US FED / TREASURY LIQUIDITY — WEEKLY MEMO
Week Ending 2026-08-07
The drain fully reversed: the TGA fell -$41.1B and the RRP -$17.7B, adding ~$69.2B of net liquidity and lifting reserves +$58.2B back above $3T -- then a negative payroll print took the Fed's hike risk off the table.
URLI Score
+41.25
Bullish liquidity backdrop
Net Liquidity
+$69.2B
Meaningful injection
Bank Reserves
+$58.2B
Reserve build
TGA Change
-$41.1B
Cash injection
RRP Change
-$17.7B
Cash released
Fed Regime
Neutral --
3.50%-3.75%
Treasury Outlook
Neutral --
Supportive
Market Bias
RISK ON
Supportive
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
- Net liquidity rose an estimated +$69.2B, the largest weekly injection of this cycle and a clean reversal of last week's -$128.6B drain: TGA -$41.1B, RRP -$17.7B and a +$10.4B Fed balance-sheet gain all pushed the same way.
- Bank reserves recovered +$58.2B to $3,002.7B, back above the $3T threshold they had breached for the first time last week.
- The August 5 Quarterly Refunding removed the main forward risk: the end-September cash target is $950B against $929.3B today, and coupon and FRN auction sizes are to be maintained for at least several quarters, so the July drain does not restart.
- The July payroll miss (-23,000 versus ~+83,000 expected, average hourly earnings +3.2% YoY) defuses the three-dissent hike case and lifts the Fed Rate Path score from -50 to 0.
- Risk assets rallied hard: the S&P 500 +3.6% to 7,757.64, the Nasdaq +5.2% to 26,690.62 and Bitcoin +3.1% to ~$64.9K, with HY spreads tightening to 2.71%.
- The Fed's securities portfolio grew +$10.3B with MBS unchanged -- the first Wednesday column this cycle without MBS runoff.
Restrictive
- The labour market itself is the bearish item: payrolls contracted -23,000, government shed -53,000, and the unemployment rate only fell to 4.1% because the labour force shrank. Liquidity is improving into evidence of a weakening economy.
- SOFR-IORB turned positive on average (+0.20bp) for the first time this cycle, printing above the administered floor on two of five sessions -- trivial in size, but the direction last week's file said to watch.
- Reserve Bank credit fell -$3.0B even as total assets rose, and the discount window gave back -$1.2B to $5.3B.
- The TGA still has roughly $21B of refill to do to reach the September target, so the plumbing tailwind from Treasury cash is largely exhausted at these levels.
- Gold surged +7.7% on the week to $4,335.55 (LBMA PM), its strongest week since January -- a rally driven by rate-cut repricing and haven demand rather than by anything reassuring about growth.
Main Warning
- The week's signal is a hand-off: the mechanical liquidity tailwind is nearly spent just as the macro justification for lower rates arrives. Net liquidity added ~$69B and reserves are back over $3T, but with the TGA only ~$21B from its September target the Treasury channel is close to neutral from here, and the next move in reserves depends on bill supply rather than a step-function TGA swing. Watch the July CPI on August 12 -- after a negative payroll print it is the swing input for September -- the 3s/10s/30s refunding auctions on August 11-13 for long-end demand, and whether SOFR-IORB holds above zero now that it has crossed. The Fed Rate Path score moved to neutral on data, not on any Fed signal; the Committee does not meet again until September and has not endorsed a cut.
POSITIVE URLI +41.25 — Bullish liquidity backdrop.
WEEKLY LIQUIDITY MAP
Liquidity Waterline
Every node is a water tank: the solid fill is this week's level, the dashed line is last week, and the faint line is the 3-month average. Funding sources feed net liquidity, which flows through the risk gate to crypto markets. Fill colour marks liquidity effect, not raw level.
Funding Sources
TGA-$41.1BADD
Fed B/S+$10.4BADD
Reserves+$58.2BADD
RRP-$17.7BADD
Net Liquidity
US Net Cash+69.2BADD
Risk Gate
Risk AssetsURLI +41.2ADD
Crypto Markets
Crypto Beta$2.29TNEUTRAL
Meme Beta$25BADD
AddDrainWatchNeutralLast week3-month avg
Liquidity tanks update weekly (Fed H.4.1 / FRED · as of Aug 7, 2026). Crypto & meme market cap and read use the weekly report snapshot (CoinGecko · as of Aug 9, 2026). Homepage and latest weekly memo use the same Waterline snapshot. AI-readable: JSON · Markdown.
What Changed This Week
| Item | Previous | Latest | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,738.2B | $6,748.6B | +$10.4B (+0.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Bank reserves | $2,944.5B | $3,002.7B | +$58.2B (+2.0%) | POSITIVE |
| TGA | $970.4B | $929.3B | -$41.1B (-4.2%) | POSITIVE |
| RRP | $337.1B | $319.4B | -$17.7B (-5.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Fed rate path | — | neutral -- hike risk defused by a negative payroll print, but no cut path signalled | 3.50%-3.75% | POSITIVE |
| Dollar / yields | — | yields fell across the curve into the payroll miss (10Y -6bp); dollar reading still lagged by H.10 publication | Broad USD 119.70 (FRED/H.10 DTWEXBGS, 2026-07-31 -- latest available; the H.10 index's multi-day publication lag means no confirmed print past 2026-07-31 as of this report date) | NEUTRAL |
Previous week: 2026-07-31 (H.4.1 weekly levels).
Fed Balance Sheet Detail
| Indicator | Latest | Weekly Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,748.6B | +$10.4B (+0.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Securities held outright | $6,463.2B | +$10.3B (+0.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Treasury securities | $4,530.0B | +$10.3B (+0.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Bank reserves | $3,002.7B | +$58.2B (+2.0%) | POSITIVE |
| Discount window | $5.3B | -$1.2B (-19.0%) | POSITIVE |
H.4.1 Wednesday levels in millions of dollars for August 5, 2026 (release dated August 6, 2026). WALCL (total assets), WRBWFRBL (bank reserves), WDTGAL (TGA) and WLRRAL (RRP) verified against FRED for 2026-08-05. Reserve Bank credit ($6,696,248M, -$2,955M) and Net portfolio holdings of MS Facilities 2020 LLC ($628M, unchanged) were read from the official H.4.1 Table 1 Wednesday-level column and agree with FRED WRESCRT; securities held outright (WSHOSHO), Treasury securities (WSHOTSL), MBS (WSHOMCB) and Loans (WLCFLL) were taken from FRED at the same Wednesday date, with each weekly change computed Wednesday-over-Wednesday against 2026-07-29. Securities held outright rose +$10,304M entirely on the Treasury leg (+$10,304M) with MBS unchanged at $1,930,855M -- the first week this cycle without MBS runoff in the Wednesday column. Loans fell -$1,246M to $5,319M, giving back last week's rise. Bank reserves recovered +$58,190M to $3,002,731M, back above $3T, as the TGA drew down -$41,117M to $929,325M and the RRP fell -$17,683M to $319,368M.
Net Liquidity Calculation
Net Liquidity Change = Fed Balance Sheet Change - TGA Change - RRP Change
| Component | Weekly Change | Effect | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | +$10.4B | POSITIVE | Balance-sheet growth adds liquidity. |
| TGA | -$41.1B | POSITIVE | TGA up pulls cash into Treasury; TGA down injects it. |
| RRP | -$17.7B | POSITIVE | RRP up parks cash at the Fed; RRP down releases it. |
| Net liquidity | +$69.2B | MEANINGFUL INJECTION | Sum of the three flows above. |
URLI — US Risk Liquidity Index
URLI = 0.35 x Net Liquidity + 0.20 x Bank Reserves + 0.15 x Fed Rate Path + 0.10 x Treasury Outlook + 0.10 x Funding Stress + 0.10 x Dollar/Yield Pressure
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Liquidity | 35% | +75 | +26.25 |
| Bank Reserves | 20% | +70 | +14.00 |
| Fed Rate Path | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Treasury Outlook | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Funding Stress | 10% | +10 | +1.00 |
| Dollar / Yield Pressure | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly URLI | +41.25 |
| 4-week moving average | -25.81 |
| 13-week moving average | -8.69 |
Observed URLI history
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | +41.25 | +$69.2B | +$58.2B | -$41.1B | -$17.7B | BULLISH LIQUIDITY BACKDROP |
| 2026-07-31 | -64.50 | -$128.6B | -$120.4B | +$135.0B | -$15.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-07-24 | -41.50 | -$33.7B | -$35.6B | +$39.4B | -$1.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-07-17 | -38.50 | -$44.9B | -$36.9B | +$46.7B | +$5.6B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-07-10 | +31.75 | +$59.1B | +$60.4B | -$58.1B | +$10.0B | POSITIVE |
Show 55 earlier entries
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | +36.75 | +$81.5B | +$122.6B | -$94.5B | +$1.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-26 | +25.75 | +$53.0B | +$18.1B | -$54.7B | +$0.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-19 | -66.50 | -$162.7B | -$175.1B | +$155.4B | +$18.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-06-12 | +29.75 | +$67.0B | +$65.8B | -$44.6B | -$8.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-05 | -33.50 | -$20.9B | -$21.4B | +$3.1B | +$24.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-29 | -41.50 | -$28.2B | -$39.7B | +$60.7B | -$41.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-22 | -23.50 | -$5.7B | -$10.7B | -$25.4B | +$16.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-15 | +31.25 | +$70.7B | +$65.9B | -$55.3B | +$3.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-05-08 | +58.50 | +$134.9B | +$132.3B | -$125.3B | -$0.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-05-01 | -2.00 | +$14.0B | +$4.6B | -$19.1B | -$2.4B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-04-24 | -39.25 | -$66.3B | -$65.6B | +$82.7B | -$14.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-04-17 | -51.50 | -$210.5B | -$203.3B | +$227.4B | -$5.0B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-04-10 | +58.50 | +$119.7B | +$119.1B | -$106.5B | +$5.3B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-04-03 | +21.00 | +$46.6B | +$28.4B | -$33.9B | +$5.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-27 | +29.00 | +$36.9B | +$37.3B | -$38.4B | +$2.8B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-20 | -42.25 | -$66.3B | -$74.3B | +$70.0B | +$5.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-03-13 | +38.25 | +$52.7B | +$59.4B | -$41.2B | +$6.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-06 | -5.00 | +$16.8B | +$9.3B | +$8.0B | -$9.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-02-27 | +41.25 | +$50.4B | +$44.5B | -$49.9B | -$0.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-02-20 | +0.50 | +$4.0B | +$1.5B | -$21.7B | +$8.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-02-13 | +12.00 | +$19.9B | +$21.0B | +$2.8B | -$6.2B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-02-06 | +38.25 | +$63.6B | +$54.6B | -$45.0B | -$0.3B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-30 | -36.75 | -$82.3B | -$73.6B | +$81.5B | +$3.8B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-01-23 | -45.25 | -$96.9B | -$105.2B | +$94.1B | +$5.6B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-01-16 | +29.00 | +$25.2B | +$38.8B | -$6.5B | -$10.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-09 | +53.00 | +$156.2B | +$169.6B | -$89.3B | -$133.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-02 | -61.00 | -$152.6B | -$127.1B | +$71.3B | +$140.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-12-26 | +43.75 | +$95.0B | +$46.9B | -$59.9B | -$10.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-12-19 | -30.00 | -$38.7B | -$40.1B | +$55.6B | +$0.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-12-12 | +56.00 | +$107.2B | +$95.6B | -$102.7B | -$1.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-12-05 | -26.00 | -$25.7B | -$19.8B | +$8.8B | +$0.2B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-11-28 | -5.50 | -$6.9B | -$19.5B | -$1.2B | +$5.1B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-11-21 | +26.00 | +$32.2B | +$34.2B | -$42.3B | -$15.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-11-14 | +31.00 | +$37.4B | +$31.4B | +$0.4B | -$30.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-11-07 | +7.00 | +$21.8B | +$24.0B | -$41.2B | +$5.1B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-10-31 | -55.25 | -$94.3B | -$101.7B | +$78.8B | +$13.0B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-24 | -42.25 | -$66.6B | -$58.6B | +$53.1B | +$6.5B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-17 | -24.50 | -$44.3B | -$45.7B | +$57.9B | -$7.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-10 | +38.25 | +$58.0B | +$54.3B | -$25.3B | -$28.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-10-03 | -34.25 | -$58.2B | -$20.1B | +$61.4B | -$24.5B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-26 | -12.00 | +$11.2B | -$20.7B | -$49.2B | +$37.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-19 | -51.50 | -$125.5B | -$130.6B | +$139.6B | -$11.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-12 | -2.50 | -$16.0B | -$17.0B | +$5.6B | +$14.2B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-09-05 | -26.00 | -$43.0B | -$48.9B | +$66.1B | -$24.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-29 | -44.25 | -$78.9B | -$80.8B | +$69.7B | -$5.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-22 | -29.00 | -$32.7B | -$30.7B | +$10.6B | -$3.1B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-15 | +2.00 | -$4.7B | -$2.0B | +$51.2B | -$43.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-08-08 | +35.00 | +$33.2B | +$30.7B | +$44.9B | -$79.8B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-08-01 | -41.25 | -$59.7B | -$58.7B | +$85.9B | -$41.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-07-25 | -1.50 | -$15.3B | -$16.7B | +$21.5B | -$7.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-07-18 | +23.00 | +$31.4B | +$33.0B | +$1.0B | -$35.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-07-11 | +48.25 | +$84.9B | +$85.5B | -$61.2B | -$21.4B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-07-04 | -42.75 | -$87.3B | -$90.8B | +$37.7B | +$47.1B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-06-27 | +24.50 | +$23.6B | +$24.3B | -$49.3B | +$6.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-06-20 | -53.00 | -$104.1B | -$106.7B | +$106.8B | +$1.1B | NEGATIVE |
Observed URLI history covers completed weekly runs. Historical percentile ranking uses URLI-Core: the four data-derived components (Net Liquidity, Bank Reserves, Funding Stress, Dollar/Yield Pressure), representing 75% of URLI weight, ranked against frozen weekly FRED history since 2020 and shown in the distribution gauge above. The two policy-judgment components and 13-week live average are outside this percentile lens.
Forward View
Projected URLI — 2026-08-14 estimate
| Item | Estimate | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| Projected URLI point | -3.50 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| Backtested URLI range | -64.50 to +45.50 | RANGE |
| Projected net liquidity | -$104.9B to $125.9B | NEUTRAL |
| Range note | Backtested URLI range -64.50 to +45.50. | NEUTRAL |
| Confidence | Model backtest cleared: RMSE $115.4B vs naive $142.9B; hit rate 52.7%. | WATCH |
| Backtest gate | RMSE improvement 19.25% | MODEL |
| Component | Projected Change | Method |
|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | +3.2B | Trailing 4-week mean |
| TGA | +0.0B | Coupon net + assumed bill roll |
| RRP | -7.3B | Trailing 4-week mean |
| Net liquidity | +10.5B | Fed BS - TGA - RRP |
Projection track record — current estimator
| Metric | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Scored weeks (N) | 2 | Scored since the 2026-07-21 model change |
| Directional hit rate | 1/2 | Projected regime sign matched realized |
| Range containment | 2/2 | Realized URLI inside the displayed ±band |
| Avg absolute error | 53.9 pts | Mean |projected − realized| |
| Point bias | +3.1 pts | Mean projected − realized (− = bearish skew) |
The projection model changed materially on 2026-07-21 (maturing bills are now assumed to roll rather than counted as Treasury cash outflows). The 10 earlier scored weeks are excluded above because they were produced by the previous estimator.
Model track record: last 12 completed projections hit 6/12; mean absolute URLI error 38.25.
Assumptions
- TGA projection separates coupon cash flow (+0.0B) from bills. Bills are assumed roll (+0.0B); gross settlements $548.0B and maturities $490.0B.
- Fed balance sheet change carries forward the trailing 4-week mean: +3.2B.
- RRP change carries forward the trailing 4-week mean: -7.3B.
- Projected bank reserves use net liquidity as a reserve-identity approximation; actual reserves can differ.
- Fed rate path, Treasury outlook, funding stress, and dollar/yield scores are held at the latest actual week.
- The August 5 refunding guided the end-September cash balance to $950B against $929.3B today, so the residual TGA refill (~$21B) is spread across the quarter rather than concentrated in this window.
Projection is a model-derived scenario with a measured historical error band, not an observed URLI value. It is replaced by actual H.4.1 / TGA / RRP data in the next weekly run.
Next-week liquidity calendar
| Date | Event | Expected Size | Liquidity Effect | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 3-year note auction ($58B) plus 13-week/26-week bill auctions | Refunding leg one; sizes maintained per the August 5 statement | Coupon settlement lands August 17, outside this window; bills assumed to roll | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-08-12 | 10-year note auction ($42B) and July CPI (8:30 a.m. ET) | N/A for CPI; coupon size unchanged | No direct plumbing effect from CPI, but after a negative payroll print it is the swing input for the September FOMC: a soft core print would consolidate the shift away from hike risk | WATCH |
| 2026-08-13 | 30-year bond auction ($25B) | Refunding leg three; size maintained | Long-end supply; settles August 17, outside the window. Weak demand would steepen the curve and pressure the dollar/yield score | WATCH |
| 2026-08-15 | PBOC July money and credit data (M2, TSF) expected | N/A | No US plumbing effect; refreshes the China M2 and credit-impulse inputs to GMLCI, currently carried at June | WATCH |
| Week of 2026-08-10 | Projected net-liquidity swing: gross settlements ($548B) vs maturities ($490B), bills assumed to roll | Net TGA change of ~$0B projected for the week ending August 14 | With no coupon settlement inside the window and the refunding target only ~$21B above the current balance, the mechanical estimate is a small net injection (+$10.5B) driven by Fed balance-sheet and RRP carry-forwards | NEUTRAL |
Alerts & Warnings
| Alert | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Major injection / drain | NEUTRAL | Net liquidity +69.2B; no breach of the +/-$100B threshold. |
| Reserve shock | POSITIVE | Bank reserves +58.2B; inside the +/-$75B shock band. |
| TGA rebuild risk | WATCH | The August 5 Quarterly Refunding Statement resolved the decisive question flagged last week, and it resolved it benignly. Treasury guided to an end-September cash balance of $950B and expects to borrow $739B in privately-held net marketable debt over the July-September quarter, while anticipating that nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes will be MAINTAINED for at least the next several quarters. With the TGA at $929.3B after this week's -$41.1B drawdown, the balance is roughly $21B below the September target -- a mild refill spread over eight weeks rather than the step-function drain that pulled ~$210B out of reserves in July. The score improves from -30 to 0: net bill supply still absorbs some cash and buybacks (up to $38B liquidity-support plus $25B cash-management) run in the background, but the TGA path from here is close to flat and the auction-size risk that would have restarted the drain did not materialise. |
| RRP shock | NEUTRAL | RRP -17.7B; below the $50B shock threshold. |
| Fed rate path | POSITIVE | No FOMC meeting this week; the stance remains the July 28-29 hold at 3.50%-3.75% (IORB 3.65%), which carried three dissents in favour of a 25bp INCREASE (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan). The July Employment Situation released August 7 materially undercuts that hike case: nonfarm payrolls FELL -23,000 against a consensus near +83,000, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% (from 4.2%) only because the labour force shrank, government payrolls dropped -53,000, and average hourly earnings slowed to +3.2% YoY -- the weakest since May 2021. The score moves from -50 (hold with hike risk) to 0 (neutral): the upward pressure inside the Committee is no longer the only live direction, but the Fed itself has signalled no cut path and does not meet again until September, so a positive 'hold with cut path' score would front-run a decision that has not been taken. |
| Funding stress | POSITIVE | FRED-derived: +0.20 bps avg SOFR-IORB (2026-07-31 to 2026-08-06, 5 business days): +1 bp July 31, 0 bp August 3, +1 bp August 4, -1 bp August 5, 0 bp August 6. Last week's file flagged 'the signal to watch is whether the spread goes positive' -- it did, on two of five sessions, and the weekly average is positive for the first time this cycle. The magnitude remains trivial (a fifth of a basis point) and the score is unchanged at +10, but the direction is worth recording: SOFR is now printing marginally THROUGH the administered floor on some days rather than sitting on it. The mitigating fact is that reserves rebounded +$58.2B to $3,002.7B, back above $3T, and the discount window fell -$1.2B to $5.3B, so this is a cushion that compressed while reserves were thin rather than a funding dislocation. |
| Historical significance | POSITIVE | URLI-Core (4 data components, 75% weight) = +41.25 ranks in the 80th percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=337). |
Market Transmission
| Asset | Bias | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| SPX / QQQ | SUPPORTED | Bullish liquidity backdrop; index-level liquidity supports multiple expansion. |
| Small caps / breadth | NEUTRAL | Rate-sensitive; needs reserve support and lower yields. |
| BTC / ETH | SUPPORTED | Crypto tracks net liquidity; this week's flow was +$69.2B. |
| High-beta alts | WATCH | Need both a positive URLI trend and BTC leadership to outperform. |
POSITIVE Supportive.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | Liquidity Setup | Market Impact | Confirms / Invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | TGA drawdown resumes; SOMA support continues; yields cool. | Risk assets bid. | Confirms: net liquidity > +$50B. Invalidates: TGA rebuild accelerates. |
| BASE | Flat net liquidity; Treasury supply offsets SOMA. | Choppy, range-bound. | Confirms: stable reserves, calm SOFR. Invalidates: auction stress or USD breakout. |
| BEAR | TGA rebuild + bill supply + higher yields. | Risk-off. | Confirms: TGA spikes with rising yields. Invalidates: TGA drawdown and falling yields. |
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Balance sheet / reserves / RRP / TGA | Federal Reserve H.4.1 | Official |
| Verification series | FRED WALCL / WRBWFRBL / WDTGAL / WLRRAL | Official |
| Fed policy / rate path | FOMC statement & minutes | Official |
| Treasury outlook | Quarterly Refunding Statement | Official |
| Funding stress score | FRED SOFR / IORB — 5-business-day avg SOFR−IORB spread (bps) | Official |
| Dollar/yield score | FRED DTWEXBGS / DGS10 — weekly Δ broad dollar (%) × Δ 10Y yield (bps) | Official |
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | H.4.1 Total assets, weekly point-in-time level. |
| Bank reserves | H.4.1 Table 5 'Other deposits held by depository institutions' (weekly reserve balances). |
| TGA | U.S. Treasury, General Account. TGA down is liquidity positive. |
| RRP | Reverse repurchase agreements. RRP up parks cash at the Fed. |
| Basis | Latest week 2026-08-07; previous week 2026-07-31; H.4.1 levels in $M, displayed in $B. |