GLOBAL M2 LIQUIDITY & CREDIT — WEEKLY MEMO
Week Ending 2026-09-11
The largest weekly liquidity injection of 2026 -- but a purely mechanical one. US net liquidity rose +$112.2B as the TGA drained -$100.7B to $843.7B with no coupon settlement in the data week, lifting bank reserves +$107.2B to $3,036.5B and back above $3 trillion for the first time since June. Funding eased with it: SOFR-IORB averaged -0.80bp and closed the window 3bp BELOW the administered floor. The money tier was little changed -- US M2 +5.4% YoY, Euro M3 +3.4%, China M2 +7.7%, UK M4ex +4.3% -- with Japan M2 the only update, easing to +2.0% YoY (Y1,296.4T, BOJ August preliminary released Sep 9). ECB total assets fell -EUR3.164B to EUR5,912.178B on -EUR2.6B of policy-portfolio redemptions, so central-bank liquidity stays passively contractionary outside the US.
GMLCI Score
+19.00
Mild global liquidity support
Global M2 Momentum
+50
Broad money trend
USD-Adjusted M2
+20
FX-adjusted research proxy
Central Bank Liquidity
+0
Fed / ECB / BOJ / PBOC / BOE
Credit Impulse
+0
Quantity, breadth, pricing
Funding / Dollar
+0
HY OAS 2.70%
Risk Transmission
+0
BTC -3.0% wk
Gold (XAU/USD)
$4,386
-0.7% weekly
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
- US M2 5.4% YoY (2026-07); Euro area M3 3.4% YoY (2026-07).
- China M2 CNY 355.51T, 7.7% YoY (2026-07).
- US HY spreads at 2.70% with a 2bp weekly move.
Restrictive
- No new China release this week -- July data (published Aug 14) carried forward: TSF stock 463.27T CNY (+7.4% YoY), July new RMB loans -340B (largest monthly contraction on record), M2 +7.7% YoY (355.51T CNY). August money and credit data are due around Sep 15 and will be the next update to this tier.
- Broad USD index moved 0.0% over the weekly window.
- BTC changed -3.0% and gold -0.7% over the week.
Main Warning
- Every dollar of the US injection is scheduled to reverse on September 15, when roughly $119B of 3/10/30-year refunding settles on the same day quarterly corporate estimated taxes are collected -- the calendar-mechanical model projects -$90.7B of net liquidity for the week ending Sep 18 and flags it for manual review. The policy side hardened at the same time: August CPI core came in +0.3% m/m against +0.2% expected (headline +0.4% m/m, 3.4% YoY) and CME FedWatch odds of a 25bp hike on Sep 16 jumped to roughly 86% from about 60%. Yields repriced hard -- 2Y +19bp to 4.56%, 10Y +17bp to 4.95%, 30Y +13bp to 5.37% -- and risk assets did not follow the liquidity: BTC -3.0%, gold -0.7%, S&P 500 -0.8% on the week.
POSITIVE GMLCI +19.00 — Mild global liquidity support.
GMLCI — Global M2 Liquidity & Credit Index
GMLCI = 0.30 x Global M2 Momentum + 0.20 x USD-Adjusted M2 + 0.15 x Central Bank Liquidity + 0.15 x Credit Impulse + 0.10 x Funding/Dollar Stress + 0.10 x Risk Transmission
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global M2 Momentum | 30% | +50 | +15.00 |
| USD-Adjusted M2 | 20% | +20 | +4.00 |
| Central Bank Liquidity | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Credit Impulse | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Funding / Dollar Stress | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Risk Transmission | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly GMLCI | +19.00 |
| 4-week moving average | +20.25 |
| 13-week moving average | +20.60 |
GMLCI history (release-aware)
| Week | GMLCI | Global M2 | USD-Adj | Credit | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-09-04 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-08-28 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-08-21 | +24.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-08-14 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
Show 60 earlier entries
| Week | GMLCI | Global M2 | USD-Adj | Credit | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | +27.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-31 | +18.25 | +50 | +20 | +5 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-24 | +21.25 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-17 | +18.25 | +50 | +20 | +5 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-10 | +23.75 | +50 | +20 | +5 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-03 | +25.25 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-26 | +12.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-19 | +22.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-12 | +8.50 | +50 | +10 | -20 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-06-05 | +14.50 | +50 | +40 | -10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-29 | +22.50 | +60 | +30 | -10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-22 | +11.00 | +50 | +10 | -20 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-15 | +23.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-08 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-05-01 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-24 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-17 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-10 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-03 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-27 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-20 | -7.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-13 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-06 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-27 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-20 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-13 | -0.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY DRAG |
| 2026-01-30 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-23 | -0.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-16 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-09 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-02 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-26 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-19 | -7.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-12 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-05 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-28 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-21 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-14 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-07 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-31 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-24 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-17 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-10 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-03 | +2.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-26 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-19 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-12 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-05 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-29 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-22 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-15 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-08 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-01 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-25 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-18 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-11 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-04 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-06-27 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-06-20 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
Each weekly score uses only releases public by that week ending; history is not rewritten when later data arrives. The gauge ranks only the FRED-derived 20% market tier — Funding/Dollar Stress plus Risk Transmission — versus frozen 2020+ history. The four judgment components are outside this lens; the full GMLCI is not percentile-ranked.
Market-Stress Alert
| Alert | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Market-Stress percentile (20% tier) | NEUTRAL | Market-Stress (20% tier) = +0.00 ranks in the 52nd percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=155). This ranks only Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission; the full GMLCI is not percentile-ranked. |
Global Liquidity Dashboard
Broad money (release-aware)
| Bloc | Level | Growth | Reference Month | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US M2 | $23.22T | 5.4% YoY | 2026-07 | POSITIVE |
| Euro area M3 | — | 3.4% YoY | 2026-07 | POSITIVE |
| China M2 | CNY 355.51T | 7.7% YoY | 2026-07 | POSITIVE |
| Japan M2 | JPY 1296.4T | 2.0% YoY | 2026-08 | POSITIVE |
| UK M4ex | — | 4.3% YoY / -£10.1B flow MoM | 2026-07 | NEUTRAL |
Market transmission (weekly)
| Series | Latest | Weekly Change | As Of | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad USD index | 118.07 | 0.0% | 2026-09-04 | NEUTRAL |
| US HY OAS | 2.70% | 2bp | 2026-09-10 | NEUTRAL |
| S&P 500 | 7,656.98 | -0.8% | 2026-09-11 | NEGATIVE |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,333.04 | -0.7% | 2026-09-11 | NEGATIVE |
| Bitcoin | $77,276 | -3.0% | 2026-09-11 | NEGATIVE |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $4,386.25 | -0.7% | 2026-09-11 | NEGATIVE |
Monthly releases are carried forward until a new official release is public. Market series use the latest observation available by the report week. Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission scores are FRED-derived from the market inputs shown above. Gold is a tracked confirmation layer, not an independently scored GMLCI component.
Central Bank Liquidity
| Central Bank | Latest Input | Read | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | US URLI memo (companion report) | NEUTRAL | See the US memo for reserves, TGA, RRP, and net-liquidity plumbing. |
| ECB | EUR 5,912.2B / -3.2B wk | NEGATIVE | Policy-purpose securities changed -2.6B (statement 2026-09-04). |
| BOJ | M2 2.0% YoY | POSITIVE | Money-stock reference month: 2026-08. |
| PBOC | M2 7.7% YoY | NEUTRAL | No new China release this week -- July data (published Aug 14) carried forward: TSF stock 463.27T CNY (+7.4% YoY), July new RMB loans -340B (largest monthly contraction on record), M2 +7.7% YoY (355.51T CNY). August money and credit data are due around Sep 15 and will be the next update to this tier. |
| BOE | M4ex 4.3% YoY | NEUTRAL | Reference month: 2026-07. |
Global Credit Map
| Credit Layer | Latest | Read | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| US bank credit (H.8) | $19,835.3B / +4.6B wk | POSITIVE | Released 2026-09-11; observation covers 2026-09-02. |
| C&I loans | $2,965.1B / +9.1B | POSITIVE | Business-credit channel. |
| Real-estate loans | $5,829.7B / -2.9B | NEUTRAL | Credit-breadth channel. |
| Consumer loans | $1,914.3B / -5.5B | NEUTRAL | Household channel. |
| China TSF / RMB loans | Release-aware read | NEUTRAL | No new China release this week -- July data (published Aug 14) carried forward: TSF stock 463.27T CNY (+7.4% YoY), July new RMB loans -340B (largest monthly contraction on record), M2 +7.7% YoY (355.51T CNY). August money and credit data are due around Sep 15 and will be the next update to this tier. |
| BIS cross-border / FX credit | Quarterly context layer | NEUTRAL | BIS total credit and Global Liquidity Indicators; not a weekly datapoint. |
| Credit pricing | HY OAS 2.70% (2bp) | NEUTRAL | Market-pricing confirmation layer. |
NEUTRAL Credit is scored as a layered transmission check, not a single headline datapoint.
Next Week Watchlist
Scheduled / probable focus
- The September 16 FOMC decision with the SEP and dot plot is the week: a 25bp hike is roughly 86% priced, and it would move the URLI rate-path score from -50 to -80. Alongside it, watch the September 15 double drain (~$119B refunding settlement plus the corporate tax date) rebuilding the TGA from $843.7B toward the QRA ~$950B end-September target, the $13B 20-year reopening (auctioned Sep 15, settles Sep 18), and whether SOFR stays below IORB as those reserves are handed back. China August money and credit data are due around Sep 15.
- Monitor broad USD, HY spreads, and gold for confirmation or invalidation.
- Compare the companion URLI memo: global money can stay supportive while US plumbing drains risk liquidity.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | Setup | Market Impact | Confirms / Invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | USD-adjusted M2 strengthens; China credit broadens; HY spreads stay tight. | Supports equities, EM, BTC, high beta. | Confirms: GMLCI > +40. Invalidates: USD spike or spread widening. |
| BASE | Broad money grows but credit transmission stays mixed. | Selective risk support. | Confirms: GMLCI +10 to +39. Invalidates: China credit weakens further. |
| BEAR | USD-adjusted M2 contracts; credit and funding stress worsen. | Risk-off, high-beta pressure. | Confirms: GMLCI < -40. Invalidates: USD weakens and credit broadens. |
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| US M2 | Federal Reserve H.6 / FRED M2SL | Official |
| Euro M3 / loans | ECB monetary developments | Official |
| ECB balance sheet | ECB weekly financial statement | Official |
| China M2 / TSF | PBOC releases | Official |
| Japan M2 | BOJ money stock | Official |
| UK M4ex | BOE money and credit | Official |
| US bank credit | Federal Reserve H.8 | Official |
| USD / HY / equities / BTC | FRED DTWEXBGS, BAMLH0A0HYM2, SP500, NASDAQCOM, CBBTCUSD | Market |
| Gold spot | Public XAU/USD spot snapshots | Market (secondary) |
| Cross-border credit | BIS Global Liquidity Indicators | Official (quarterly) |
Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission are FRED-derived at week creation. Global M2 Momentum, USD-Adjusted M2, Central Bank Liquidity, and Credit Impulse remain documented research/judgment components until complete keyless feeds are available.