GLOBAL M2 LIQUIDITY & CREDIT — WEEKLY MEMO
Week Ending 2026-10-16
US plumbing was quiet on the Wednesday snapshot: the TGA was flat at $885.8B, the RRP fell -$6.9B and Fed assets rose +$8.1B, so net liquidity rose an estimated +$15.0B and reserves held above $3T at $3,030.9B. Abroad, China M2 slowed to 7.2% and Japan M2 held at 2.0% in September, and the ECB balance sheet slipped -EUR3.9B as policy portfolios ran off -EUR14.7B. GMLCI eases to 13.00 from 19.00 as Funding/Dollar Stress falls to -30 (HY spreads +12bp to 3.23%) and Risk Transmission to -30 (S&P 500 -1.9%, Nasdaq -2.4%, BTC -1.3%).
GMLCI Score
+13.00
Mild global liquidity support
Global M2 Momentum
+50
Broad money trend
USD-Adjusted M2
+20
FX-adjusted research proxy
Central Bank Liquidity
+0
Fed / ECB / BOJ / PBOC / BOE
Credit Impulse
+0
Quantity, breadth, pricing
Funding / Dollar
-30
HY OAS 3.23%
Risk Transmission
-30
BTC -1.3% wk
Gold (USD/oz)
$4,152
0.7% weekly
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
- US M2 5.7% YoY (2026-08); Euro area M3 3.5% YoY (2026-08).
- China M2 CNY 359.63T, 7.2% YoY (2026-09).
- US HY spreads at 3.23% with a 12bp weekly move.
Restrictive
- China September money and credit are in (PBOC, released October 14): M2 359.63T CNY, +7.2% YoY, down from 7.5% in August and an 18-month low per Reuters. Outstanding aggregate financing to the real economy was 468.17T CNY, +7.1% YoY; cumulative aggregate financing over the first three quarters was 27.46T CNY, 2.63T CNY less than a year earlier, and new yuan loans were 11.52T CNY versus 14.75T CNY, so the credit impulse stays negative.
- Broad USD index moved 0.0% over the weekly window.
- BTC changed -1.3% and gold 0.7% over the week.
Main Warning
- The quiet US week is a timing artifact: the October 15 refunding settlement and tax date fell the day after the H.4.1 snapshot, and the Daily Treasury Statement shows the TGA up +$48.9B to $934.7B that day, so next week's H.4.1 should show a drain the calendar model does not capture. September CPI ran hot at 3.7% y/y (core 2.6%), putting an October 28 hike back in play. The broad-dollar series has not updated past October 9, so the dollar leg of Funding/Dollar Stress is stale; gold is the October 15 LBMA PM fix from a single Bernama weekly report.
POSITIVE GMLCI +13.00 — Mild global liquidity support.
GMLCI — Global M2 Liquidity & Credit Index
GMLCI = 0.30 x Global M2 Momentum + 0.20 x USD-Adjusted M2 + 0.15 x Central Bank Liquidity + 0.15 x Credit Impulse + 0.10 x Funding/Dollar Stress + 0.10 x Risk Transmission
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global M2 Momentum | 30% | +50 | +15.00 |
| USD-Adjusted M2 | 20% | +20 | +4.00 |
| Central Bank Liquidity | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Credit Impulse | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Funding / Dollar Stress | 10% | -30 | -3.00 |
| Risk Transmission | 10% | -30 | -3.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly GMLCI | +13.00 |
| 4-week moving average | +16.62 |
| 13-week moving average | +19.35 |
GMLCI history (release-aware)
| Week | GMLCI | Global M2 | USD-Adj | Credit | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | +13.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-10-09 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-10-02 | +16.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-09-25 | +18.50 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-09-18 | +18.50 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
Show 65 earlier entries
| Week | GMLCI | Global M2 | USD-Adj | Credit | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-09-04 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-08-28 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-08-21 | +24.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-08-14 | +19.00 | +50 | +20 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-08-07 | +27.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-31 | +18.25 | +50 | +20 | +5 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-24 | +21.25 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-17 | +18.25 | +50 | +20 | +5 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-10 | +23.75 | +50 | +20 | +5 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-07-03 | +25.25 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-26 | +12.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-19 | +22.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-06-12 | +8.50 | +50 | +10 | -20 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-06-05 | +14.50 | +50 | +40 | -10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-29 | +22.50 | +60 | +30 | -10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-22 | +11.00 | +50 | +10 | -20 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-15 | +23.00 | +50 | +20 | +10 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SUPPORT |
| 2026-05-08 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-05-01 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-24 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-17 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-10 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-04-03 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-27 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-20 | -7.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-13 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-03-06 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-27 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-20 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-13 | -0.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | MILD GLOBAL LIQUIDITY DRAG |
| 2026-01-30 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-23 | -0.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-16 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-09 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2026-01-02 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-26 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-19 | -7.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-12 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-12-05 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-28 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-21 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-14 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-11-07 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-31 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-24 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-17 | -10.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-10 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-10-03 | +2.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-26 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-19 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-12 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-09-05 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-29 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-22 | -6.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-15 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-08 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-08-01 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-25 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-18 | -3.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-11 | +2.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-07-04 | +7.50 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-06-27 | +5.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
| 2025-06-20 | +0.00 | +0 | +0 | +0 | NEUTRAL / MIXED |
Each weekly score uses only releases public by that week ending; history is not rewritten when later data arrives. The gauge ranks only the FRED-derived 20% market tier — Funding/Dollar Stress plus Risk Transmission — versus frozen 2020+ history. The four judgment components are outside this lens; the full GMLCI is not percentile-ranked.
Market-Stress Alert
| Alert | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Market-Stress percentile (20% tier) | NEGATIVE | Market-Stress (20% tier) = -6.00 ranks in the 19th percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=174). This ranks only Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission; the full GMLCI is not percentile-ranked. |
Global Liquidity Dashboard
Broad money (release-aware)
| Bloc | Level | Growth | Reference Month | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US M2 | $23.34T | 5.7% YoY | 2026-08 | POSITIVE |
| Euro area M3 | — | 3.5% YoY | 2026-08 | POSITIVE |
| China M2 | CNY 359.63T | 7.2% YoY | 2026-09 | POSITIVE |
| Japan M2 | JPY 1295.6T | 2.0% YoY | 2026-09 | POSITIVE |
| UK M4ex | — | 4.4% YoY / +£16.2B flow MoM | 2026-08 | NEUTRAL |
Market transmission (weekly)
| Series | Latest | Weekly Change | As Of | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad USD index | 121.60 | 0.0% | 2026-10-09 | NEUTRAL |
| US HY OAS | 3.23% | 12bp | 2026-10-15 | NEUTRAL |
| S&P 500 | 7,659.44 | -1.9% | 2026-10-16 | NEGATIVE |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,713.03 | -2.4% | 2026-10-15 | NEGATIVE |
| Bitcoin | $81,475 | -1.3% | 2026-10-16 | NEGATIVE |
| Gold (USD/oz) | $4,152.25 | 0.7% | 2026-10-15 | POSITIVE |
Monthly releases are carried forward until a new official release is public. Market series use the latest observation available by the report week. Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission scores are FRED-derived from the market inputs shown above. Gold is a tracked confirmation layer, not an independently scored GMLCI component.
Central Bank Liquidity
| Central Bank | Latest Input | Read | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | US URLI memo (companion report) | NEUTRAL | See the US memo for reserves, TGA, RRP, and net-liquidity plumbing. |
| ECB | EUR 5,943.9B / -3.9B wk | NEGATIVE | Policy-purpose securities changed -14.7B (statement 2026-10-09). |
| BOJ | M2 2.0% YoY | POSITIVE | Money-stock reference month: 2026-09. |
| PBOC | M2 7.2% YoY | NEUTRAL | China September money and credit are in (PBOC, released October 14): M2 359.63T CNY, +7.2% YoY, down from 7.5% in August and an 18-month low per Reuters. Outstanding aggregate financing to the real economy was 468.17T CNY, +7.1% YoY; cumulative aggregate financing over the first three quarters was 27.46T CNY, 2.63T CNY less than a year earlier, and new yuan loans were 11.52T CNY versus 14.75T CNY, so the credit impulse stays negative. |
| BOE | M4ex 4.4% YoY | NEUTRAL | Reference month: 2026-08. |
Global Credit Map
| Credit Layer | Latest | Read | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| US bank credit (H.8) | $19,948.5B / +57.1B wk | POSITIVE | Released 2026-10-16; observation covers 2026-10-07. |
| C&I loans | $2,987.9B / +16.2B | POSITIVE | Business-credit channel. |
| Real-estate loans | $5,853.2B / +4.6B | POSITIVE | Credit-breadth channel. |
| Consumer loans | $1,935.7B / +7.9B | POSITIVE | Household channel. |
| China TSF / RMB loans | Release-aware read | NEUTRAL | China September money and credit are in (PBOC, released October 14): M2 359.63T CNY, +7.2% YoY, down from 7.5% in August and an 18-month low per Reuters. Outstanding aggregate financing to the real economy was 468.17T CNY, +7.1% YoY; cumulative aggregate financing over the first three quarters was 27.46T CNY, 2.63T CNY less than a year earlier, and new yuan loans were 11.52T CNY versus 14.75T CNY, so the credit impulse stays negative. |
| BIS cross-border / FX credit | Quarterly context layer | NEUTRAL | BIS total credit and Global Liquidity Indicators; not a weekly datapoint. |
| Credit pricing | HY OAS 3.23% (12bp) | NEUTRAL | Market-pricing confirmation layer. |
NEUTRAL Credit is scored as a layered transmission check, not a single headline datapoint.
Next Week Watchlist
Scheduled / probable focus
- Watch the October 21 H.4.1 (first read including the October 15 TGA rebuild; model ~-$24B, likely too optimistic), $272B of bill settlements on October 22 and the $13B 20-year reopening, the ECB weekly statement on October 20, euro area September M3 (~October 27), US September M2, and the October 27-28 FOMC.
- Monitor broad USD, HY spreads, and gold for confirmation or invalidation.
- Compare the companion URLI memo: global money can stay supportive while US plumbing drains risk liquidity.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | Setup | Market Impact | Confirms / Invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | USD-adjusted M2 strengthens; China credit broadens; HY spreads stay tight. | Supports equities, EM, BTC, high beta. | Confirms: GMLCI > +40. Invalidates: USD spike or spread widening. |
| BASE | Broad money grows but credit transmission stays mixed. | Selective risk support. | Confirms: GMLCI +10 to +39. Invalidates: China credit weakens further. |
| BEAR | USD-adjusted M2 contracts; credit and funding stress worsen. | Risk-off, high-beta pressure. | Confirms: GMLCI < -40. Invalidates: USD weakens and credit broadens. |
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| US M2 | Federal Reserve H.6 / FRED M2SL | Official |
| Euro M3 / loans | ECB monetary developments | Official |
| ECB balance sheet | ECB weekly financial statement | Official |
| China M2 / TSF | PBOC releases | Official |
| Japan M2 | BOJ money stock | Official |
| UK M4ex | BOE money and credit | Official |
| US bank credit | Federal Reserve H.8 | Official |
| USD / HY / equities / BTC | FRED DTWEXBGS, BAMLH0A0HYM2, SP500, NASDAQCOM, CBBTCUSD | Market |
| Gold (USD/oz) | Public XAU/USD spot snapshots; LBMA Gold Price PM from 2026-09-11 | Market (secondary) |
| Cross-border credit | BIS Global Liquidity Indicators | Official (quarterly) |
Funding/Dollar Stress and Risk Transmission are FRED-derived at week creation. Global M2 Momentum, USD-Adjusted M2, Central Bank Liquidity, and Credit Impulse remain documented research/judgment components until complete keyless feeds are available.