US FED / TREASURY LIQUIDITY — WEEKLY MEMO
Week Ending 2026-10-09
Quarter-end reversed: the TGA fell -$98.3B and the RRP -$28.1B, lifting bank reserves +$140.4B back above $3T to $3,022.1B and net liquidity an estimated +$130.9B.
URLI Score
+44.00
Bullish liquidity backdrop
Net Liquidity
+$130.9B
Huge injection
Bank Reserves
+$140.4B
Reserve build
TGA Change
-$98.3B
Cash injection
RRP Change
-$28.1B
Cash released
Fed Regime
Tightening --
3.75%-4.00%
Treasury Outlook
Neutral --
Neutral
Market Bias
RISK ON
Supportive
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
- Net liquidity rose an estimated +$130.9B: the TGA fell -$98.3B, the RRP -$28.1B and Fed total assets rose +$4.5B.
- Bank reserves rebounded +$140.4B to $3,022.1B, back above the $3T threshold after last week's quarter-end dip.
- Funding stayed calm: SOFR touched the 3.90% IORB floor only once and ended the window at 3.87%, keeping Funding Stress at +10.
- The 10-year eased -6bp to 5.22% and high-yield spreads came in from the 3.24% quarter-end print to 3.15%.
- Risk assets firmed: the S&P 500 rose +1.1% to 7,811.54 and the Nasdaq +0.6% to 27,366.17; H.8 bank credit rose +$20.1B in the week to September 30 with C&I loans +$17.9B.
Restrictive
- The Fed Rate Path score stays at its -80 floor: the September minutes show most participants expecting another hike by year-end.
- Next week reverses part of the gain: about $119B of refunding coupons settle on October 15 with the tax date, and the model projects a +$37B TGA rebuild and a net liquidity drain of about -$31B.
- The projection is low confidence (tax-date week, band widened to 2x RMSE) and is held for manual review.
- Discount-window loans rose again, +$1.2B to $10.0B, and Bitcoin fell -2.3% to ~$82.5K.
- The broad dollar rose +0.9% in the last available H.10 week to 121.38, and the series has not updated past October 2.
Main Warning
- This week's +$130.9B is mostly the mirror image of the quarter-end drain -- the TGA and RRP gave back their window-dressing builds -- so it is a reversal, not a new liquidity trend. The week ahead brings the October 15 refunding settlement (~$119B of coupons) and the individual-extension tax date, which the calendar model expects to rebuild the TGA by about +$37B; tax receipts are not modelled and could make the drain larger, so the projection is flagged low confidence for review. Policy is still in a tightening regime, with the minutes pointing to another hike by year-end. Note that the dollar leg of the Dollar / Yield score reads flat only because FRED's broad-dollar series has not updated past October 2. Watch September CPI on October 14.
POSITIVE URLI +44.00 — Bullish liquidity backdrop.
WEEKLY LIQUIDITY MAP
Liquidity Waterline
Every node is a water tank: the solid fill is this week's level, the dashed line is last week, and the faint line is the 3-month average. Funding sources feed net liquidity, which flows through the risk gate to crypto markets. Fill colour marks liquidity effect, not raw level.
Funding Sources
TGA-$98.3BADD
Fed B/S+$4.5BNEUTRAL
Reserves+$140.4BADD
RRP-$28.1BADD
Net Liquidity
US Net Cash+130.9BADD
Risk Gate
Risk AssetsURLI +44.0ADD
Crypto Markets
Crypto Beta$2.79TADD
Meme Beta$32BADD
AddDrainWatchNeutralLast week3-month avg
Liquidity tanks update weekly (Fed H.4.1 / FRED · as of Oct 9, 2026). Crypto & meme market cap and read use the weekly report snapshot (CoinGecko · as of Oct 11, 2026). Homepage and latest weekly memo use the same Waterline snapshot. AI-readable: JSON · Markdown.
What Changed This Week
| Item | Previous | Latest | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,743.0B | $6,747.6B | +$4.5B (+0.1%) | POSITIVE |
| Bank reserves | $2,881.7B | $3,022.1B | +$140.4B (+4.9%) | POSITIVE |
| TGA | $984.0B | $885.8B | -$98.3B (-10.0%) | POSITIVE |
| RRP | $361.9B | $333.7B | -$28.1B (-7.8%) | POSITIVE |
| Fed rate path | — | tightening -- three weeks after the first hike of the cycle; the September minutes (released October 7) show most participants expecting another increase by year-end, although futures price only a small chance of an October move | 3.75%-4.00% | NEGATIVE |
| Dollar / yields | — | stable by the rubric -- the 10-year fell -6bp to 5.22%, inside the +-8bp band; the broad-dollar series has not updated past October 2 | Broad USD 121.38 (FRED/H.10 DTWEXBGS, 2026-10-02, latest available); no newer H.10 observation in the window | NEUTRAL |
Previous week: 2026-10-02 (H.4.1 weekly levels).
Fed Balance Sheet Detail
| Indicator | Latest | Weekly Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,747.6B | +$4.5B (+0.1%) | POSITIVE |
| Securities held outright | $6,466.8B | +$2.2B (+0.0%) | POSITIVE |
| Treasury securities | $4,566.4B | +$2.2B (+0.0%) | POSITIVE |
| Bank reserves | $3,022.1B | +$140.4B (+4.9%) | POSITIVE |
| Discount window | $10.0B | +$1.2B (+13.7%) | WATCH |
H.4.1 Wednesday levels in millions of dollars for October 7, 2026 (release dated October 8, 2026). All figures are Wednesday levels, not the averages-of-daily-figures column, and every weekly change is computed Wednesday-over-Wednesday against 2026-09-30. Verified against FRED Wednesday-level series at the same date: WALCL (total assets), WOFSRBRBC (Reserve Bank credit), WSHOSHO (securities held outright), TREAST (Treasury securities), WSHOMCB (MBS), WRBWFRBL (bank reserves), WDTGAL (TGA), WLRRAL (RRP), WLCFLL (Loans/discount window) and H41RESPPAAENWW (Net portfolio holdings of MS Facilities 2020 LLC), and against the last (Wednesday) column of the official h41.htm table. Total assets minus Reserve Bank credit is $46,756M versus $46,944M last week, confirming the Wednesday column. Securities held outright rose +$2,223M, all in Treasuries (bills $562.2B on the Wednesday column) under the reinvestment-into-bills regime; MBS were unchanged at $1,898,089M in a non-paydown week. On the liability side the TGA fell -$98,263M to $885,783M as quarter-end coupon cash was spent down, the RRP fell -$28,144M to $333,739M as quarter-end window dressing unwound, and bank reserves rebounded +$140,380M to $3,022,066M, back above $3T. Discount-window loans rose +$1,202M to $10,006M.
Net Liquidity Calculation
Net Liquidity Change = Fed Balance Sheet Change - TGA Change - RRP Change
| Component | Weekly Change | Effect | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | +$4.5B | POSITIVE | Balance-sheet growth adds liquidity. |
| TGA | -$98.3B | POSITIVE | TGA up pulls cash into Treasury; TGA down injects it. |
| RRP | -$28.1B | POSITIVE | RRP up parks cash at the Fed; RRP down releases it. |
| Net liquidity | +$130.9B | HUGE INJECTION | Sum of the three flows above. |
URLI — US Risk Liquidity Index
URLI = 0.35 x Net Liquidity + 0.20 x Bank Reserves + 0.15 x Fed Rate Path + 0.10 x Treasury Outlook + 0.10 x Funding Stress + 0.10 x Dollar/Yield Pressure
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Liquidity | 35% | +100 | +35.00 |
| Bank Reserves | 20% | +100 | +20.00 |
| Fed Rate Path | 15% | -80 | -12.00 |
| Treasury Outlook | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Funding Stress | 10% | +10 | +1.00 |
| Dollar / Yield Pressure | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly URLI | +44.00 |
| 4-week moving average | -16.56 |
| 13-week moving average | -16.67 |
Observed URLI history
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | +44.00 | +$130.9B | +$140.4B | -$98.3B | -$28.1B | BULLISH LIQUIDITY BACKDROP |
| 2026-10-02 | -57.25 | -$82.6B | -$88.2B | +$36.7B | +$41.2B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-09-25 | +15.00 | +$48.6B | +$48.4B | -$44.4B | -$3.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-09-18 | -68.00 | -$116.2B | -$115.0B | +$148.0B | -$25.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-09-11 | +40.50 | +$112.2B | +$107.2B | -$100.7B | -$8.1B | POSITIVE |
Show 64 earlier entries
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | -3.50 | +$19.8B | +$12.5B | -$15.1B | +$1.6B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-08-28 | -29.50 | -$20.3B | -$14.0B | +$23.0B | -$17.5B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-08-21 | -15.50 | -$6.8B | -$16.8B | -$23.0B | +$15.6B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-08-14 | -39.25 | -$57.4B | -$55.1B | +$30.1B | +$38.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-08-07 | +41.25 | +$69.2B | +$58.2B | -$41.1B | -$17.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-07-31 | -64.50 | -$128.6B | -$120.4B | +$135.0B | -$15.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-07-24 | -41.50 | -$33.7B | -$35.6B | +$39.4B | -$1.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-07-17 | -38.50 | -$44.9B | -$36.9B | +$46.7B | +$5.6B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-07-10 | +31.75 | +$59.1B | +$60.4B | -$58.1B | +$10.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-07-03 | +36.75 | +$81.5B | +$122.6B | -$94.5B | +$1.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-26 | +25.75 | +$53.0B | +$18.1B | -$54.7B | +$0.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-19 | -66.50 | -$162.7B | -$175.1B | +$155.4B | +$18.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-06-12 | +29.75 | +$67.0B | +$65.8B | -$44.6B | -$8.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-05 | -33.50 | -$20.9B | -$21.4B | +$3.1B | +$24.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-29 | -41.50 | -$28.2B | -$39.7B | +$60.7B | -$41.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-22 | -23.50 | -$5.7B | -$10.7B | -$25.4B | +$16.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-15 | +31.25 | +$70.7B | +$65.9B | -$55.3B | +$3.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-05-08 | +58.50 | +$134.9B | +$132.3B | -$125.3B | -$0.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-05-01 | -2.00 | +$14.0B | +$4.6B | -$19.1B | -$2.4B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-04-24 | -39.25 | -$66.3B | -$65.6B | +$82.7B | -$14.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-04-17 | -51.50 | -$210.5B | -$203.3B | +$227.4B | -$5.0B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-04-10 | +58.50 | +$119.7B | +$119.1B | -$106.5B | +$5.3B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-04-03 | +21.00 | +$46.6B | +$28.4B | -$33.9B | +$5.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-27 | +29.00 | +$36.9B | +$37.3B | -$38.4B | +$2.8B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-20 | -42.25 | -$66.3B | -$74.3B | +$70.0B | +$5.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-03-13 | +38.25 | +$52.7B | +$59.4B | -$41.2B | +$6.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-06 | -5.00 | +$16.8B | +$9.3B | +$8.0B | -$9.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-02-27 | +41.25 | +$50.4B | +$44.5B | -$49.9B | -$0.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-02-20 | +0.50 | +$4.0B | +$1.5B | -$21.7B | +$8.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-02-13 | +12.00 | +$19.9B | +$21.0B | +$2.8B | -$6.2B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-02-06 | +38.25 | +$63.6B | +$54.6B | -$45.0B | -$0.3B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-30 | -36.75 | -$82.3B | -$73.6B | +$81.5B | +$3.8B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-01-23 | -45.25 | -$96.9B | -$105.2B | +$94.1B | +$5.6B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-01-16 | +29.00 | +$25.2B | +$38.8B | -$6.5B | -$10.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-09 | +53.00 | +$156.2B | +$169.6B | -$89.3B | -$133.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-02 | -61.00 | -$152.6B | -$127.1B | +$71.3B | +$140.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-12-26 | +43.75 | +$95.0B | +$46.9B | -$59.9B | -$10.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-12-19 | -30.00 | -$38.7B | -$40.1B | +$55.6B | +$0.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-12-12 | +56.00 | +$107.2B | +$95.6B | -$102.7B | -$1.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-12-05 | -26.00 | -$25.7B | -$19.8B | +$8.8B | +$0.2B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-11-28 | -5.50 | -$6.9B | -$19.5B | -$1.2B | +$5.1B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-11-21 | +26.00 | +$32.2B | +$34.2B | -$42.3B | -$15.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-11-14 | +31.00 | +$37.4B | +$31.4B | +$0.4B | -$30.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-11-07 | +7.00 | +$21.8B | +$24.0B | -$41.2B | +$5.1B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-10-31 | -55.25 | -$94.3B | -$101.7B | +$78.8B | +$13.0B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-24 | -42.25 | -$66.6B | -$58.6B | +$53.1B | +$6.5B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-17 | -24.50 | -$44.3B | -$45.7B | +$57.9B | -$7.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-10 | +38.25 | +$58.0B | +$54.3B | -$25.3B | -$28.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-10-03 | -34.25 | -$58.2B | -$20.1B | +$61.4B | -$24.5B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-26 | -12.00 | +$11.2B | -$20.7B | -$49.2B | +$37.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-19 | -51.50 | -$125.5B | -$130.6B | +$139.6B | -$11.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-12 | -2.50 | -$16.0B | -$17.0B | +$5.6B | +$14.2B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-09-05 | -26.00 | -$43.0B | -$48.9B | +$66.1B | -$24.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-29 | -44.25 | -$78.9B | -$80.8B | +$69.7B | -$5.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-22 | -29.00 | -$32.7B | -$30.7B | +$10.6B | -$3.1B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-15 | +2.00 | -$4.7B | -$2.0B | +$51.2B | -$43.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-08-08 | +35.00 | +$33.2B | +$30.7B | +$44.9B | -$79.8B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-08-01 | -41.25 | -$59.7B | -$58.7B | +$85.9B | -$41.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-07-25 | -1.50 | -$15.3B | -$16.7B | +$21.5B | -$7.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-07-18 | +23.00 | +$31.4B | +$33.0B | +$1.0B | -$35.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-07-11 | +48.25 | +$84.9B | +$85.5B | -$61.2B | -$21.4B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-07-04 | -42.75 | -$87.3B | -$90.8B | +$37.7B | +$47.1B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-06-27 | +24.50 | +$23.6B | +$24.3B | -$49.3B | +$6.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-06-20 | -53.00 | -$104.1B | -$106.7B | +$106.8B | +$1.1B | NEGATIVE |
Observed URLI history covers completed weekly runs. Historical percentile ranking uses URLI-Core: the four data-derived components (Net Liquidity, Bank Reserves, Funding Stress, Dollar/Yield Pressure), representing 75% of URLI weight, ranked against frozen weekly FRED history since 2020 and shown in the distribution gauge above. The two policy-judgment components and 13-week live average are outside this percentile lens.
Forward View
Projected URLI — 2026-10-16 estimate
| Item | Estimate | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| Mechanical midpoint (review only) | -39.00 | PRELIMINARY |
| Backtested URLI range | -66.00 to +44.00 | RANGE |
| Uncertainty band: net liquidity | -$262.1B to $199.5B | NEUTRAL |
| Range note | Low confidence — tax-date / TGA-rebuild week: big swing possible, direction uncertain. Use net liquidity -$262.1B to $199.5B, not the mechanical midpoint, as the primary read. | WATCH |
| Confidence | Model backtest cleared: RMSE $115.4B vs naive $142.9B; hit rate 52.7%. Low confidence: tax-date / TGA-rebuild timing widens the uncertainty band to 2.0x RMSE; manual review required. | WATCH |
| Backtest gate | RMSE improvement 19.25% | MODEL |
| Component | Projected Change | Method |
|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | +1.7B | Trailing 4-week mean |
| TGA | +37.0B | Coupon net + assumed bill roll |
| RRP | -4.0B | Trailing 4-week mean |
| Net liquidity | -31.3B | Fed BS - TGA - RRP |
Projection track record — current estimator
| Metric | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Scored weeks (N) | 11 | Scored since the 2026-07-21 model change |
| Directional hit rate | 6/11 | Projected regime sign matched realized |
| Range containment | 11/11 | Realized URLI inside the displayed ±band |
| Avg absolute error | 35.7 pts | Mean |projected − realized| |
| Point bias | -10.1 pts | Mean projected − realized (− = bearish skew) |
The projection model changed materially on 2026-07-21 (maturing bills are now assumed to roll rather than counted as Treasury cash outflows). The 10 earlier scored weeks are excluded above because they were produced by the previous estimator.
Model track record: last 12 completed projections hit 11/12; mean absolute URLI error 39.85.
Assumptions
- TGA projection separates coupon cash flow (+37.0B) from bills. Bills are assumed roll (+0.0B); gross settlements and maturities remain $681.0B and $595.0B.
- Fed balance sheet change carries forward the trailing 4-week mean: +1.7B.
- RRP change carries forward the trailing 4-week mean: -4.0B.
- Projected bank reserves use net liquidity as a reserve-identity approximation; actual reserves can differ.
- Fed rate path, Treasury outlook, funding stress, and dollar/yield scores are held at the latest actual week.
- 2026-10-15 tax-date watch: potential Treasury cash inflow / liquidity drain.
Projection is a model-derived scenario with a measured historical error band, not an observed URLI value. It is replaced by actual H.4.1 / TGA / RRP data in the next weekly run.
Next-week liquidity calendar
| Date | Event | Expected Size | Liquidity Effect | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Columbus Day -- US bond market and Federal Reserve closed | N/A | Holiday-shortened week; no Treasury settlements on the day | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-10-13 | 13-week ($95B), 26-week ($82B) and 6-week ($95B) bill auctions | $272B combined, settling October 15 | Bills assumed to roll against maturing par; broadly neutral absent a size change | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-10-14 | September CPI (BLS); 17-week bill auction | N/A | First inflation print since the hike and the soft payrolls report; decides whether the year-end hike signalled in the minutes stays priced out of October | WATCH |
| 2026-10-15 | Settlement of the October refunding (3-, 10- and 30-year, ~$119B) and individual-extension tax date; 4- and 8-week bill auctions | ~$119B of coupons settling | Model projects a +$37B coupon-driven TGA rebuild plus tax receipts -- the main drain risk for the week | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-10-15 | China September money and credit data (PBOC, approximate) | N/A | Updates China M2 and aggregate financing; the credit impulse has been negative | WATCH |
| 2026-10-27 | Next FOMC meeting (October 27-28, 2026) | N/A | Minutes show most participants expect another hike by year-end; futures favour a hold in October | WATCH |
Alerts & Warnings
| Alert | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Huge liquidity injection | POSITIVE | Net liquidity +130.9B breached the +$100B major threshold. |
| Reserve shock | POSITIVE | Bank reserves +140.4B, above the +$75B threshold. |
| TGA rebuild risk | WATCH | The TGA fell -$98.3B to $885.8B in the week after the September 30 quarter-end, reversing more than the +$36.7B coupon build of the prior week and leaving the balance about $64B below the ~$950B end-September assumption from the August 5 Quarterly Refunding Statement. Last week's calendar-mechanical model had projected a flat TGA on assumed bill rolls, so the drawdown was a large upside surprise for liquidity. The week ahead (October 10-16) is the opposite: the October refunding 3-, 10- and 30-year securities (about $119B) settle on October 15 alongside the individual-extension tax date, and the model projects a +$37B coupon-driven TGA rebuild. With a drawdown just behind and a partial rebuild just ahead, the score stays at 0 (neutral). |
| RRP shock | NEUTRAL | RRP -28.1B; below the $50B shock threshold. |
| Fed rate path | NEGATIVE | No FOMC decision this week; the target range stays at 3.75%-4.00% after the unanimous 25bp hike on September 16, with IORB at 3.90%. The minutes of the September 15-16 meeting, released October 7, reported that most participants judged a further increase would likely be appropriate by year-end, so the rubric score stays at -80 (tightening). Market pricing remains cooler after the soft September payrolls report, with a hold the strong favourite for October 28 -- that is pricing, not a change in the Committee's stated path. On the quantity side, Treasury holdings rose +$2.2B (bills) and MBS were flat, so securities held outright rose +$2.2B. The next decision is the October 27-28 FOMC. |
| Funding stress | POSITIVE | FRED-derived: -1.60 bps avg SOFR−IORB (2026-10-02 to 2026-10-08, 5 business days): -2 bp October 2, -1 bp October 5, 0 bp October 6, -2 bp October 7, -3 bp October 8. The score holds at +10. SOFR touched the 3.90% IORB floor once (October 6) and eased to 3.87% by October 8; it never printed above IORB. Reserves rebounded +$140.4B to $3,022.1B as the TGA and RRP fell, although discount-window loans edged up +$1.2B to $10.0B. |
| Historical significance | POSITIVE | URLI-Core (4 data components, 75% weight) = +56.00 ranks in the 96th percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=337). |
Market Transmission
| Asset | Bias | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| SPX / QQQ | SUPPORTED | Bullish liquidity backdrop; index-level liquidity supports multiple expansion. |
| Small caps / breadth | NEUTRAL | Rate-sensitive; needs reserve support and lower yields. |
| BTC / ETH | SUPPORTED | Crypto tracks net liquidity; this week's flow was +$130.9B. |
| High-beta alts | WATCH | Need both a positive URLI trend and BTC leadership to outperform. |
POSITIVE Supportive.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | Liquidity Setup | Market Impact | Confirms / Invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | TGA drawdown resumes; SOMA support continues; yields cool. | Risk assets bid. | Confirms: net liquidity > +$50B. Invalidates: TGA rebuild accelerates. |
| BASE | Flat net liquidity; Treasury supply offsets SOMA. | Choppy, range-bound. | Confirms: stable reserves, calm SOFR. Invalidates: auction stress or USD breakout. |
| BEAR | TGA rebuild + bill supply + higher yields. | Risk-off. | Confirms: TGA spikes with rising yields. Invalidates: TGA drawdown and falling yields. |
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Balance sheet / reserves / RRP / TGA | Federal Reserve H.4.1 | Official |
| Verification series | FRED WALCL / WRBWFRBL / WDTGAL / WLRRAL | Official |
| Fed policy / rate path | FOMC statement & minutes | Official |
| Treasury outlook | Quarterly Refunding Statement | Official |
| Funding stress score | FRED SOFR / IORB — 5-business-day avg SOFR−IORB spread (bps) | Official |
| Dollar/yield score | FRED DTWEXBGS / DGS10 — weekly Δ broad dollar (%) × Δ 10Y yield (bps) | Official |
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | H.4.1 Total assets, weekly point-in-time level. |
| Bank reserves | H.4.1 Table 5 'Other deposits held by depository institutions' (weekly reserve balances). |
| TGA | U.S. Treasury, General Account. TGA down is liquidity positive. |
| RRP | Reverse repurchase agreements. RRP up parks cash at the Fed. |
| Basis | Latest week 2026-10-09; previous week 2026-10-02; H.4.1 levels in $M, displayed in $B. |