trend and BTC leadership to outperform.
NEGATIVE Liquidity drag.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
Scenario
Liquidity Setup
Market Impact
Confirms / Invalidates
BULL
TGA drawdown resumes; SOMA support continues; yields cool.
Risk assets bid.
Confirms: net liquidity > +$50B. Invalidates: TGA rebuild accelerates.