US FED / TREASURY LIQUIDITY — WEEKLY MEMO
Week Ending 2026-08-14
Liquidity drained even as the data case for a September cut built: the TGA rose +$30.1B (now above its own September target) and the RRP +$38.7B, pulling bank reserves -$55.1B back below $3T, while July CPI cooled to 3.4%, PPI was flat, and retail sales fell -0.6%.
URLI Score
-39.25
Mild liquidity drain
Net Liquidity
-$57.4B
Meaningful drain
Bank Reserves
-$55.1B
Reserve drain
TGA Change
+$30.1B
Cash drain
RRP Change
+$38.7B
Cash parked
Fed Regime
Neutral --
3.50%-3.75%
Treasury Outlook
Neutral --
Supportive
Market Bias
RISK OFF
Liquidity drag
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
- July CPI cooled to +3.4% YoY (core +2.5%, both down from June) and PPI was flat, adding to the disinflation case that started with last week's negative payroll print.
- SOFR-IORB averaged -2.40bp, comfortably below the administered floor and reversing the two marginally positive prints from the prior week -- no funding stress despite reserves falling below $3T.
- Equities notched modest fresh highs despite the weak retail-sales print: the S&P 500 +0.4% to 7,785.76 and the Nasdaq +0.1% to 26,729.16.
- China's July money and credit data refreshed: M2 +7.7% YoY (355.51T CNY) and TSF stock +7.4% YoY (463.27T CNY) -- still solidly expansionary even as the pace decelerates from June.
- Japan's July M2 refreshed at +2.2% YoY (1,297.0T JPY), unchanged from June.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly pushed for a 50bp September cut and CME FedWatch moved toward roughly even odds for a September cut as of Aug 12, a shift from prior weeks' pricing.
Restrictive
- Net liquidity fell an estimated -$57.4B this week: the TGA (+$30.1B) and RRP (+$38.7B) both drained reserves, only partly offset by the Fed's +$11.4B balance-sheet growth.
- Bank reserves dropped -$55.1B to $2,947,630M, falling back below the $3T threshold they had crossed above just last week.
- The TGA at $959.4B is now already above the Treasury's own $950B end-September target guided on August 5, with roughly six weeks still remaining -- worth watching for whether this is one week's settlement noise or a faster-than-guided rebuild.
- July retail sales fell -0.6% MoM, missing consensus for a small gain, and China's new RMB loan growth slowed to a record-low +5.1% YoY as bank loans contracted outright in July for the second time in 2026.
- The ECB balance sheet contracted -EUR18.2B, its largest weekly pullback in recent weeks, with policy-purpose securities holdings down -EUR6.5B.
- Bitcoin fell -2.9% to ~$63.0K even as gold pushed toward record levels above $4,400 intraday before settling near $4,365 (+0.7% on the week) -- a haven-over-risk rotation.
Main Warning
- The week's signal is a split between the plumbing and the macro narrative: incoming data (CPI, PPI, retail sales) built the case for a September cut, but the Fed's own balance-sheet mechanics drained liquidity and pushed reserves back under $3T. Next week's FOMC minutes (Aug 19) are the first look at how the July dissenters are processing this data, and the $16B 20-year bond and $8B 30-year TIPS auctions (Aug 19-20) will test long-end demand. The forecast model flags the Aug 15 tax-date / TGA-rebuild window as a low-confidence swing factor for next week's TGA path -- the stored projection is marked needs_manual_review rather than published as a directional call, and this run stops short of auto-deploying as a result.
NEGATIVE URLI -39.25 — Mild liquidity drain.
WEEKLY LIQUIDITY MAP
Liquidity Waterline
Every node is a water tank: the solid fill is this week's level, the dashed line is last week, and the faint line is the 3-month average. Funding sources feed net liquidity, which flows through the risk gate to crypto markets. Fill colour marks liquidity effect, not raw level.
Funding Sources
TGA+$30.1BDRAIN
Fed B/S+$11.4BADD
Reserves-$55.1BWATCH
RRP+$38.7BDRAIN
Net Liquidity
US Net Cash-57.4BDRAIN
Risk Gate
Risk AssetsURLI -39.2DRAIN
Crypto Markets
Crypto Beta$2.25TADD
Meme Beta$25BDRAIN
AddDrainWatchNeutralLast week3-month avg
Liquidity tanks update weekly (Fed H.4.1 / FRED · as of Aug 14, 2026). Crypto & meme market cap and read use the weekly report snapshot (CoinGecko · as of Aug 16, 2026). Homepage and latest weekly memo use the same Waterline snapshot. AI-readable: JSON · Markdown.
What Changed This Week
| Item | Previous | Latest | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,748.6B | $6,760.0B | +$11.4B (+0.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Bank reserves | $3,002.7B | $2,947.6B | -$55.1B (-1.8%) | NEGATIVE |
| TGA | $929.3B | $959.4B | +$30.1B (+3.2%) | NEGATIVE |
| RRP | $319.4B | $358.1B | +$38.7B (+12.1%) | NEGATIVE |
| Fed rate path | — | neutral -- incoming data (CPI, PPI, retail sales) continued to build the disinflation case, but the Fed itself has issued no new signal; minutes from the July 28-29 meeting are not due until August 19 | 3.50%-3.75% | POSITIVE |
| Dollar / yields | — | dollar softened for a second straight confirmed print (H.10 lag) while the 10Y held flat on net -- both legs sit inside the flat band | Broad USD 119.06 (FRED/H.10 DTWEXBGS, 2026-08-07 -- the confirmed print advanced one week from last report's 2026-07-31, but the H.10 index's multi-day publication lag still means no confirmed print past 2026-08-07 as of this report date) | NEUTRAL |
Previous week: 2026-08-07 (H.4.1 weekly levels).
Fed Balance Sheet Detail
| Indicator | Latest | Weekly Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,760.0B | +$11.4B (+0.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Securities held outright | $6,471.5B | +$8.3B (+0.1%) | POSITIVE |
| Treasury securities | $4,538.3B | +$8.3B (+0.2%) | POSITIVE |
| Bank reserves | $2,947.6B | -$55.1B (-1.8%) | NEGATIVE |
| Discount window | $5.7B | +$0.4B (+7.0%) | WATCH |
H.4.1 Wednesday levels in millions of dollars for August 12, 2026. WALCL (total assets), WRBWFRBL (bank reserves), WDTGAL (TGA) and WLRRAL (RRP) verified against FRED for 2026-08-12. Reserve Bank credit ($6,712,859M, +$11,477M) is FRED WOFSRBRBC, the Wednesday-level series (consistent with the 2026-08-13 audit correction that restated this series to the Wednesday-level basis). Securities held outright (WSHOSHO), Treasury securities (TREAST), MBS (WSHOMCB) and Loans (WLCFLL) were taken from FRED at the same Wednesday date, each weekly change computed Wednesday-over-Wednesday against 2026-08-05. The total-assets-minus-Reserve-Bank-credit gap holds near $47.1B ($47,096M this week versus $47,185M last week), confirming the Wednesday-level basis is consistent. Securities held outright rose +$8,330M entirely on the Treasury leg (+$8,330M) with MBS unchanged at $1,930,855M -- a flat MBS Wednesday column, which has now occurred 14 times so far in 2026. Loans (discount window) rose +$372M to $5,691M and the MS Facilities 2020 LLC net portfolio (H41RESPPAAENWW) rose +$97M to $728M, both modest and within normal weekly noise. Bank reserves fell -$55,101M to $2,947,630M, dropping back below $3T one week after first crossing it, as the TGA rose +$30,080M to $959,405M and the RRP rose +$38,749M to $358,117M -- both drains on reserves.
Net Liquidity Calculation
Net Liquidity Change = Fed Balance Sheet Change - TGA Change - RRP Change
| Component | Weekly Change | Effect | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | +$11.4B | POSITIVE | Balance-sheet growth adds liquidity. |
| TGA | +$30.1B | NEGATIVE | TGA up pulls cash into Treasury; TGA down injects it. |
| RRP | +$38.7B | NEGATIVE | RRP up parks cash at the Fed; RRP down releases it. |
| Net liquidity | -$57.4B | MEANINGFUL DRAIN | Sum of the three flows above. |
URLI — US Risk Liquidity Index
URLI = 0.35 x Net Liquidity + 0.20 x Bank Reserves + 0.15 x Fed Rate Path + 0.10 x Treasury Outlook + 0.10 x Funding Stress + 0.10 x Dollar/Yield Pressure
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Liquidity | 35% | -75 | -26.25 |
| Bank Reserves | 20% | -70 | -14.00 |
| Fed Rate Path | 15% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Treasury Outlook | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Funding Stress | 10% | +10 | +1.00 |
| Dollar / Yield Pressure | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly URLI | -39.25 |
| 4-week moving average | -26.00 |
| 13-week moving average | -14.12 |
Observed URLI history
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | -39.25 | -$57.4B | -$55.1B | +$30.1B | +$38.7B | MILD LIQUIDITY DRAIN |
| 2026-08-07 | +41.25 | +$69.2B | +$58.2B | -$41.1B | -$17.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-07-31 | -64.50 | -$128.6B | -$120.4B | +$135.0B | -$15.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-07-24 | -41.50 | -$33.7B | -$35.6B | +$39.4B | -$1.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-07-17 | -38.50 | -$44.9B | -$36.9B | +$46.7B | +$5.6B | NEGATIVE |
Show 56 earlier entries
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | +31.75 | +$59.1B | +$60.4B | -$58.1B | +$10.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-07-03 | +36.75 | +$81.5B | +$122.6B | -$94.5B | +$1.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-26 | +25.75 | +$53.0B | +$18.1B | -$54.7B | +$0.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-19 | -66.50 | -$162.7B | -$175.1B | +$155.4B | +$18.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-06-12 | +29.75 | +$67.0B | +$65.8B | -$44.6B | -$8.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-05 | -33.50 | -$20.9B | -$21.4B | +$3.1B | +$24.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-29 | -41.50 | -$28.2B | -$39.7B | +$60.7B | -$41.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-22 | -23.50 | -$5.7B | -$10.7B | -$25.4B | +$16.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-15 | +31.25 | +$70.7B | +$65.9B | -$55.3B | +$3.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-05-08 | +58.50 | +$134.9B | +$132.3B | -$125.3B | -$0.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-05-01 | -2.00 | +$14.0B | +$4.6B | -$19.1B | -$2.4B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-04-24 | -39.25 | -$66.3B | -$65.6B | +$82.7B | -$14.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-04-17 | -51.50 | -$210.5B | -$203.3B | +$227.4B | -$5.0B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-04-10 | +58.50 | +$119.7B | +$119.1B | -$106.5B | +$5.3B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-04-03 | +21.00 | +$46.6B | +$28.4B | -$33.9B | +$5.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-27 | +29.00 | +$36.9B | +$37.3B | -$38.4B | +$2.8B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-20 | -42.25 | -$66.3B | -$74.3B | +$70.0B | +$5.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-03-13 | +38.25 | +$52.7B | +$59.4B | -$41.2B | +$6.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-06 | -5.00 | +$16.8B | +$9.3B | +$8.0B | -$9.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-02-27 | +41.25 | +$50.4B | +$44.5B | -$49.9B | -$0.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-02-20 | +0.50 | +$4.0B | +$1.5B | -$21.7B | +$8.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-02-13 | +12.00 | +$19.9B | +$21.0B | +$2.8B | -$6.2B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-02-06 | +38.25 | +$63.6B | +$54.6B | -$45.0B | -$0.3B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-30 | -36.75 | -$82.3B | -$73.6B | +$81.5B | +$3.8B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-01-23 | -45.25 | -$96.9B | -$105.2B | +$94.1B | +$5.6B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-01-16 | +29.00 | +$25.2B | +$38.8B | -$6.5B | -$10.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-09 | +53.00 | +$156.2B | +$169.6B | -$89.3B | -$133.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-02 | -61.00 | -$152.6B | -$127.1B | +$71.3B | +$140.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-12-26 | +43.75 | +$95.0B | +$46.9B | -$59.9B | -$10.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-12-19 | -30.00 | -$38.7B | -$40.1B | +$55.6B | +$0.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-12-12 | +56.00 | +$107.2B | +$95.6B | -$102.7B | -$1.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-12-05 | -26.00 | -$25.7B | -$19.8B | +$8.8B | +$0.2B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-11-28 | -5.50 | -$6.9B | -$19.5B | -$1.2B | +$5.1B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-11-21 | +26.00 | +$32.2B | +$34.2B | -$42.3B | -$15.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-11-14 | +31.00 | +$37.4B | +$31.4B | +$0.4B | -$30.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-11-07 | +7.00 | +$21.8B | +$24.0B | -$41.2B | +$5.1B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-10-31 | -55.25 | -$94.3B | -$101.7B | +$78.8B | +$13.0B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-24 | -42.25 | -$66.6B | -$58.6B | +$53.1B | +$6.5B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-17 | -24.50 | -$44.3B | -$45.7B | +$57.9B | -$7.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-10 | +38.25 | +$58.0B | +$54.3B | -$25.3B | -$28.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-10-03 | -34.25 | -$58.2B | -$20.1B | +$61.4B | -$24.5B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-26 | -12.00 | +$11.2B | -$20.7B | -$49.2B | +$37.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-19 | -51.50 | -$125.5B | -$130.6B | +$139.6B | -$11.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-12 | -2.50 | -$16.0B | -$17.0B | +$5.6B | +$14.2B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-09-05 | -26.00 | -$43.0B | -$48.9B | +$66.1B | -$24.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-29 | -44.25 | -$78.9B | -$80.8B | +$69.7B | -$5.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-22 | -29.00 | -$32.7B | -$30.7B | +$10.6B | -$3.1B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-15 | +2.00 | -$4.7B | -$2.0B | +$51.2B | -$43.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-08-08 | +35.00 | +$33.2B | +$30.7B | +$44.9B | -$79.8B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-08-01 | -41.25 | -$59.7B | -$58.7B | +$85.9B | -$41.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-07-25 | -1.50 | -$15.3B | -$16.7B | +$21.5B | -$7.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-07-18 | +23.00 | +$31.4B | +$33.0B | +$1.0B | -$35.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-07-11 | +48.25 | +$84.9B | +$85.5B | -$61.2B | -$21.4B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-07-04 | -42.75 | -$87.3B | -$90.8B | +$37.7B | +$47.1B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-06-27 | +24.50 | +$23.6B | +$24.3B | -$49.3B | +$6.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-06-20 | -53.00 | -$104.1B | -$106.7B | +$106.8B | +$1.1B | NEGATIVE |
Observed URLI history covers completed weekly runs. Historical percentile ranking uses URLI-Core: the four data-derived components (Net Liquidity, Bank Reserves, Funding Stress, Dollar/Yield Pressure), representing 75% of URLI weight, ranked against frozen weekly FRED history since 2020 and shown in the distribution gauge above. The two policy-judgment components and 13-week live average are outside this percentile lens.
Forward View
Projected URLI — 2026-08-21 estimate
| Item | Estimate | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| Mechanical midpoint (review only) | +1.00 | PRELIMINARY |
| Backtested URLI range | -54.00 to +56.00 | RANGE |
| Uncertainty band: net liquidity | -$237.6B to $224.0B | NEUTRAL |
| Range note | Low confidence — tax-date / TGA-rebuild week: big swing possible, direction uncertain. Use net liquidity -$237.6B to $224.0B, not the mechanical midpoint, as the primary read. | WATCH |
| Confidence | Model backtest cleared: RMSE $115.4B vs naive $142.9B; hit rate 52.7%. Low confidence: tax-date / TGA-rebuild timing widens the uncertainty band to 2.0x RMSE; manual review required. | WATCH |
| Backtest gate | RMSE improvement 19.25% | MODEL |
| Component | Projected Change | Method |
|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | +4.2B | Trailing 4-week mean |
| TGA | +10.0B | Coupon net + assumed bill roll |
| RRP | +1.0B | Trailing 4-week mean |
| Net liquidity | -6.8B | Fed BS - TGA - RRP |
Projection track record — current estimator
| Metric | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Scored weeks (N) | 3 | Scored since the 2026-07-21 model change |
| Directional hit rate | 2/3 | Projected regime sign matched realized |
| Range containment | 3/3 | Realized URLI inside the displayed ±band |
| Avg absolute error | 47.8 pts | Mean |projected − realized| |
| Point bias | +14.0 pts | Mean projected − realized (− = bearish skew) |
The projection model changed materially on 2026-07-21 (maturing bills are now assumed to roll rather than counted as Treasury cash outflows). The 10 earlier scored weeks are excluded above because they were produced by the previous estimator.
Model track record: last 12 completed projections hit 6/12; mean absolute URLI error 40.10.
Assumptions
- TGA projection separates coupon cash flow (+10.0B) from bills. Bills are assumed roll (+0.0B); gross settlements and maturities remain $673.0B and $625.0B.
- Fed balance sheet change carries forward the trailing 4-week mean: +4.2B.
- RRP change carries forward the trailing 4-week mean: +1.0B.
- Projected bank reserves use net liquidity as a reserve-identity approximation; actual reserves can differ.
- Fed rate path, Treasury outlook, funding stress, and dollar/yield scores are held at the latest actual week.
- 2026-08-15 tax-date watch: potential Treasury cash inflow / liquidity drain.
Projection is a model-derived scenario with a measured historical error band, not an observed URLI value. It is replaced by actual H.4.1 / TGA / RRP data in the next weekly run.
Next-week liquidity calendar
| Date | Event | Expected Size | Liquidity Effect | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 20-year bond auction ($16B) | $16B, size maintained per the August 5 refunding statement | Settles August 31, outside this window; long-end supply to watch for demand strength | WATCH |
| 2026-08-19 | FOMC minutes (July 28-29 meeting) released, 2:00 p.m. ET | N/A | No direct plumbing effect, but the first look at how the three-dissent hike case is holding up against this week's cooler CPI/PPI and the weak retail-sales print | WATCH |
| 2026-08-20 | 30-year TIPS reopening ($8B) | $8B, size maintained | Long-end inflation-linked supply; settles August 31, outside the window | WATCH |
| Week of 2026-08-17 | Bill auctions: 13-week ($92B) and 26-week ($79B) Aug 17, 6-week ($95B) Aug 18, 17-week Aug 19, 4-week/8-week Aug 20 | ~$266B+ combined, sizes per TreasuryDirect announcement | Bills assumed to roll per the projection model; no net TGA effect unless announced sizes change | NEUTRAL |
| Week of 2026-08-17 | Projected net-liquidity swing: gross settlements ($673B) vs maturities ($625B), bills assumed to roll; Aug 15 tax-date watch flagged as a low-confidence swing factor | Net TGA change of ~+$10B (coupon) projected for the week ending August 21 | The calendar-mechanical model flags tax-date / TGA-rebuild timing as capable of dominating the mechanical bill-roll assumption this week -- projection held at low confidence and marked needs_manual_review | WATCH |
Alerts & Warnings
| Alert | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Major injection / drain | NEUTRAL | Net liquidity -57.4B; no breach of the +/-$100B threshold. |
| Reserve shock | NEGATIVE | Bank reserves -55.1B; inside the +/-$75B shock band. |
| RRP shock | NEUTRAL | RRP +38.7B; below the $50B shock threshold. |
| Fed rate path | POSITIVE | No FOMC meeting this week; the stance remains the July 28-29 hold at 3.50%-3.75% (IORB 3.65%), carrying three dissents in favour of a 25bp INCREASE (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan). This week's data flow leaned further toward a September cut: the July CPI (released Aug 12) cooled to +3.4% YoY (+0.1% MoM) from 3.5% in June, with core CPI at +2.5% YoY (+0.2% MoM) down from 2.6%; the July PPI (Aug 13) was flat for final demand; and July retail sales (Aug 14) fell -0.6% MoM, missing consensus for a small gain. Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly called for the Fed to consider a 50bp cut at the September 16-17 meeting, citing the inflation and labour data. As of Aug 12, CME FedWatch priced roughly even odds (~50%) between a September hold and a cut -- a meaningful shift from prior weeks but still short of a 'clear cut path' being signalled by the Committee itself, which does not meet again until September and has offered no post-meeting communication this week. The score is held at 0 (neutral) rather than moved to +50 because the rubric scores what the Fed has signalled, not what data or Treasury officials are pricing in; the July minutes (Aug 19) are the next scheduled window into the Committee's own thinking. |
| Funding stress | POSITIVE | FRED-derived: -2.40 bps avg SOFR-IORB (2026-08-07 to 2026-08-13, 5 business days): -3.00 bps Aug 7, -2.00 bps Aug 10, -1.00 bps Aug 11, -3.00 bps Aug 12, -3.00 bps Aug 13. This reverses last week's brief crossing into marginally positive territory; the cushion is intact even as reserves fell back below $3T. |
| Historical significance | NEGATIVE | URLI-Core (4 data components, 75% weight) = -39.25 ranks in the 20th percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=337). |
Market Transmission
| Asset | Bias | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| SPX / QQQ | HEADWIND | Mild liquidity drain; index-level liquidity does not support multiple expansion. |
| Small caps / breadth | NEGATIVE | Rate-sensitive; needs reserve support and lower yields. |
| BTC / ETH | HEADWIND | Crypto tracks net liquidity; this week's flow was -$57.4B. |
| High-beta alts | WATCH | Need both a positive URLI trend and BTC leadership to outperform. |
NEGATIVE Liquidity drag.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | Liquidity Setup | Market Impact | Confirms / Invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | TGA drawdown resumes; SOMA support continues; yields cool. | Risk assets bid. | Confirms: net liquidity > +$50B. Invalidates: TGA rebuild accelerates. |
| BASE | Flat net liquidity; Treasury supply offsets SOMA. | Choppy, range-bound. | Confirms: stable reserves, calm SOFR. Invalidates: auction stress or USD breakout. |
| BEAR | TGA rebuild + bill supply + higher yields. | Risk-off. | Confirms: TGA spikes with rising yields. Invalidates: TGA drawdown and falling yields. |
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Balance sheet / reserves / RRP / TGA | Federal Reserve H.4.1 | Official |
| Verification series | FRED WALCL / WRBWFRBL / WDTGAL / WLRRAL | Official |
| Fed policy / rate path | FOMC statement & minutes | Official |
| Treasury outlook | Quarterly Refunding Statement | Official |
| Funding stress score | FRED SOFR / IORB — 5-business-day avg SOFR−IORB spread (bps) | Official |
| Dollar/yield score | FRED DTWEXBGS / DGS10 — weekly Δ broad dollar (%) × Δ 10Y yield (bps) | Official |
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | H.4.1 Total assets, weekly point-in-time level. |
| Bank reserves | H.4.1 Table 5 'Other deposits held by depository institutions' (weekly reserve balances). |
| TGA | U.S. Treasury, General Account. TGA down is liquidity positive. |
| RRP | Reverse repurchase agreements. RRP up parks cash at the Fed. |
| Basis | Latest week 2026-08-14; previous week 2026-08-07; H.4.1 levels in $M, displayed in $B. |