US FED / TREASURY LIQUIDITY — WEEKLY MEMO
Week Ending 2026-11-06
Net liquidity rose an estimated +$73.2B, reversing two straight drains: the TGA fell -$79.4B to $936.2B as month-end coupon redemptions exceeded new settlements, Fed assets rose +$2.5B and the RRP rose +$8.7B, lifting reserves +$67.6B to $2,962.8B.
URLI Score
+28.75
Mildly supportive
Net Liquidity
+$73.2B
Meaningful injection
Bank Reserves
+$67.6B
Reserve build
TGA Change
-$79.4B
Cash injection
RRP Change
+$8.7B
Cash parked
Fed Regime
Tightening --
3.75%-4.00%
Treasury Outlook
Neutral issuance
Neutral
Market Bias
RISK ON
Supportive
Executive Conclusion
Supportive
- Net liquidity rose an estimated +$73.2B, above the model's +$44.7B projection: the TGA fell -$79.4B to $936.2B and Fed total assets rose +$2.5B.
- Bank reserves rose +$67.6B to $2,962.8B, recovering most of the prior week's -$74.3B fall.
- Treasury Outlook improves from -30 to 0: Treasury's November 2 estimate assumes an $850B end-December cash balance, below the $922.8B on the November 5 Daily Treasury Statement, and refunding coupon sizes were unchanged.
- Dollar/Yield Pressure rises from 0 to +25: the 10-year fell -10bp to 4.84% and the 2-year -10bp to 4.46% over October 30 to November 5.
- The model projects a near-flat net liquidity week to November 11, with no coupon settlements in the window.
Restrictive
- The RRP rose +$8.7B to $334.5B, a partial offset to the TGA drawdown.
- Funding Stress stays at -20: SOFR averaged +4.6bp above the 3.90% IORB floor and printed above it every day of the window, peaking at +7bp on November 3.
- October payrolls rose +165K against ~65K expected and unemployment fell to 4.1%; CME FedWatch odds of a December hike rose to about 77%, so Fed Rate Path stays at -80.
- HY spreads widened +4bp to 3.48% (November 5) and the S&P 500 fell -3.0% to 7,353.73, while BTC fell -1.7%.
- The $125B refunding settles November 16 against about $97B of maturities, a roughly +$28B TGA rebuild in the window after next.
Main Warning
- This week's injection is largely a month-end calendar effect: coupon maturities on October 31 exceeded the November 2 settlements by about $35B, and the TGA had already fallen from $1,040.2B on October 29. Funding has not eased with reserves: SOFR stayed above IORB every day. The strong jobs report (November 6) falls after this week's yield window, so the +25 Dollar/Yield score may not hold next week; FRED's broad-dollar series has not updated past October 30. The model's next-week projection assumes the $577B of bill settlements and $521B of bill maturities in the window roll, so a net bill pay-up would add TGA pressure the point estimate does not include.
POSITIVE URLI +28.75 — Mildly supportive.
WEEKLY LIQUIDITY MAP
Liquidity Waterline
Every node is a water tank: the solid fill is this week's level, the dashed line is last week, and the faint line is the 3-month average. Funding sources feed net liquidity, which flows through the risk gate to crypto markets. Fill colour marks liquidity effect, not raw level.
Funding Sources
TGA-$79.4BADD
Fed B/S+$2.5BNEUTRAL
Reserves+$67.6BADD
RRP+$8.7BNEUTRAL
Net Liquidity
US Net Cash+73.2BADD
Risk Gate
Risk AssetsURLI +28.8ADD
Crypto Markets
Crypto Beta$2.56TDRAIN
Meme Beta$26BDRAIN
AddDrainWatchNeutralLast week3-month avg
Liquidity tanks update weekly (Fed H.4.1 / FRED · as of Nov 6, 2026). Crypto & meme market cap and read use the weekly report snapshot (CoinGecko · as of Nov 7, 2026). Homepage and latest weekly memo use the same Waterline snapshot. AI-readable: JSON · Markdown.
What Changed This Week
| Item | Previous | Latest | Change | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,745.6B | $6,748.1B | +$2.5B (+0.0%) | POSITIVE |
| Bank reserves | $2,895.2B | $2,962.8B | +$67.6B (+2.3%) | POSITIVE |
| TGA | $1,015.6B | $936.2B | -$79.4B (-7.8%) | POSITIVE |
| RRP | $325.8B | $334.5B | +$8.7B (+2.7%) | NEGATIVE |
| Fed rate path | — | tightening -- the October employment report (+165K payrolls vs ~65K expected, unemployment 4.1%) lifted CME FedWatch odds of a December 8-9 hike to about 77%, and two voters already dissented for a hike on October 28 | 3.75%-4.00% | NEGATIVE |
| Dollar / yields | — | USD & yields down (partial) -- the 10-year fell -10bp to 4.84% while the broad-dollar series has not updated past October 30 | Broad USD 121.67 (FRED/H.10 DTWEXBGS, 2026-10-30, latest available); no newer H.10 observation in the window | POSITIVE |
Previous week: 2026-10-30 (H.4.1 weekly levels).
Fed Balance Sheet Detail
| Indicator | Latest | Weekly Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6,748.1B | +$2.5B (+0.0%) | POSITIVE |
| Securities held outright | $6,464.6B | +$2.2B (+0.0%) | POSITIVE |
| Treasury securities | $4,578.8B | +$2.2B (+0.0%) | POSITIVE |
| Bank reserves | $2,962.8B | +$67.6B (+2.3%) | POSITIVE |
| Discount window | $9.2B | -$0.3B (-3.5%) | POSITIVE |
H.4.1 Wednesday levels in millions of dollars for November 4, 2026 (release dated November 5, 2026). All figures are Wednesday levels, not the averages-of-daily-figures column, and every weekly change is computed Wednesday-over-Wednesday against 2026-10-28. Verified against FRED Wednesday-level series at the same date: WALCL (total assets), WOFSRBRBC (Reserve Bank credit), WSHOSHO (securities held outright), TREAST (Treasury securities), WSHOMCB (MBS), WRBWFRBL (bank reserves), WDTGAL (TGA), WLRRAL (RRP), WLCFLL (loans/discount window) and H41RESPPAAENWW (Net portfolio holdings of MS Facilities 2020 LLC); each prior-week FRED value matches the stored 2026-10-28 level. The official H.4.1 page (Wednesday column) matches: total assets $6,748,145M, Reserve Bank credit $6,701,377M, securities held outright $6,464,646M, Treasuries $4,578,777M, MBS $1,883,522M, TGA $936,248M, reverse repos $334,503M, reserve balances $2,962,804M. Total assets minus Reserve Bank credit is $46,768M versus $46,731M last week, confirming the Wednesday column. Securities held outright rose +$2,195M, all in Treasuries (bills +$1,827M to $573.4B, FRED WSHOBL) under the reinvestment-into-bills regime; MBS were unchanged on the Wednesday level in a non-paydown week. On the liability side the TGA fell -$79,384M to $936,248M as the November 2 month-end coupon settlement ($213B) was smaller than the $248B of coupons maturing October 31; the Daily Treasury Statement matches $936,248M on November 4 and shows $922,752M on November 5. The RRP rose +$8,666M to $334,503M and bank reserves rose +$67,568M to $2,962,804M. Discount-window loans fell -$335M to $9,234M (primary credit $9,219M).
Net Liquidity Calculation
Net Liquidity Change = Fed Balance Sheet Change - TGA Change - RRP Change
| Component | Weekly Change | Effect | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | +$2.5B | POSITIVE | Balance-sheet growth adds liquidity. |
| TGA | -$79.4B | POSITIVE | TGA up pulls cash into Treasury; TGA down injects it. |
| RRP | +$8.7B | NEGATIVE | RRP up parks cash at the Fed; RRP down releases it. |
| Net liquidity | +$73.2B | MEANINGFUL INJECTION | Sum of the three flows above. |
URLI — US Risk Liquidity Index
URLI = 0.35 x Net Liquidity + 0.20 x Bank Reserves + 0.15 x Fed Rate Path + 0.10 x Treasury Outlook + 0.10 x Funding Stress + 0.10 x Dollar/Yield Pressure
| Component | Weight | Score | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Liquidity | 35% | +75 | +26.25 |
| Bank Reserves | 20% | +70 | +14.00 |
| Fed Rate Path | 15% | -80 | -12.00 |
| Treasury Outlook | 10% | +0 | +0.00 |
| Funding Stress | 10% | -20 | -2.00 |
| Dollar / Yield Pressure | 10% | +25 | +2.50 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly URLI | +28.75 |
| 4-week moving average | -23.44 |
| 13-week moving average | -15.94 |
Observed URLI history
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | +28.75 | +$73.2B | +$67.6B | -$79.4B | +$8.7B | MILDLY SUPPORTIVE |
| 2026-10-30 | -57.25 | -$70.2B | -$74.3B | +$70.5B | -$8.2B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-10-23 | -51.75 | -$68.6B | -$61.3B | +$59.3B | +$7.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-10-16 | -13.50 | +$15.0B | +$8.8B | +$0.0B | -$6.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-10-09 | +44.00 | +$130.9B | +$140.4B | -$98.3B | -$28.1B | POSITIVE |
Show 68 earlier entries
| Week | URLI | Net Liquidity | Reserves | TGA | RRP | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | -57.25 | -$82.6B | -$88.2B | +$36.7B | +$41.2B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-09-25 | +15.00 | +$48.6B | +$48.4B | -$44.4B | -$3.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-09-18 | -68.00 | -$116.2B | -$115.0B | +$148.0B | -$25.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-09-11 | +40.50 | +$112.2B | +$107.2B | -$100.7B | -$8.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-09-04 | -3.50 | +$19.8B | +$12.5B | -$15.1B | +$1.6B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-08-28 | -29.50 | -$20.3B | -$14.0B | +$23.0B | -$17.5B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-08-21 | -15.50 | -$6.8B | -$16.8B | -$23.0B | +$15.6B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-08-14 | -39.25 | -$57.4B | -$55.1B | +$30.1B | +$38.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-08-07 | +41.25 | +$69.2B | +$58.2B | -$41.1B | -$17.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-07-31 | -64.50 | -$128.6B | -$120.4B | +$135.0B | -$15.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-07-24 | -41.50 | -$33.7B | -$35.6B | +$39.4B | -$1.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-07-17 | -38.50 | -$44.9B | -$36.9B | +$46.7B | +$5.6B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-07-10 | +31.75 | +$59.1B | +$60.4B | -$58.1B | +$10.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-07-03 | +36.75 | +$81.5B | +$122.6B | -$94.5B | +$1.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-26 | +25.75 | +$53.0B | +$18.1B | -$54.7B | +$0.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-19 | -66.50 | -$162.7B | -$175.1B | +$155.4B | +$18.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-06-12 | +29.75 | +$67.0B | +$65.8B | -$44.6B | -$8.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-06-05 | -33.50 | -$20.9B | -$21.4B | +$3.1B | +$24.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-29 | -41.50 | -$28.2B | -$39.7B | +$60.7B | -$41.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-22 | -23.50 | -$5.7B | -$10.7B | -$25.4B | +$16.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-05-15 | +31.25 | +$70.7B | +$65.9B | -$55.3B | +$3.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-05-08 | +58.50 | +$134.9B | +$132.3B | -$125.3B | -$0.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-05-01 | -2.00 | +$14.0B | +$4.6B | -$19.1B | -$2.4B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-04-24 | -39.25 | -$66.3B | -$65.6B | +$82.7B | -$14.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-04-17 | -51.50 | -$210.5B | -$203.3B | +$227.4B | -$5.0B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-04-10 | +58.50 | +$119.7B | +$119.1B | -$106.5B | +$5.3B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-04-03 | +21.00 | +$46.6B | +$28.4B | -$33.9B | +$5.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-27 | +29.00 | +$36.9B | +$37.3B | -$38.4B | +$2.8B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-20 | -42.25 | -$66.3B | -$74.3B | +$70.0B | +$5.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-03-13 | +38.25 | +$52.7B | +$59.4B | -$41.2B | +$6.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-03-06 | -5.00 | +$16.8B | +$9.3B | +$8.0B | -$9.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-02-27 | +41.25 | +$50.4B | +$44.5B | -$49.9B | -$0.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-02-20 | +0.50 | +$4.0B | +$1.5B | -$21.7B | +$8.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-02-13 | +12.00 | +$19.9B | +$21.0B | +$2.8B | -$6.2B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-02-06 | +38.25 | +$63.6B | +$54.6B | -$45.0B | -$0.3B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-30 | -36.75 | -$82.3B | -$73.6B | +$81.5B | +$3.8B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-01-23 | -45.25 | -$96.9B | -$105.2B | +$94.1B | +$5.6B | NEGATIVE |
| 2026-01-16 | +29.00 | +$25.2B | +$38.8B | -$6.5B | -$10.5B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-09 | +53.00 | +$156.2B | +$169.6B | -$89.3B | -$133.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2026-01-02 | -61.00 | -$152.6B | -$127.1B | +$71.3B | +$140.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-12-26 | +43.75 | +$95.0B | +$46.9B | -$59.9B | -$10.7B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-12-19 | -30.00 | -$38.7B | -$40.1B | +$55.6B | +$0.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-12-12 | +56.00 | +$107.2B | +$95.6B | -$102.7B | -$1.0B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-12-05 | -26.00 | -$25.7B | -$19.8B | +$8.8B | +$0.2B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-11-28 | -5.50 | -$6.9B | -$19.5B | -$1.2B | +$5.1B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-11-21 | +26.00 | +$32.2B | +$34.2B | -$42.3B | -$15.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-11-14 | +31.00 | +$37.4B | +$31.4B | +$0.4B | -$30.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-11-07 | +7.00 | +$21.8B | +$24.0B | -$41.2B | +$5.1B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-10-31 | -55.25 | -$94.3B | -$101.7B | +$78.8B | +$13.0B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-24 | -42.25 | -$66.6B | -$58.6B | +$53.1B | +$6.5B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-17 | -24.50 | -$44.3B | -$45.7B | +$57.9B | -$7.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-10-10 | +38.25 | +$58.0B | +$54.3B | -$25.3B | -$28.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-10-03 | -34.25 | -$58.2B | -$20.1B | +$61.4B | -$24.5B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-26 | -12.00 | +$11.2B | -$20.7B | -$49.2B | +$37.7B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-19 | -51.50 | -$125.5B | -$130.6B | +$139.6B | -$11.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-09-12 | -2.50 | -$16.0B | -$17.0B | +$5.6B | +$14.2B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-09-05 | -26.00 | -$43.0B | -$48.9B | +$66.1B | -$24.4B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-29 | -44.25 | -$78.9B | -$80.8B | +$69.7B | -$5.9B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-22 | -29.00 | -$32.7B | -$30.7B | +$10.6B | -$3.1B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-08-15 | +2.00 | -$4.7B | -$2.0B | +$51.2B | -$43.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-08-08 | +35.00 | +$33.2B | +$30.7B | +$44.9B | -$79.8B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-08-01 | -41.25 | -$59.7B | -$58.7B | +$85.9B | -$41.3B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-07-25 | -1.50 | -$15.3B | -$16.7B | +$21.5B | -$7.7B | NEUTRAL |
| 2025-07-18 | +23.00 | +$31.4B | +$33.0B | +$1.0B | -$35.1B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-07-11 | +48.25 | +$84.9B | +$85.5B | -$61.2B | -$21.4B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-07-04 | -42.75 | -$87.3B | -$90.8B | +$37.7B | +$47.1B | NEGATIVE |
| 2025-06-27 | +24.50 | +$23.6B | +$24.3B | -$49.3B | +$6.9B | POSITIVE |
| 2025-06-20 | -53.00 | -$104.1B | -$106.7B | +$106.8B | +$1.1B | NEGATIVE |
Observed URLI history covers completed weekly runs. Historical percentile ranking uses URLI-Core: the four data-derived components (Net Liquidity, Bank Reserves, Funding Stress, Dollar/Yield Pressure), representing 75% of URLI weight, ranked against frozen weekly FRED history since 2020 and shown in the distribution gauge above. The two policy-judgment components and 13-week live average are outside this percentile lens.
Forward View
Projected URLI — 2026-11-13 estimate
| Item | Estimate | Bias |
|---|---|---|
| Projected URLI point | -11.50 | MILD LIQUIDITY DRAIN |
| Backtested URLI range | -66.50 to +43.50 | RANGE |
| Projected net liquidity | -$113.7B to $113.6B | NEUTRAL |
| Range note | Backtested URLI range -66.50 to +43.50. | NEUTRAL |
| Confidence | Model backtest cleared: RMSE $113.6B vs naive $142.5B; hit rate 53.5%. | WATCH |
| Backtest gate | RMSE improvement 20.29% | MODEL |
| Component | Projected Change | Method |
|---|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | +0.1B | Trailing 4-week mean |
| TGA | +0.0B | Coupon net + assumed bill roll |
| RRP | +0.2B | Trailing 4-week mean |
| Net liquidity | -0.0B | Fed BS - TGA - RRP |
Projection track record — current estimator
| Metric | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Scored weeks (N) | 15 | Scored since the 2026-07-21 model change |
| Directional hit rate | 10/15 | Projected regime sign matched realized |
| Range containment | 15/15 | Realized URLI inside the displayed ±band |
| Avg absolute error | 32.0 pts | Mean |projected − realized| |
| Point bias | -7.3 pts | Mean projected − realized (− = bearish skew) |
The projection model changed materially on 2026-07-21 (maturing bills are now assumed to roll rather than counted as Treasury cash outflows). The 10 earlier scored weeks are excluded above because they were produced by the previous estimator.
Model track record: last 12 completed projections hit 12/12; mean absolute URLI error 28.00.
Assumptions
- TGA projection separates coupon cash flow (+0.0B) from bills. Bills are assumed roll (+0.0B); gross settlements and maturities remain $577.0B and $521.0B.
- Fed balance sheet change carries forward the trailing 4-week mean: +0.1B.
- RRP change carries forward the trailing 4-week mean: +0.2B.
- Projected bank reserves use net liquidity as a reserve-identity approximation; actual reserves can differ.
- Fed rate path, Treasury outlook, funding stress, and dollar/yield scores are held at the latest actual week.
Projection is a model-derived scenario with a measured historical error band, not an observed URLI value. It is replaced by actual H.4.1 / TGA / RRP data in the next weekly run.
Next-week liquidity calendar
| Date | Event | Expected Size | Liquidity Effect | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | 3-year note auction ($58B, Quarterly Refunding); 13-week ($95B) and 26-week ($82B) bill auctions | $58B 3-year settling November 16; bills settle November 12 | Refunding coupons settle after the next H.4.1 window; bills assumed to roll | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-11-10 | October CPI (BLS); 10-year note auction ($42B) | Headline and core CPI for October; $42B 10-year settling November 16 | A hot print would cement December hike pricing (~77%) and keep Fed Rate Path at -80 | WATCH |
| 2026-11-11 | H.4.1 Wednesday snapshot (Veterans Day federal holiday) | No coupon settlements in the November 5-11 window | Model projects net liquidity near flat (~$0B) with bills assumed to roll | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-11-12 | 30-year bond auction ($25B); settlement of $277B of 13-, 26- and 6-week bills; H.4.1 release for Wednesday November 11 | $25B 30-year; $277B of bills | Bills assumed to roll; the bill settlement lands in the following H.4.1 window | NEUTRAL |
| 2026-11-16 | Quarterly Refunding settlement (3-, 10-, 30-year) | $125B settling against about $97B of November 15 maturities (about +$28B new cash) | TGA rebuild of roughly $28B in the November 12-18 window | NEGATIVE |
Alerts & Warnings
| Alert | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Major injection / drain | NEUTRAL | Net liquidity +73.2B; no breach of the +/-$100B threshold. |
| Reserve shock | POSITIVE | Bank reserves +67.6B; inside the +/-$75B shock band. |
| TGA drawdown | POSITIVE | TGA fell -79.4B, injecting liquidity. |
| RRP shock | NEUTRAL | RRP +8.7B; below the $50B shock threshold. |
| Fed rate path | NEGATIVE | No FOMC meeting this week; the target range stays 3.75%-4.00% with IORB at 3.90% after the October 28 hold, at which Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented in favour of a further 1/4-point hike. The October employment report (BLS, November 6) showed payrolls +165,000 against a consensus near 65,000, unemployment down to 4.1% from 4.2%, average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m (+3.1% y/y), and +84,000 of upward revisions to August and September. Press coverage citing CME FedWatch put the probability of a December hike at about 77% after the release, up from about 67%. Because a further hike remains the base case, the rubric score stays at -80 (tightening). October CPI (November 10) is the next test. On the quantity side, securities held outright rose +$2.2B as Treasury-bill reinvestment (+$1.8B) continued and MBS were flat on the Wednesday level. |
| Funding stress | NEGATIVE | FRED-derived: +4.60 bps avg SOFR−IORB (2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05, 5 business days): +5 bp October 30, +5 bp November 2, +7 bp November 3, +4 bp November 4, +2 bp November 5. The score stays at -20. SOFR stayed above IORB on every day of the window, peaking at 3.97% on November 3, even though bank reserves rose +$67.6B to $2,962.8B. Discount-window loans eased -$0.3B to $9.2B. |
| Historical significance | POSITIVE | URLI-Core (4 data components, 75% weight) = +40.75 ranks in the 77th percentile of weeks since 2020 (N=356). |
Market Transmission
| Asset | Bias | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| SPX / QQQ | SUPPORTED | Mildly supportive; index-level liquidity supports multiple expansion. |
| Small caps / breadth | NEUTRAL | Rate-sensitive; needs reserve support and lower yields. |
| BTC / ETH | SUPPORTED | Crypto tracks net liquidity; this week's flow was +$73.2B. |
| High-beta alts | WATCH | Need both a positive URLI trend and BTC leadership to outperform. |
POSITIVE Supportive.
Bull / Base / Bear Scenarios
| Scenario | Liquidity Setup | Market Impact | Confirms / Invalidates |
|---|---|---|---|
| BULL | TGA drawdown resumes; SOMA support continues; yields cool. | Risk assets bid. | Confirms: net liquidity > +$50B. Invalidates: TGA rebuild accelerates. |
| BASE | Flat net liquidity; Treasury supply offsets SOMA. | Choppy, range-bound. | Confirms: stable reserves, calm SOFR. Invalidates: auction stress or USD breakout. |
| BEAR | TGA rebuild + bill supply + higher yields. | Risk-off. | Confirms: TGA spikes with rising yields. Invalidates: TGA drawdown and falling yields. |
Sources & Data Definitions
| Field | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Balance sheet / reserves / RRP / TGA | Federal Reserve H.4.1 | Official |
| Verification series | FRED WALCL / WRBWFRBL / WDTGAL / WLRRAL | Official |
| Fed policy / rate path | FOMC statement & minutes | Official |
| Treasury outlook | Quarterly Refunding Statement | Official |
| Funding stress score | FRED SOFR / IORB — 5-business-day avg SOFR−IORB spread (bps) | Official |
| Dollar/yield score | FRED DTWEXBGS / DGS10 — weekly Δ broad dollar (%) × Δ 10Y yield (bps) | Official |
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Fed balance sheet | H.4.1 Total assets, weekly point-in-time level. |
| Bank reserves | H.4.1 Table 5 'Other deposits held by depository institutions' (weekly reserve balances). |
| TGA | U.S. Treasury, General Account. TGA down is liquidity positive. |
| RRP | Reverse repurchase agreements. RRP up parks cash at the Fed. |
| Basis | Latest week 2026-11-06; previous week 2026-10-30; H.4.1 levels in $M, displayed in $B. |